FWIS3

Scary stuff.

Very scary.

It's not a particularly contagious virus so is more likely to die out than become an epidemic.
Nasty stuff though.

Technically, it's already an epidemic. It's not likely to become a pandemic though. I just always worry about outbreaks like these, because you never know when that magic mutation is going to happen.

If it ever gets to the stage where it's airborne, then we're inn trouble.

FZR1KG wrote:If it ever gets to the stage where it's airborne, then we're inn trouble.

I know...

I think ebola is one of those things you learn in high school biology class that makes you nervous to realize just how fragile we are. At least it was for me, because "it kills people too fast to spread to others" is just really not reassuring when your innards melt if it becomes waterborne or airborne and you catch it.

Btw at this point I recommend everyone check out the movie Pandemic if you haven't yet, as it is a very good but scary assessment of what a pandemic would look like in modern days according to the experts in the field. No exaggerations needed.

Rommie wrote:Btw at this point I recommend everyone check out the movie Pandemic if you haven't yet, as it is a very good but scary assessment of what a pandemic would look like in modern days according to the experts in the field. No exaggerations needed.

Turns out there are a number of movies called Pandemic. Can you give me a link to the one you're referring to?

SciFi Chick wrote:90% fatality rate - no cure

For reasons that I don't think are clear yet, this outbreak is having about a 60% fatality rate. Still very high, but better than 90%. And though there is no cure, it can be treated. The treatment is general support of the person till they recover. And one idea about the lower fatality rate is that doctors are being much more aggressive about treatment, and are seeing patients earlier in the disease process.

SciFi Chick wrote:

Rommie wrote:Btw at this point I recommend everyone check out the movie Pandemic if you haven't yet, as it is a very good but scary assessment of what a pandemic would look like in modern days according to the experts in the field. No exaggerations needed.

Turns out there are a number of movies called Pandemic. Can you give me a link to the one you're referring to?

Sorry, wrong one, I meant Contagion!

Pandemic is a fun computer game where you design viruses to wipe out humanity. It's surprisingly hard because the second there's a whiff of something screwy Madagascar closes its ports, that bastard.

Rommie wrote:

SciFi Chick wrote:

Rommie wrote:Btw at this point I recommend everyone check out the movie Pandemic if you haven't yet, as it is a very good but scary assessment of what a pandemic would look like in modern days according to the experts in the field. No exaggerations needed.

Turns out there are a number of movies called Pandemic. Can you give me a link to the one you're referring to?

Sorry, wrong one, I meant Contagion!

I saw that movie. It was pretty good. Sad though. Of course, if you manage to make a movie about a worldwide pandemic that isn't sad, something is wrong.

SciFi Chick wrote:

Rommie wrote:

SciFi Chick wrote:

Rommie wrote:Btw at this point I recommend everyone check out the movie Pandemic if you haven't yet, as it is a very good but scary assessment of what a pandemic would look like in modern days according to the experts in the field. No exaggerations needed.

Turns out there are a number of movies called Pandemic. Can you give me a link to the one you're referring to?

Sorry, wrong one, I meant Contagion!

I saw that movie. It was pretty good. Sad though. Of course, if you manage to make a movie about a worldwide pandemic that isn't sad, something is wrong.

Did you ever read the short story, The Giving Plague, by David Brin. He has a free version on the web.

I won't exactly call it non-sad, but it is a very different idea about such things.

Oh, Christ - I just realized that this outbreak is occurring in countries that border Mali.

Mali is currently in the middle of a civil war. Large portions of the country have no effective government. There are mass displacements and movements of people across the country, and many are living in cramped refugee camps with insufficient medical care or hygiene. Now, that's mostly in the north and away from the countries where this outbreak is currently happening... but this particular outbreak has already spread by air travel within the region.

Look at this:



All I have to say is this: "Fuck."

Are you heading there?? Then don't sweat it.

...I was rather more concerned for the people who live there.

The Supreme Canuck wrote:...I was rather more concerned for the people who live there.

It's hard to get... Ebola is introduced into the human population through close contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected animals. In Africa, infection has been documented through the handling of infected chimpanzees, gorillas, fruit bats, monkeys, forest antelope and porcupines found ill or dead or in the rainforest.

Ebola then spreads in the community through human-to-human transmission, with infection resulting from direct contact (through broken skin or mucous membranes) with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and indirect contact with environments contaminated with such fluids. Burial ceremonies in which mourners have direct contact with the body of the deceased person can also play a role in the transmission of Ebola. Men who have recovered from the disease can still transmit the virus through their semen for up to 7 weeks after recovery from illness.
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/

The Supreme Canuck wrote:...I was rather more concerned for the people who live there.

I know how you feel. It's made an appearance in a city of 20 million people. I can only hope it doesn't spread there.

I'm aware, brite. Fluid transfer is the primary vector. Ebola also causes severe gastrointestinal distress - diarrhea and vomiting. Fluids.

Tell me what happens when someone gets those symptoms in a cramped place with inadequate hygiene and no water treatment. Like a refugee camp. Or an African capital city with extensive slums and a distrust of doctors. Or on an airliner, where the authorities allow the passengers to continue on their way after they deplane.

This is a powder-keg.

For what it's worth, my understanding is the parts of Mali with civil unrest are about 500 miles away from this outbreak. Which trust me, in Africa is a huge distance... several days journey.

I was reading yesterday about people speculating why Ebola never had a mass worldwide outbreak on the level of the flu, even in a milder form. The short answer is they think it didn't exist before the 70s and every doctor in that part of the world has it drilled into their heads to notice the symptoms, so it's actually a success story on how dedicated doctors are there. (Local docs aside, I've known many a Doctors without Borders student from med school, and you will never meet more wonderful souls than those who dedicate their lives to helping people... then go to dangerous countries to help the people there.)

So yes, I am not downplaying how bad it could be, but as y'all know I'm an optimist that things aren't as bad as things people think they are. Even with ebola.

On my list of things that have a probability to kill me (and a big chunk of the world), the various bird/pig flu strains that spring out of China on a regular basis are much higher on my list than Ebola.

Of course, for me personally, none of those compare to the probability of that idiot texting on his cell phone in back of me on I-271.

Rommie wrote:For what it's worth, my understanding is the parts of Mali with civil unrest are about 500 miles away from this outbreak. Which trust me, in Africa is a huge distance... several days journey.

Sure. But the people fleeing the northern part of the country are going to be displaced, in large numbers, into the southern region of the country... which borders the region of the outbreak.

So yes, I am not downplaying how bad it could be, but as y'all know I'm an optimist that things aren't as bad as things people think they are. Even with ebola.

Well, I think you know that I've never been an optimist.

Swift: Again, my concern isn't for my own health and safety. The probability that ebola will reach North America is so low as to be ignorable. My concern is for people in the region - especially people in densely-populated areas. If it gets out in a city or a slum or a camp, that's a genuine nightmare scenario.

I've read a book by John J Nance called "Pandora's Clock", made into a tv movie "Doomsday Virus" about a flight believed to be carrying a passenger with a deadly form of influenza. This author's books (airline thrillers) are the perfect thing to be reading on long flights.

Some years later the sars outbreak, brought home fears of how easily diseases could be transferred globally these days.