Coronavirus

[Rommie]

I don't think we had a thread on this?

I think we had a bit of a turning point this weekend with the virus with the news of many more outbreaks in Italy, Iran, and South Korea. Sounds like the definition of a pandemic to me. And it's pretty clear to me that if nations with advanced medical systems are having trouble keeping a handle on it, a lot of people are really screwed now that you're seeing cases in places with far less advanced medical systems like Iran (and the first case in Afghanistan). If it's mainly killing older people or other immunocompromised ones, it's obviously going to get really bad in areas with bad hygiene and where life is physically much harder. (Like good Lord, it getting into a refugee camp.)

I mean, I know you're still more likely to die of the flu, blah blah blah. But it certainly doesn't seem like a picnic either. And while it sounds like I'd survive it if I personally got it eventually, there's plenty of folks I know who probably shouldn't be getting coronavirus or the flu.

By the way, it's also interesting at work because normally you see people coming through from China. Met a new postdoc last week who just made it out before they shut down the border to all Chinese passports, then went into self-imposed quarantine for two weeks before starting work. A little more weird was a few weeks ago we had a talk by a Chinese student who clearly wanted to make a light joke about coronavirus at the start of his talk by saying he's from Beijing... but then mentioned he flew on the same flight as the guy who got coronavirus in Massachusetts, just three days later. Yeah dude, not your best joke.

Strange times. I do wonder in particular though what's going to happen to air travel now that it's in multiple countries an if it becomes an even greater pandemic.

[geonuc]

The global stock markets are starting to take notice as well.

[geonuc]

I mean, I know you're still more likely to die of the flu, blah blah blah. But it certainly doesn't seem like a picnic either. And while it sounds like I'd survive it if I personally got it eventually, there's plenty of folks I know who probably shouldn't be getting coronavirus or the flu.

Me, for example. Having no spleen, I'm at increased risk for bacterial infections (such as pneumonia) resulting from contracting flu-like viruses.

[Swift]

I'm torn.

On the one hand, the media reports and even the discussion on BAUT/CQ is approaching panic levels. On the other hand, if you compare it to the seasonal flu, the panic seems overblown and out of proportion (seasonal flu is still sickening and killing orders of magnitude more people, and no one is setting up a quarantine).

I'm off on a cruise starting Friday (small ship, 300 passengers, in the Caribbean). The cruise line has told us they are going to be taking our temperatures and we will not be allowed on board if you are higher than 100F. I don't need much to get me worried and worked up and this getting me worried and worked up. I don't want my vacation ruining over this stupid virus.

[SciFiFisher]

I think the main reason it is causing so much havoc is that we currently don't have a vaccine for it. Even though it is less lethal than the flu. Also, it did a major hit to China's ability to deliver all those goods everyone buys from them. So, now the markets are panicking. And everyone notices when rich people in expensive suits start panicking.

[Rommie]

Vaccines are funny these days, aren't they? Think the anti-vaxxers will just accept getting the coronavirus?

Re: the markets, we were a bit overdue for a recession anyway, so I wonder if this is just going to accelerate that. But then if I had a crystal ball I would be a lot richer.

[lady_*nix]

I suspect Sanders winning Nevada at the same time had something to do with it too, TBH. Feels a lot of times like half the reason "higher taxes are bad for the economy" is just that plutocrats shit themselves en mass at the thought of giving up even a tiny bit of their wealth, and the rest of our economy revolves (or is assumed to revolve) around them.

Re coronavirus. Per this Wikipedia page (YMMV)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_h ... lity_rates

The 1918 Spanish Flu had a case fatality rate around 2.5%, Lassa fever around 1%, malaria around 0.3%. Influenza is usually around 0.1% COVID-19 is around 3.5%, though that's probably estimated quite high - mild cases often go undiagnosed, which is good news in terms of mortality rate but very bad news in terms of the disease spreading.

My point here though is that a lot of the really feared diseases do not have very high case fatality rates. A plague doesn't have to be as deadly as e.g. Ebola to really fuck up a country's economy and social fabric when it starts spreading on a large scale.

So... don't panic. But please, please, please do wash your fucking hands.

[Rommie]

Yeah, I read recently that Typhoid Mary probably wouldn't have killed so many people if she'd just washed her fucking hands.

I saw the CDC now says it's a when, not if, for when the coronavirus hits the USA. I decided what to do a few weeks ago when that happens by the way if that happens to be in Boston first, which is drive up to New Hampshire at the first hint that they'll close the university and just work remotely from up there until things calm down. It'd be different in summer, but you can be up there for weeks this time of year without seeing another person once you're out of a town. Mind, I think of this less as a total breakdown of society is inevitable, but more I think it'd get boring as shit to be cooped up in my apartment and it'd be nice to take a walk sometime.

I might get a few extra cans of beans on the shelf next time I'm up there though.

[lady_*nix]

TBH my main thought for myself is to stock up on hand sanitizer, and get both my inhaler prescriptions filled in advance. (As someone with asthma, any respiratory infection is potentially dangerous for me.) But I don't want to leave my friends here behind, and don't have the resources or skillset to up and move to the countryside anyway. (Mainly lacking: significant steady income, competence as a driver, and access to dependable medical care for my chronic health needs.) I also don't really have the storage space to "stock up" on anything in situ. So yeah, just washing my hands and praying, I guess.

I'm not particularly worried for myself, but I'm terrified for a lot of people I know. Many of my friends have worse chronic health stuff going on than I do, and are too poor and not respectable looking enough to be treated well in an ER. Plagues as a rule are absolute hell on the poor and oppressed, and a lot of people I'm close to now count among that number.

Edit: I'm also worried about what the Trump administration will try under cover of national emergency. Because you can bet they will try something nasty.

[Rommie]

Re: Trump, I think the bigger concern is less that but rather that this has a good chance to be his first serious crisis as president that affects a lot of people from an outside source, and they're likely super underprepared for it. I'm thinking like President Bush and Katrina. (Puerto Rico was also terrible under his watch, but no one seemed to care- I don't think that would be the case with a pandemic.)

I realize I'm pretty lucky because yeah we have a car, so the biggest speculation is more academic than life or death. And if I get it I'm in for likely an unpleasant illness, but not a deadly one, so I more worry for friends and relatives. Hand sanitizer really doesn't do much for a virus btw, better to stock up on soap and remember to wash your hands for at least 30 seconds regularly.

Also, I hope your friends wouldn't automatically write off going to the ER if it came to a serious situation like a pandemic because how they might be treated. It sounds like a good way to not only kill yourself but also others around you who you care about.

[lady_*nix]

Oof, thanks for the info re hand sanitizer. *sighs heavily*

For the most part, I'm pretty sure none of my friends would "automatically write off going to the ER"; though it's hard to say, because some have been indoctrinated through abuse to avoid medical care even during crises. (In which case I'll be happy to provide the pressure to get them to make the damn ER trip, gods know I play mother hen often enough these days.) It's more that many of them get their symptoms dismissed or are accorded low priority as a matter of routine. Might be different during a pandemic, IDK.

Also there's the whole "high deductible, bad insurance, too poor to afford an ER visit" thing. Have I mentioned privatized healthcare sucks for dealing with epidemics? If you want people to stay on top of medical stuff, you need the burden of reacting to a false alarm to be low enough that most people will risk it; as things are being proactive is more or less the domain of the wealthy.

(And like none of this is to discount personal responsibility, just. In the US there are significant social forces against getting adequate care for most people. I'd hope things are different during a pandemic, but you have to factor that stuff in.)

Re: Trump administration and disaster. Yeah, that's fair, but with the election coming up they're probably casting around for excuses to interfere further with the democratic process. Also they've been pushing an ethnic cleansing narrative (and policies) very heavily since the campaign days, and I expect that to figure into anything they implement as far as COVID-19.

[SciFiFisher]

The Trump administration is dealing with the Coronavirus the same way it deals with anything. Trump's budget cuts funding for the CDC and other health initiatives. And they are asking Congress for extra money supposedly to deal with coronavirus. And they are suggesting that part of that money comes from other programs.

[Rommie]

I found this an exceptionally good, if sobering, piece on the context for the coronavirus- You're Likely to get the Coronavirus

Short answer is you're 40-70% likely to get the coronavirus at some point, but it turns out a lot of people who test positive for it show no symptoms. The issue there of course is you don't know until you test people, so there's likely 100-200 people in the USA right now who have it. Yay.

My brother was chatting with some fancy bankers yesterday who mentioned their analysis is predicting 1% of the GDP will be lost in the next quarter due to coronavirus. That's a lot of money.

[Swift]

I'm currently pretty close to freaking out.

I'm not so much concerned about getting sick or dying (though given my various medical problems, I'm probably at a higher risk level), but we leave for our vacation in a day and a half and I'm worried that something will screw it up, like someone on the ship gets sick and we're quarantined for 2 weeks.

The corporation I work for sent out this travel advisory email today banning people from traveling to China, southeast Asia, and Italy, and anyone who has visited those regions has to not come into the office for 2 weeks. I'm one sick person in St. Lucia away from that.

I keep oscillating between this is overblown to I should be scared shitless about this. Articles like the one Rommie posted don't help (I'm not faulting you Rommie).

And there is nothing I can do about any of this. If I could get all my money back and not go, I'd probably do that, but it isn't an option. And I can't just piss away all the money this cost us just on fears.

Sorry for ranting guys.

[SciFiFisher]

I'm currently pretty close to freaking out.

I'm not so much concerned about getting sick or dying (though given my various medical problems, I'm probably at a higher risk level), but we leave for our vacation in a day and a half and I'm worried that something will screw it up, like someone on the ship gets sick and we're quarantined for 2 weeks.

The corporation I work for sent out this travel advisory email today banning people from traveling to China, southeast Asia, and Italy, and anyone who has visited those regions has to not come into the office for 2 weeks. I'm one sick person in St. Lucia away from that.

I keep oscillating between this is overblown to I should be scared shitless about this. Articles like the one Rommie posted don't help (I'm not faulting you Rommie).

And there is nothing I can do about any of this. If I could get all my money back and not go, I'd probably do that, but it isn't an option. And I can't just piss away all the money this cost us just on fears.

Sorry for ranting guys.

Rant away. I did have a conversation of sorts on FB with someone who is a researcher for a big Pharma company who was adamant that the methodology being used to report the mortality rate was inflating the percentage artificially. She swears the real mortality rate is very low. And several sources I was able to find online stated that the *real* mortality rate is probably much lower than originally estimated because a very large number of people who get the virus have cold-like symptoms and never get diagnosed or treated. I don't know if that will make you feel better but there it is.

[Swift]

I'm currently pretty close to freaking out.

I'm not so much concerned about getting sick or dying (though given my various medical problems, I'm probably at a higher risk level), but we leave for our vacation in a day and a half and I'm worried that something will screw it up, like someone on the ship gets sick and we're quarantined for 2 weeks.

The corporation I work for sent out this travel advisory email today banning people from traveling to China, southeast Asia, and Italy, and anyone who has visited those regions has to not come into the office for 2 weeks. I'm one sick person in St. Lucia away from that.

I keep oscillating between this is overblown to I should be scared shitless about this. Articles like the one Rommie posted don't help (I'm not faulting you Rommie).

And there is nothing I can do about any of this. If I could get all my money back and not go, I'd probably do that, but it isn't an option. And I can't just piss away all the money this cost us just on fears.

Sorry for ranting guys.

Rant away. I did have a conversation of sorts on FB with someone who is a researcher for a big Pharma company who was adamant that the methodology being used to report the mortality rate was inflating the percentage artificially. She swears the real mortality rate is very low. And several sources I was able to find online stated that the *real* mortality rate is probably much lower than originally estimated because a very large number of people who get the virus have cold-like symptoms and never get diagnosed or treated. I don't know if that will make you feel better but there it is.

Thanks for the response... I'm not sure if it makes me feel better or worse. As I said, I'm more worried about life disruptions than death. Oh, and I have a tiny bit of a cold at the moment, a little sniffle, I'm sure that makes me Typhoid Mary.

[Rommie]

Yeah, I'm definitely also of the opinion that statistically we might see fewer people die as a net this year due to coronavirus fears, as it will keep normal colds and flus from spreading as well and those kill more people!

But yeah swift, feel free to rant away as I know I'd be a little anxious about making the right decision too. Being stuck in your room for two weeks on a cruise ship only to then undergo two weeks of quarantine when you get back to the USA sounds a. disruptive to one's life, and b. boring as hell and I'd prefer to avoid it. I somewhat fear less the virus and more others' reaction to it (there was a pretty funny old Italian guy on the news saying people were less freaked out when World War II started, and that was far more deadly).

[Sigma_Orionis]

What she said

[Rommie]

So, I guess the cat's out of the bag on the US side, huh?

I've got to say, I feel so awful for those at that senior center and the families of people there. For all the talk about how "coronavirus isn't bad for most people" that is literally the vulnerable population everyone was worried about.

Thing two to wonder about, next weekend F and I were going to head down to Florida to see my parents because my pregnant sis and toddler niece were going to do the same. Dad is healthy but 70+, so I'm like geez this is officially the definition of vulnerable populations. I guess we'll just see how this all plays out and heed any official guidelines.

[SciFiFisher]

So, I guess the cat's out of the bag on the US side, huh?

I've got to say, I feel so awful for those at that senior center and the families of people there. For all the talk about how "coronavirus isn't bad for most people" that is literally the vulnerable population everyone was worried about.

Thing two to wonder about, next weekend F and I were going to head down to Florida to see my parents because my pregnant sis and toddler niece were going to do the same. Dad is healthy but 70+, so I'm like geez this is officially the definition of vulnerable populations. I guess we'll just see how this all plays out and heed any official guidelines.

The good news is that if your dad is in reasonably good health his age is just one factor among many that make him vulnerable.

[Rommie]

F came back yesterday from Holland, which now has like two dozen cases, and there was no medical check at all. They did ask him if he visited Iran or China recently at the airport in Holland, but not Italy.

Just thought that was interesting.

[SciFiFisher]

The glass may be half full. The World Health Organization (WHO) has stated that the Coronavirus is not as contagious as the flu. I also saw an article that stated that children don't seem to be getting hit as hard by the virus as adults. The half empty part of the glass is that WHO is claiming the mortality rate is around 3.5%. I still think that number is more of an educated guess than a real hard statistic. More on the half-full side: If it is related to the flu or the "common cold" there is a very good chance they can create a vaccine.

[Rommie]

Well, new things we don't know are scary of course. But I'm definitely happy that kids don't seem as affected- obviously it's terrible anyone is dying from this, but at least parents are saved that particular serious stressor.

I also think ultimately it's just really tough to pin things down like a mortality rate for a disease we've known about for only two months. How many people had a cold in the Seattle area for the last few weeks for example who won't be tested?

Btw, another random one. In early January my sister went to a fancy conference in Vegas for work. She was convinced after the fact that Steve Wozniak and his wife had coronavirus at the time but no one recognized it- they had just gotten off a cruise in China with terrible cold/fever symptoms, and were holed in their hotel room most of the time when not mingling with others (though thankfully skipped my sister's work stuff). And now Wozniak has said he might have been patient zero! Sis is feeling vindicated with her armchair assessment right now.

[Rommie]

I got an email last night from this fancy teaching thing for astronomers I got accepted/ got full funding to (don't remember if I mentioned it here?) which was going to have a session in Monterey, CA in early April and another in Houston in late April. They basically said they're going to consult with experts about coronavirus risk and decide on whether to cancel or not within the next week, but the part where they said "don't buy your ticket yet if you haven't until we make a final decision" is telling.

Spoiler: I already not only got my ticket to Monterey, but also San Francisco to Amsterdam for my PhD thesis defense. What a headache changing that latter one is going to be!

I really hope they don't cancel.

[pumpkinpi]

A vacay in Monterey isn't so bad! Go anyway.

I would not mind if this led to a shift in our culture away from shaking hands as a greeting. That's always bothered me. I'm going to stop doing it myself, just offer a wave if anyone extends their hand.