FWIS3

So it's been over a week now. What do you guys think?

I wrote up a little analysis for my family on Sunday that I'm just gonna repost here (note, I am a big fan of the show Air Crash Investigation hence all the links etc)-

So, my understanding is from articles like this (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-1 ... erted.html) that people are focused on the satellite track in the Indian Ocean as there's too much military radar in Asia for the plane to be undetected there. So why would that be? Well, whoever did this was likely an experienced pilot because he knew just when to turn off the transceivers and just where to fly to evade detection out to sea (the Malaysian military radar was a secret until they released the info a few days ago, that's why they were reluctant to announce they had it) by following various set beacons. Second, these days a Boeing 777 has a door that's impossible to unlock from the outside for security reasons, so it seems like one pilot may have left and the other locked the door and started his little tour of remote oceans, with the intent of never being found.

With that in mind suicide seems likely (it has happened before where a pilot brought down the plane, EgyptAir 990- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QYJZBaQCds ), but why would you try to make the plane disappear so it's never found? Well it turns out in the event of an accident where a plane crash happens and there are fatalities crew members including pilots have their families get money from the airline as compensation. If the records show that you drove the plane into the ocean, however, you don't get said compensation as it was not an accident... so I'm betting that we'll soon learn one of the pilots had a problem with betting or wherever else his money issues came from, and wanted to kill himself so his family would be provided for (this has already been attempted in the past but thwarted- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETvD1-vMpfM). So if he drives the plane to the southern Indian Ocean literally thousands of miles from where anyone is looking, the odds of anyone ever figuring things out are seriously high and his family gets taken care of. Note so far what little we know of this plane are all from systems even an experienced pilot wouldn't know of (and while I forget, his random movement before leaving the military radar would position him well to go around Indonesia instead of flying over it).

Now it's been a week, and there's still a decent chance of some radar stuff coming to light (though governments are reluctant to declassify I'm sure), but the fact of the matter is it's 1,000km from the coast of Australia where this plane likely went down when the fuel ran out. The ocean is big and while some wreckage may well be found it's a big area and already had a lot of time to disperse, so figuring out where the currents have taken the wreckage is going to be an incredibly difficult task. This is doubly important because a plane's black box beacon gives off a ping for 30 days after it crashes into water before the power runs out, and they already missed a week... this is not good. Even in the case of Air France 447 that crashed into the Atlantic off Brazil (see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHduB-knlt0 or this amazing article- http://www.popularmechanics.com/technol ... 47-6611877) they found wreckage within 24 hours and it took 2 years to find the plane itself, and that had no subterfuge.

So if I had to place money on it we're going to learn about financial troubles soon and find wreckage drifting on the ocean which will give you a good idea of things, but the plane itself won't be found for years if at all. But in that sense it won't matter- black boxes only record for an hour for voice data so the taking over part would be overwritten (and if you just don't say anything for an hour you won't learn anything from that), and the data recorder will just show a perfectly running plane dropping into the ocean when its fuel ran out.

Over, and out.
-Rommie

PS- Bonus, the flight data recorders: most people don't realize a pilot can actually turn those off. However, a few years ago there was a crash in Indonesia where it seems the pilot turned them off and then crashed the plane (see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ig9LE0Vp1YM), after which all new recorders record for 10 minutes on a battery even if you flip the switch on them (the black boxes are actually in the back of the plane, so doubtful the pilot could go back and get them in this case if he's locking everyone out). But then considering he could easily just have the crucial part overwritten as I've described above, this is not likely IMO.

My initial thought was hijackers when they reported that two passports used to board the plane were stolen. The fact that there has been no trace of the plane or the passengers for over a week makes your theory pretty plausible.

Aliens, clearly.

Here is a write up of a very simple theory. There was an electrical fire, and the pilot turned left to try to get to the closest airport. Then eventually "the flight crew was overcome by smoke and the plane continued on the heading, probably on George (autopilot), until it ran out of fuel or the fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed."

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh ... ical-fire/

True or not, that's the answer I prefer.

Tommy knockers.

Langoliers?

That's the one! lol

pumpkinpi wrote:Here is a write up of a very simple theory. There was an electrical fire, and the pilot turned left to try to get to the closest airport. Then eventually "the flight crew was overcome by smoke and the plane continued on the heading, probably on George (autopilot), until it ran out of fuel or the fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed."

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh ... ical-fire/

True or not, that's the answer I prefer.

Two things though-

1. This turn-to-land deviation observed on military radar would never allow the flight path to intercept on of the arcs reported to be the last trace of the aircraft.

2. It has been reported by NYT and others that 3 waypoints were loaded into the flight management computer. If I was having electrical issues, attempting to program 3 new waypoints (none of which are emergency airports) would be next to last on a pilot's to-do list. Certainly one of the two would get on the radio to report the situation first to the ground.

I think I don't know squat. I find it amusing that I'm the only apparent person on the planet without a pet theory.

Swift wrote:I think I don't know squat. I find it amusing that I'm the only apparent person on the planet without a pet theory.

Maybe you don't have a pet theory, but do you have one that's taken you hostage? Those are fun too.

Much media circus and speculation. There are new suppositions broadcast every day. I await with interest the potential discovery of the crash so that the facts might be known.

I see a lot of search planes flying overhead. Most of the aircrews are flying out of Perth.

Despite my geographical proximity to an area of interest, I deny involvement with the disappearance.

squ1d wrote:Despite my geographical proximity to an area of interest, I deny involvement with the disappearance.

Duly noted.

Thanks to this little mishap, I now realize that you live next to the Indian Ocean. Have I ever mentioned how fantastic I am at geography?

Does that mean you can find Kabul on a Map?


Missing plane lost, Malaysia says

I know that up till now it was not officially lost, but it does sound like something out of XOF news.

I presume that at this point the search for the plane has shifted to the Valle de los Caidos.