Budget Day

[The Supreme Canuck]

All I know is that the Tories intend to fuck over my region of the province (and, as I see it, the rest of the province, too), while the other parties do not. Why would I ever vote PC under those circumstances?

[The Supreme Canuck]

...aaand now the Tories have pulled something that is either voter suppression or gross incompetence. Personally I think it's the latter, but I can certainly understand why it looks like the former.

Mysterious letters that direct voters to the wrong polling station in Ottawa and London were an innocent mistake, the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party said Tuesday.

The Ontario Liberal party called on Elections Ontario Tuesday to investigate the letters, alleging “voter suppression” after a supporter with a Liberal lawn sign in London North Centre received a letter telling her to vote at the wrong polling station.

[...]

The letters set off alarm bells for the Liberals, who drew comparisons to the voter suppression trial that ended in Guelph on Monday.

Campaign worker Michael Sona is charged in connection with a robocall that sent opposition supporters to the wrong polling station on election day. Sona says he is innocent.

[...]

Stewart said the aim is trying to send the letters to supporters, not supporters of other parties. He said the Liberal supporter who received the letter in London North Centre “somehow ended up on the wrong list.”

The party sent out a release on Tuesday evening apologizing.

“Today, we were made aware that letters to voters in the campaign may have caused some confusion for a small number of residents in the riding of Ottawa West Nepean,” it said. “We apologize for any inconvenience and have contacted these households to clarify.”

Stewart said the Tories are not up to dirty tricks here.

“It’s more embarrassing than it is anything else.”

Source: Ottawa Citizen article

Context for non-Canadians: this looks fishy as hell because the federal Conservative Party did almost exactly the same thing as this... probably intentionally. It looked bad enough that there was an RCMP and Elections Canada investigation into voter suppression and, as a result, charges were laid. We'll see the verdict on that one soon.

Worse, the federal party has an extensive voter information system that allows them to target specific individuals based on stated voting intentions - they can communicate specifically to those who will vote against them. This system was likely used to facilitate the robocalls scandal. It is also probably available to the provincial party. (This, by the way, is why I refuse to tell parties my voting intentions - I don't want to end up in that database, both for my own privacy reasons and so I don't help parties I don't like get elected.)

Worse again is the fact that at least one of the two ridings involved here, Ottawa West-Nepean, is incredibly close in the polls. The slightest suppression or disruption either way could decide the outcome there. And, because the election itself is so close, just a few seats could decide the outcome. It is, in short, exactly the sort of riding that would be targeted for this sort of vote manipulation. So that looks bad.

That said, there is no evidence that there is actual tampering going on here, so I'm calling this one incompetence and campaign mismanagement. Of course, there should be an Elections Ontario investigation in any case, to ensure that things are on the up-and-up. For the moment, though, I'm willing to believe this is a screw-up.

Still... wow. Best case, this is incompetence that calls into question the integrity and fairness of the electoral system in this province, not to mention the ability of the PCs to do things. Point.

TSC's political shit-list (2014 Ontario Election), current standings:

Liberals: 5
NDP: 5
PC: 22

[FZR1KG]

All I know is that the Tories intend to fuck over my region of the province (and, as I see it, the rest of the province, too), while the other parties do not. Why would I ever vote PC under those circumstances?

You have to take one for the team.
You have to break a few eggs to make an omelette.
You know the drill.

[Parrothead]

Should they be investigated, yes. If found guilty to contravening laws, charge them. If it is only 60+ letters that were sent out, I'm not sure how much of a bearing they will have on the result, as it was caught beforehand.

Liberals have not been so blameless either. Uhm, you don't think they have fucked up the province with scandals, ill-advised programs (Green Energy Act a prime example), doubling the provincial debt to almost $300 b during the last 11 years? A number of manufacturing sector jobs left due to increased energy costs ( with a further 43% increase coming in the next couple of years). Those gas-plants that you said you don't care about, will cost taxpayers over $1b due to the decision was made by the Liberals, during the last election campaign. The worst part being the alleged deletion of emails and alleged wiping of gov't computer hard drives possibly destroying some evidence, allegedly by staffers and one non-staffer. This in the office of the previous Liberal leader.

While blasting Hudak's numbers, a deeper look into their budget, which is their platform, and triggered this election, has economists wondering how they will actually balance the budget, as they claim they will. Those third year 6% cuts to some ministries are worse than the cuts they have been fear-mongering about. It should be interesting to see what happens, if the Liberals win a minority and introduce the exact same budget within 20 days, as they are promising.

Allegedly one TTC bus driver, while driving his route, was telling passengers not to vote PC while on duty on Monday evening. It is under investigation and may contravene the Provincial Elections Act.

One tasteless piece of campaign literature put out by a Liberal candidate, had an image from one of the Batman movies (Dark Knight ?) where the Joker is walking away from a hospital which is exploding in the background. The PC leader's image was super imposed over the Joker's making it look like he is laughing. Oh yeah, the Liberal leader was busy apologizing for that ad yesterday.

The Liberal leader found time to sit down with all sorts of media, when it came to Sun news/Toronto Sun, she was a no-show. So the columnist ended up providing her own answers on behalf of the leader in her column.

As it sits on election day, it is felt that this will be the worst turnout for a provincial election. Last time out 48% of the eligible voters chose to cast a ballot. Early voting numbers are down 6% from the last election.

Some levity from this campapaign:

"Imaginine that! The unelected Mayor supporting the unelected Premier. " - Various people after Toronto Deputy Mayor (who is in power after the elected Mayor was stripped of most of his powers and is taking a leave of absence) came out in support of Kathleen Wynne (became Premier after winning the Party leadership being elected by Liberal party members in a convention, after her predeccesor decided to step down amid questions about the gas plants). Neither came into their current position in a general election.

"Does Axe make a post-election body wash? I need a long hot shower after all the dirt that has been thrown around, from all parties, during this campaign" - heard on talk radio yesterday.

[The Supreme Canuck]

Liberals have not been so blameless either. Uhm, you don't think they have fucked up the province with scandals, ill-advised programs (Green Energy Act a prime example), doubling the provincial debt to almost $300 b during the last 11 years? A number of manufacturing sector jobs left due to increased energy costs ( with a further 43% increase coming in the next couple of years). Those gas-plants that you said you don't care about, will cost taxpayers over $1b due to the decision was made by the Liberals, during the last election campaign. The worst part being the alleged deletion of emails and alleged wiping of gov't computer hard drives possibly destroying some evidence, allegedly by staffers and one non-staffer. This in the office of the previous Liberal leader.

- I have no issue with the Green Energy Act.
- The debt doubled because of stimulus spending during the recession; I'm in favour of Keynesian economics.
- The "higher" energy costs are relative - they are higher than they were because they were made to be artificially low for years.
- As to gas plants, the $1 billion figure is an overstatement. The Auditor General found the cost to be $675 million. The reason I don't care is because A) the government was responding to local concerns about the plants and B) local candidates from all parties would have cancelled the plants due to local opposition. Allow me to quote Mississauga PC candidate Geoff Janoscik:

Unlike the Dalton McGuinty Liberals, the only way to guarantee this power plant does not get built is to elect a Tim Hudak Ontario PC government. A Tim Hudak Government will cancel this plant.

Source: Statement by Geoff Janoscik, 24 September 2011 (PDF)

The Liberals are being blamed because they were the ones who actually did it - but all three of the major parties would have done it. So criticisms levelled at the Grits are disingenuous hypocrisy, as far as I'm concerned.

While blasting Hudak's numbers, a deeper look into their budget, which is their platform, and triggered this election, has economists wondering how they will actually balance the budget, as they claim they will. Those third year 6% cuts to some ministries are worse than the cuts they have been fear-mongering about. It should be interesting to see what happens, if the Liberals win a minority and introduce the exact same budget within 20 days, as they are promising.

All three parties have numbers that don't add up. Six of one, half a dozen of the other.

Allegedly one TTC bus driver, while driving his route, was telling passengers not to vote PC while on duty on Monday evening. It is under investigation and may contravene the Provincial Elections Act.

As it should be.

One tasteless piece of campaign literature put out by a Liberal candidate, had an image from one of the Batman movies (Dark Knight ?) where the Joker is walking away from a hospital which is exploding in the background. The PC leader's image was super imposed over the Joker's making it look like he is laughing. Oh yeah, the Liberal leader was busy apologizing for that ad yesterday.

Tasteless, yes. Illegal, no. And Ms. Wynne did say it was unacceptable.

It's a far cry from deceiving voters, which a local PC campaign has been doing. It's put up signs that look like they're from the NDP and which encourage people not to vote Liberal. The point being to split the Liberal vote, which benefits the PC. The Liberal ad may be tasteless (and I'm not happy about it), but the PC signs are actively misleading.

The Liberal leader found time to sit down with all sorts of media, when it came to Sun news/Toronto Sun, she was a no-show. So the columnist ended up providing her own answers on behalf of the leader in her column.

To be fair, I wouldn't sit down with them, either.

As it sits on election day, it is felt that this will be the worst turnout for a provincial election. Last time out 48% of the eligible voters chose to cast a ballot. Early voting numbers are down 6% from the last election.

Yes, that's a shame. The parties have no incentive to get the turnout up, either. They're happy to see people on the other side stay home.

Anyway, ThreeHundredEight.com has it's final projection up: likely Liberal minority, possible PC minority. Probably almost no change at all since dissolution, both in terms of popular support and seat count. Though there is a lot of variation in the polls, meaning that there could be big surprises. The final numbers:



Also, Parrot, I think it's fair to say that we don't see eye-to-eye politically. Diametric opposites, in fact. Just wanted to say that I hope you don't take my political ranting here personally - hope I haven't cheesed you off too much. We're good?

[The Supreme Canuck]

And they've called it: Liberal majority. Surprising, but I'm well-pleased.

Edit: Oh, it's probably also important to note that Kathleen Wynne, who was un-elected premier at dissolution, is now the first elected female (and openly-gay) premier that Ontario has seen.

[The Supreme Canuck]

So the Liberals won. Today the government is swearing in the new cabinet.

Only two Tories showed up for the ceremony. The NDP didn't show up at all. Real classy, guys. Way to be petty and childish.

Seriously, though - good on those two Tory MPPs (Twitter link). Class acts, especially since there must have been pressure on them from their party not to show up.

[Parrothead]

No problems TSC.

In the end, one of the seats did go back to a PC, but it had no affect on the outcome. Moody's has since downgraded the provincial debt outlook to negative from stable. Mafeel the province will get another debt rating downgrade, after they re-introduce the same budget. A 1% increase in the rate will add approx. $480m to the annual interest payment.

We'll see what happens.