Splitsville, USA?

[Tarragon]

Several years ago, I read an article about a Russian historian who predicted the balkanization of the United States. Now, a Russian-supported US President appears to be driving the country toward that end result. Do you think Trump's fight against santuary cities/states will lead to this?

I wonder, if Trump ceases payments to some of these states, would states like California that are net donors fight back by suspending payments to the federal government? Would Trump relent, or send in the FBI, US Marshals, or federalize the state's guards to force the state's governor and legislators out of office? Would those states, especially those with access to the Sea, declare themselves independent?

I've seen articles about Canadians inviting the west coast states to join them. Some of the blue-ish Midwest states might feel stuck, but if they joined with Canada to some extent, then the Great Lakes states would be able to get out to sea via the St. Lawrence if all the Lake bordering states join or honor transit treaties.

I wonder how the south and plains would react. With the net loss of federal income, they would receive less funds, which might make them angry at Trump. Or they might not blame him, because Cognitive Dissonance. The long shape of Illinois provides a natural blockade that could starve the northern Plains if people don't want to drive all around to bring food, but since they have oil to trade, they might hold on. However, flight of industry because of economic realignments from the low population plains might shrink them to insignificance.

What do you think the map may look like?

[Cyborg Girl]

As tempting as the idea might sound, I think splitting up the US would be awful for the world at large. We are an imperial power, with nasty tendencies of our own, but we've been keeping the lid on a lot of even nastier stuff. "No more USA" would not be as bad as some of the stuff Trump's people have in store, but it would still be bad.

(See: Russian and Chinese expansion, global warming, various looming environmental catastrophes... The world needs an at least somewhat democratic, and at least somewhat altruistic, power at the forefront right now. The EU is not in good shape to provide that.)

It would be a much, much better idea IMO to impeach Trump and move from there. Even with some other Republican coward in office. Much better to still have a United States, and have it at least trying to do right.

(And mind, the above is all strictly opinion. Though, worth noting that the prime mover behind CalExit is currently living in Moscow... ha ha.)

[geonuc]

The constitution has no provisions for secession. I suppose you can read into the Declaration of Independence's "free and independent states' a right to secede.

In answer to the general question, no, I don't think Trump will cause California or any other state to attempt secession. I think Gov Jerry Brown has threatened to withhold tax payments, though.

[Rommie]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure we addressed the question on whether states have the right to secede, and the Civil War determined the answer is no.

Also, frankly, while I've heard rumors that Bannon et al are saying they out to encourage California to secede, frankly the USA has always needed California more than California needed the USA, right down to the start where they were admitted as a state without being a territory and allowed to choose their borders. You don't just let the largest economy of the country waltz out.

[vendic]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure we addressed the question on whether states have the right to secede, and the Civil War determined the answer is no.

I'm pretty sure you're right.

[Tarragon]

The south keeps insisting it will rise again. Without a moral humanitarian issue like Slavery worthy of killing each other over. Maybe everyone will decided to part amicably. It's way over them there big mountains.

I wonder how the secession would have gone if South Carolina hadn't started it, but waited for the Union to do so.