Trade War Coming?

[Parrothead]

So Trump has announced a 25% tariff on steel and 10% on aluminium coming from the EU, Canada and Mexico. Uhm, cost of everything will go up in the US. Canada has already announced it will impose dollar for dollar ($16.6 b of duties) counter-measures, effective July 1st. Almost 50% of our steel production and 80% aluminium goes to the US. Among some of the items on Canada's counter-measures list include: some steel and aluminium, whisky, beer kegs, toilet paper and maple syrup. For some reason, Trump has cited national security interests, as a reason for imposing these tariffs.

There's a G7 meeting in Quebec next week and I'm assuming NAFTA negotiations will continue.

[SciFiFisher]

They are trying to pose it as a national security issue, in part, because that sounds so much better than "protectionism".

There is just enough truth in the national security aspect to almost make it seem reasonable. For example, there are some types of armor plating that can only be made with very high tech metallurgy processes. If enough of our steel manufacturing goes overseas or becomes imported we do become vulnerable if we want to build certain types of armored vehicles. Other industries that applies include things like micro processors and etc.

BUT... Most of the experts agree that the issue is not raw materials or even finished goods. It is the intellectual property theft that occurs when you decide to manufacture things in China especially. But, there is practically nothing being done about that.

I think this a play to appear like he is doing something about jobs and manufacturing and middle class wages. Unfortunately, Trump and his advisors are almost all old school capitalists and they can't seem to think beyond cronyism and corruption.

[Parrothead]

Needless to say, some on panel discussions were mentioning the added costs which will be incurred for things such as pipeline construction or jets. Not sure how this could affect the auto sector, during the manufacturing process a vehicle could cross the border a number of times.

EU has filed a complaint to the WTO. The issue as always is Trump, within days he may tweet that he has changed his mind. Up here we also know, he wants a sunset clause added to NAFTA calling for re-negotiation every five years with an option for walking away. Canada and Mexico are not in favour of that, preferring to tweak, when called for. He could be doing this to put pressure on negotiations. I've read some pieces, there could be some targeted counter-measures, an example EU and Canada may consider adding tariffs to products such as orange juice, which could hit Florida ahead of mid-term elections.

There is a one month gap between US tariffs and Canada's counter-measures being implemented. We'll see what happens through June.

[Sigma_Orionis]

.... The issue as always is Trump, within days he may tweet that he has changed his mind. .......

Typical con-man tactic. Continuous Crisis Mode.

It will really piss me off if works to get a workable arrangement with North Korea.

[SciFiFisher]

.... The issue as always is Trump, within days he may tweet that he has changed his mind. .......

Typical con-man tactic. Continuous Crisis Mode.

It will really piss me off if works to get a workable arrangement with North Korea.

Unfortunately, sometimes even a blind dog can find a bone.

I think NK is doing what they do best. Playing for recognition on the world stage, getting concessions without actually committing to much, and seeing just what they can get from the current group of clowns in the administration.

[Sigma_Orionis]

.... The issue as always is Trump, within days he may tweet that he has changed his mind. .......

Typical con-man tactic. Continuous Crisis Mode.

It will really piss me off if works to get a workable arrangement with North Korea.

Unfortunately, sometimes even a blind dog can find a bone.

I think NK is doing what they do best. Playing for recognition on the world stage, getting concessions without actually committing to much, and seeing just what they can get from the current group of clowns in the administration.

Well, considering that Trump has not only pissed off his Allies, but also China on trade, I suspect he won't have much support from the Chinese when Junior starts messing with him for real