Election 2020

[SciFiFisher]

I have 1 very simple question. what the heck is wrong with my fellow citizens?

Would you like a list?

[SciFiFisher]

A possibility I want y'all to consider for a minute: Biden squeaks through with exactly 270 electoral votes, Trump takes it to SCOTUS, and the Supremes side with Trump and override both the popular and electoral vote.

Brite and I have discussed exactly how that would look. As I am writing this Biden has 253 votes and Trump is at 214. In almost every scenario Biden winds up with 270 votes. What basis would Trump use to contest and how many states would he have to contest and convince the SC to invalidate enough votes for? FIRST he as to prove there was some sort of irregularity. An irregularity, in this case, would be the state violating its own laws about how to count the votes, when to count the votes, and when they will allow ballots to be received. For example, in NC they allow ballots to be received up to 3 days after the election. As long as they have a postmark before election day (or on election day I think) NC law says they count them.

They are already filing lawsuits or asking for recounts in MI, WI, PA, and god knows where else. But, if the states follow their own election laws I can't see how the SC is going to be able to justify invalidating ballots or throwing an election to the R team. And frankly, I think they know that if they did something that blatant the shooting would probably start. While a number of the alt-right are all for a shooting match I don't think the SC is.

[Rommie]

I'm still cautiously optimistic for Biden. Anyone with a basic understanding of data can take the current rates in these states and see it won't be a tie, and he will win PA with a healthy percentage once they finish counting. (Georgia is also fun to follow right now but whatever it is, it'll be close. I think the more interesting thing for us is how close they are right now to having two special elections...) Here is a Google Docs spreadsheet I've found useful for both PA and Georgia.

Also, I feel like this piece captures my mood perfectly about a lot of the hand wringing I've seen from my white friends versus the reactions I'm seeing right now from my POC ones-

Anecdote isn’t evidence, but I’ll note that for the past two years, the demographics in my inbox who most fervently believed in a 2020 blue landslide were White liberal men and occasionally White liberal women. Surely, they insisted, what had happened in 2016 was a blip. Hillary Clinton had been uniquely flawed, the country uniquely complacent, Donald Trump uniquely novel. The results didn’t really reflect America. Black women would save the party; Black women would save us all.

The Black women who wrote to me, meanwhile, were exhausted and often worried. To them, 2016 didn’t feel like a blip. It felt like the America they’d already been living in for decades was finally made visible to the rest of the country. Yes, it had always been racist. Yes, it had always been sexist. Yes, yes, yes.

If you, like Biden, have had the recurring privilege of sadly shaking your head and saying, “This isn’t who we are,” what you really meant was, “This isn’t who I’ve ever had to see us be.” What you really meant was, “This isn’t my America. . . . Crap, is it yours?”

Maybe the closeness of this election will make us revisit Hillary Clinton: It wasn’t so much that she was flawed as that we were. Older White male candidates don’t guarantee a tidal wave, either.

[lady_*nix]

@Rommie

Yeah, hard agree on all of that, and thanks. I needed the reminder.

Was reading this article this morning, similar energy: https://www.emptywheel.net/2020/11/03/w ... r-america/

If Biden wins, and if Trump leaves office peacefully, I hope we as a country don't try to put the veil back in place.

[Rommie]

Yes. And Georgia runoffs aside (because I think it's beyond optimistic to think both will be won), the next ~1 year is going to be politically brutal. You think we won't have a government shutdown again at minimum? Or McConnell won't try to, say, not confirm some Biden department heads? (At least in the latter case there's now precedent for secretaries to just start doing their thing before confirmation...)

To be fair, I also think that once the votes are in we should allow ourselves to take a breather and enjoy the things that we can do for the better. Like I for one look forward to rejoining the Paris accords, a woman VP for the first time ever, no more Muslim ban, and never having to think about Jared Kushner again.

[lady_*nix]

TBH I'm still very worried about what Trump will do in the lame duck period. This guy is, like, the toxic boyfriend who says "If I can't have her I'll kill her!" Except on the scale of an entire population instead of just one person. I would not put it past him to try and start a nuclear war.

[Rommie]

Ahead in PA and Georgia!!!

I'm watching the news just wondering at what point the networks will call the election, seeing how PA is going. (I'm sure no one will touch Georgia.)

[pumpkinpi]

So I've addressed this on facebook and twitter, but I trust y'all the most. When is it REALLY official? I mean, official enough to know how states will cast their electoral ballots. People getting excited over news organizations "calling" it with such narrow margins seems to me just wishful thinking. Don't the states have to make the final call? Why can't we just wait until then to celebrate? Besides, you know, impatience.....

[pumpkinpi]

So I've addressed this on facebook and twitter, but I trust y'all the most. When is it REALLY official? I mean, official enough to know how states will cast their electoral ballots. People getting excited over news organizations "calling" it with such narrow margins seems to me just wishful thinking. Don't the states have to make the final call? Why can't we just wait until then to celebrate? Besides, you know, impatience.....

Would it be when they stop counting votes?

[lady_*nix]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1158569576168402945

^^^ this.

[SciFiFisher]

So I've addressed this on facebook and twitter, but I trust y'all the most. When is it REALLY official? I mean, official enough to know how states will cast their electoral ballots. People getting excited over news organizations "calling" it with such narrow margins seems to me just wishful thinking. Don't the states have to make the final call? Why can't we just wait until then to celebrate? Besides, you know, impatience.....

Would it be when they stop counting votes?

Well, it's not really "OFFICIAL" until the electors meet and cast their votes. Technically, that means not until December.
Unofficially, we will know all the vote counts by the end of next week.

[lady_*nix]

Well, it's not really "OFFICIAL" until the electors meet and cast their votes. Technically, that means not until December.

That sounds like an awful lot of time for shenanigans TBH, especially considering who we're talking about. Applying his stochastic terrorism BS against electors themselves to try and sway them, seems about in line with Trump's typical behavior.

[pumpkinpi]

So I've addressed this on facebook and twitter, but I trust y'all the most. When is it REALLY official? I mean, official enough to know how states will cast their electoral ballots. People getting excited over news organizations "calling" it with such narrow margins seems to me just wishful thinking. Don't the states have to make the final call? Why can't we just wait until then to celebrate? Besides, you know, impatience.....

Would it be when they stop counting votes?

Well, it's not really "OFFICIAL" until the electors meet and cast their votes. Technically, that means not until December.
Unofficially, we will know all the vote counts by the end of next week.

Well yeah, that's true every year. But at some point the electors find out who to cast their votes for. Is it the state's election official who makes that call?

[lady_*nix]

Holy shit, Biden won. He was at least 273 electoral votes, possibly 284 if you're already counting AZ.

... Of course. Trump is now claiming that he won. And he's still a lame duck until January. So now comes the hard part.

[lady_*nix]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... with-grace

Fuckers are probably trying to avoid prosecution, and sadly I'm sure it's going to work.

[lady_*nix]

As usual Sarah Kendzior says it better than me.

https://twitter.com/sarahkendzior/statu ... 7586665474

The US faces a long and dark road as it deals with the systemic problems that allowed Trump to take power and the brutal measures he will take to stay there.

But Biden's win matters enormously. The door to US democracy is open. Everyone who helped achieve this should feel proud.

[SciFiFisher]

So I've addressed this on facebook and twitter, but I trust y'all the most. When is it REALLY official? I mean, official enough to know how states will cast their electoral ballots. People getting excited over news organizations "calling" it with such narrow margins seems to me just wishful thinking. Don't the states have to make the final call? Why can't we just wait until then to celebrate? Besides, you know, impatience.....

Would it be when they stop counting votes?

Well, it's not really "OFFICIAL" until the electors meet and cast their votes. Technically, that means not until December.
Unofficially, we will know all the vote counts by the end of next week.

Well yeah, that's true every year. But at some point the electors find out who to cast their votes for. Is it the state's election official who makes that call?

Yes, for the most part. Each state has a process and an official person who certifies the vote and declares the counts "official". They are supposed to present those results to the electors that have been chosen by each state no later than December 14th. The Electors vote on December 14th. The Electoral college vote results are delivered to the state officials by December 23rd. On January 6th Congress convenes to count the Electoral College votes and declare a winner. Technically, that is when it will be official that Joe Biden is the 46th President of the U.S. On January 20th 2021 Biden will be sworn in. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11641

[Rommie]

PARTY TIME!

[lady_*nix]

Welp, here go the centrist Dems full steam ahead trying to sweep this under the rug and pretend the Republicans going fascist never happened. Plus more internal bickering about how outreach to Black people and "transsexuals" is shrinking the Dem voter base, and they should move further to the right.

I am so fucking tired.

Edit: all these guys like Buttigieg being like "You should reach back across the aisle to people you know who voted for Trump! Shake hands and make nice again! Unite the country!"

No. They literally voted to kill me. To quote some really famous television, "Fix your hearts or die."

[SciFiFisher]

I am struggling a bit with the "they are not our enemies" and "we need to reach out to them and heal the country" tropes. Frankly, many of these people are criminals and they need to be held accountable. And I am not just talking about minor election campaign rules violations kind of criminal.

I sincerely hope that there is a real honest effort to hold people accountable. If there is not I don't see how we can reconcile our differences. As for the 71 million people supporting a fascist takeover of the United States I am not sure exactly what type of reconciliation I can have with them? A tense almost peaceful co-existence?

I told Brite this weekend maybe I should start flying the U.S. flag from the garage again and tell my Trump neighbors that I am proud of it again.

[pumpkinpi]

I am struggling a bit with the "they are not our enemies" and "we need to reach out to them and heal the country" tropes. Frankly, many of these people are criminals and they need to be held accountable. And I am not just talking about minor election campaign rules violations kind of criminal.

I sincerely hope that there is a real honest effort to hold people accountable. If there is not I don't see how we can reconcile our differences. As for the 71 million people supporting a fascist takeover of the United States I am not sure exactly what type of reconciliation I can have with them? A tense almost peaceful co-existence?

I told Brite this weekend maybe I should start flying the U.S. flag from the garage again and tell my Trump neighbors that I am proud of it again.

I agree. I saw a couple of my neighbors walking around the block with a flag, and now they have put it up in their front yard. My gay liberal neighbor had his flag mounted on his door on election day.

[lady_*nix]

TBH I wasn't proud of being a USian to begin with, but now... never again. Any loyalty I have left to this country, is only to its use as a vehicle to build something better.

What the hell. Rootless Cosmopolitanism runs in my blood.

But no. I'm also not going to forgive and forget. I want to humiliate the fascists, the hardcore followers, to the point that fascism never again is a viable platform in the US. And I want to see things like UBI, public healthcare, and a livable minimum wage in my lifetime. If this country isn't something I can be proud of, I at least want it to become something I can accept.

[Rommie]

I mean, at the end of the day ~50 people were convicted for Watergate, so I think it's pretty clear that it's important to have public accountability for when you do illegal things. People may forget that now because Nixon was pardoned, but there was a definite fallout from all that.

The trouble with a lot of "reach across the aisle" talk is, of course, some things are not really negotiable. As lady_*nix said, I have no real urge to find common ground with someone who thinks throwing kids in cages or forced sterilizations or whatever Nazi-type thing is ok- there is a difference in a fundamental right to existence versus a policy thing like health care.

That said, I can't say I've seen much of the "forgive and forget" angle yet? Beyond maybe thinking ahead to what can be done to get through the Senate if there is no majority, but honestly in those cases it will be a question of peeling of a Romney or Murkowski rather than everyone agreeing to something, so on that pragmatic level I'll allow it.

Honestly though that talk tires me because I have seen plenty of attempts in the last four years to get to know the other side from the Democrats to the Republicans, but no such attempts in the other direction. To use my dad as an example, we haven't talked politics at all this last week, except for how yesterday morning all us kids and spouses got a long email from him about Ayn Rand's philosophy and how he wants to discuss it. (I woke up Sunday to F saying "I'm reading about Ayn Rand!" and me being all "oh lord what now.") But as a first volley, he only goes as far as the "reality exists" premise- which I mean preach to the choir, I'm a scientist and obviously think reality exists, but never bought that objectivism flows from that particular observation. And none of us are going to respond- he obviously wants to engage us, and "prove" we are all wrong for voting for Biden. And I mean, it's my dad so I feel bad no one will respond to something he spent a long time writing, but what's the point of that? He clearly doesn't care about why we all voted the way we do, and I suspect just thinks we don't understand him well enough.

IMO, much better time spent talking to my brother, who voted 3rd party in 2016 and voted Biden this time. Sis, I, and his wife are all very proud of him. (Dad interestingly never asked, and just assumes bro votes for Trump because he's the most conservative of us three- as I said, not much outreach happening there.) And in 4 years time, we will have two more votes as my spouse and my brother's become citizens- damned immigrants!

Speaking of Nixon, I remember hearing when he resigned half of Republicans still supported him. Food for thought on how much reaching out is actually effective right there.

[lady_*nix]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... nald-trump

Preparing for an attempt at a military coup maybe? It ain't over til it's over.

I don't see Trump getting far with a military coup. But IIRC, the SecDef is the only person other than the President required to authorize a nuclear strike.

*sighs heavily, hopes Trump isn't about to do what I think he is*

Edit: see also: https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1324939327160393729

Edit 2: also https://twitter.com/sarahkendzior/statu ... 6634496001

That was back in January 2019.

OTOH he's discussing a 2024 run so... I assume he's not stupid enough to nuke the planet first? I hope?

[lady_*nix]

https://twitter.com/sarahkendzior/statu ... 0483523584

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... p-election

Whoops guess Trump isn't going to leave office that easily, ha ha

Honestly I'm going to believe the Dems won't fuck this up when I see it.