FWIS3

As recently as a couple of years ago, I believed that NK would probably blow themselves up before they developed a legitimate nuclear threat. Now, I'm getting kind of freaked. They not only have nuclear weapons capability, but also have successfully tested ballistic missiles. Plus they launched a missile from a submarine.

Time to start digging the bomb shelter, again. Anyone else concerned?

They have been bugging me for a while now but I'm hoping China has some leverage on them.
Pretty sure they aren't going to mess about with the Chinese if they get cranky and China has too much interests in the West now to have it lost by some spoiled little brat.
That's my hope anyway. If that pans out wrong, we have a boat.

Yeah, China is getting some serious pressure to push behind the scenes now I'm sure.

The thing about NK is they do one dumb thing outside their country and the people in charge are beyond toast. I suspect they know it, or at least really really hope they do.

China has been getting serious pressure to rein in their rabid dog for a while now, and yet the situation seems to be getting worse, much worse.

I wonder if this recent nuclear belligerence by North Korea is China's doing?

geonuc wrote:China has been getting serious pressure to rein in their rabid dog for a while now, and yet the situation seems to be getting worse, much worse.

I wonder if this recent nuclear belligerence by North Korea is China's doing?

No idea, but it's quite obvious we aren't the only country that has gone insane. I mean, between Trump, Putin, the Filipino leader and NK, our world is like a very, very, scary dark comedy.

It's basically just all the stuff from the recession finally coming out after festering for so long.

Re: NK, another important detail in their current path is how young Kim Jong Un is, and how he is under serious pressure to prove himself and not be deposed. Ever hear the theory that the reason medieval Europe was so violent was because it was basically a bunch of drunk 20 year olds? Sorta like that. NK is the sort of place where if you told me they'd switch to a new dictator in two days or 20 years I would believe either.

Maybe the Chinese are deliberately egging them on, so when they do something really stupid, like lob a bomb at Japan, the Chinese will step in and "save the day', annexing NK (putting in a puppet government) and killing off the boy-king. Then they will be the hero that saved the rest of the world from this threat, proving their power as a superpower.

Could be, but that seems exceedingly dumb. You can't predict how such a thing can turn out.

If there is anything we do know, it's that the Chinese aren't like Western cultures. They look at the long term picture while the West generally looks half way to the next election cycle.
So to understand what the Chinese are up to requires thinking ahead decades as opposed to months.

When you are strong, act weak.
When you are weak, act strong.
In times of peace, prepare for war...

Rommie wrote:Could be, but that seems exceedingly dumb. You can't predict how such a thing can turn out.

That was a mix of wild speculation and kidding, so I wouldn't take that idea too seriously. Its more like the plot of a James Bond movie.

I'm wondering if China is orchestrating this to provoke the US or South Korea into doing something rash. By orchestrating, I mean the boy-king is not calling the shots in Pyongyang. Beijing is.

vendic wrote:If there is anything we do know, it's that the Chinese aren't like Western cultures. They look at the long term picture while the West generally looks half way to the next election cycle.
So to understand what the Chinese are up to requires thinking ahead decades as opposed to months.

When you are strong, act weak.
When you are weak, act strong.
In times of peace, prepare for war...

That doesn't mean that they know what they're dong. Their long view is of not much use if they make long range mistakes. They'll be paying for their one child policy dearly for the rest of this century.

Swift wrote:

Rommie wrote:Could be, but that seems exceedingly dumb. You can't predict how such a thing can turn out.

That was a mix of wild speculation and kidding, so I wouldn't take that idea too seriously. Its more like the plot of a James Bond movie.

There's actually an amazing book I read recently about North Korea I would recommend to anyone, called A Kim Jong Il Production, all about NK in the context of the story where they kidnapped a famous South Korean director and actress and forced them to make films for North Korea. One of the things about it that they kept pointing out is how a ton of NK international espionage and the like seems so surreal and movie-like because Kim Jong Il was such a huge movie buff so he thought that spy movies were real. Apparently he literally thought James Bond was basically a documentary.

Sooo yeah, in that context, I'm not reassured.

Sigma_Orionis wrote:

vendic wrote:If there is anything we do know, it's that the Chinese aren't like Western cultures. They look at the long term picture while the West generally looks half way to the next election cycle.
So to understand what the Chinese are up to requires thinking ahead decades as opposed to months.

When you are strong, act weak.
When you are weak, act strong.
In times of peace, prepare for war...

That doesn't mean that they know what they're dong. Their long view is of not much use if they make long range mistakes. They'll be paying for their one child policy dearly for the rest of this century.

My BiL the military analyst contractor also said one big thing the Chinese government can't really control but thinks they can is the feelings of the Chinese populace themselves- tons of feelings that this should be their century to dominate, and they don't have to take anyone's shit anymore, etc. He can make the argument that we are currently far closer to another WW1 than most want to admit, because a century ago war was similarly unthinkable between two so economically connected partners (UK and Germany), but there were also a ton of alliances no one could back out of (like the US and Japan).

Just saying that similar to the one child policy, just because you think you know what'll happen long term doesn't mean reality will go that way.

Another thought - where is the CIA now that we really need a regime change?

Rommie wrote:...He can make the argument that we are currently far closer to another WW1 than most want to admit, because a century ago war was similarly unthinkable between two so economically connected partners (UK and Germany), but there were also a ton of alliances no one could back out of (like the US and Japan)...

Your BIL would have to do a lot to convince me that's a valid comparison. The world is so much different, including economically, as compared to a hundred years ago.

geonuc wrote:Another thought - where is the CIA now that we really need a regime change?

Still trying to live down the fact that they couldn't topple a minor Latino Dictator who has since been thumbing his nose at the U.S. ever since.

SciFiFisher wrote:

geonuc wrote:Another thought - where is the CIA now that we really need a regime change?

Still trying to live down the fact that they couldn't topple a minor Latino Dictator who has since been thumbing his nose at the U.S. ever since.

Hey, according Nicky & Co they did, they gave him Cancer

I wrote that they think long term, doesn't mean it works out though. It's easier to make a short term plan successful than a long term one, but, they think that way so it's unlikely that any guesses for the short term are going to be right other than it's a small part of a big plan.

The thing about a rabid dog is it won't heel when you call it. It is also good for distracting people. China is probably not entirely comfortable having NK as an ally and a neighbor but they are even more uncomfortable at the thought of having a unified Korea who is fast friends with the U.S. as their neighbor.

Another thing that people in the West forget is that for Asians it's often about Face and Honor. China is sending a clear message to other Asian countries and cultures. NK is just part of that message. The message quite simply is "See. These Imperial Running Dogs are not nearly as tough as they think they are. If they can't control one little country like North Korea and stop it from making nukes how much help are they really going to be if you have to ask them to stop China from taking whatever it wants?"

Of course, a real Asian would claim the message is more subtle than that.

China's long game is to convince the rest of the world and especially the Asian sphere of influence that they need to look East for trading partners, military alliances, and frenemies. They want everyone including the U.S. State Department to see the U.S. and it's allies as being on the decline and ineffective. In 50 years or less they are projecting that they will be the dominant economic powerhouse worldwide and they want the military and political prestige to match it.

A lot of people are betting that the economic projections are right. Almost everyone wants a piece of the pie in China. India may have something to say about that if they can get their Sheznei together. The European Union was on track to giving the global economy a run for the money. The Chinese are adept at adapting to the blowing wind. Right now they see the wind blowing in their favor and they are raising every sail they can.

Really? Let's see: North Korea has been in the orbit of the Chinese since the 1950s and the latter pretend to convince the rest of Asia that the US can't control the former? If China tried to convince its own people I'd believe it, if they tried to convince the North Koreans, I'd believe it too. But, the rest of Asia? The US State Department? THAT alone is enough to convince me that Asians aren't particularly smart. Because from here it looks like the ones that can't handle a small rogue nation is China not the US

Sure I can believe the Chinese expect to surpass the US in the middle term. Hell, during the "commodities boom" of the early 2000s, it was widely believed that it would happen. SPECIALLY during the worst years of the Great Recession. Remember how everyone was worried because China owns about US$ 1 trillion worth of US External Debt? They still do, nobody seems to care these days though.

However it has hit several snags.

- There's their problem that they have an European-Level aging population problem about to hit them. And that will take VERY long to get rid of.

- Then there's the fact that due to the combination of their own stupid economic policies and the sanctions on Russia, the EU economy is literally frozen. While your both sides of your Political Aisle have had a gran ole time bitching about how much of your finished goods are either bought or made in China. The proportion of that in the EU is a lot higher. So if the EU buys less the Chinese economy slows down. Just ask Australia, their economy is slowing down because China is buying lots less. Globalization is triple edged sword

- And of course there's China's attempt to get in the Backyard of the US (that would be Latin America). A very significant portion of the chunk of change they threw in Latin America was sent here in Bananaland. Right now it looks like they're not going to get their money's worth. Now, I'm sure that in the long term they won't lose money. But, from the looks of it. Most of South America is going to flip back to the US. Argentina and Brazil (the biggest players in the region) already have. Chile always took a "hands off" attitude. Ecuador is walking a tight rope as not to end up like us. The only countries other than us that are still in their camp are Bolivia and Nicaragua. THAT certainly should throw a monkey wrench in their plans for securing our Raw Materials for themselves. Because the other alternative is Africa, and I don't think they'll be any more successful than the West in lifting them out of their mess enough to be a reliable supplier.

- This is not to say that the Chinese will crash and burn. If only because they just bought US$ 1 trillion worth of Boeing passenger aircraft. But taking the place of the US? Maybe in a couple of generations if they don't screw up in the way.

Don't forget their *worst* enemy is the U.S. State Department. If you knew them like a lot of military people know them then you would know that the last thing in this world you want is for the U.S. State Department to be your friend.


And yes. The sarcasm emoji would be right beside the word "worst" about 100 times if it existed.

SciFiFisher wrote:Don't forget their *worst* enemy is the U.S. State Department. If you knew them like a lot of military people know them then you would know that the last thing in this world you want is for the U.S. State Department to be your friend.


And yes. The sarcasm emoji would be right beside the word "worst" about 100 times if it existed.

Somehow I get the feeling that you don't have much sympathy for the US State Department. Bu then again few people seem to

Ask Haitian textile workers why they hate the US state dept.