FWIS3

I don't want it to look like I'm taking over other threads, so I'll keep it in here, if any one wants to talk about it.

I think Trump may want to start a war in order to rally people behind him and to vilify as traitors anyone who stands against him. This might be against China or North Korea as a proxy for China. It looks like China may thinks this as well. An official is calling for a deployment to the South China Sea and a missile defense on the Korean Peninsula. There's unconfirmed reports of ICBMs being moved into position to attack the US, with possible photos of these on social media.

Quoted in the South China Morning Post, the official from the Commission’s Defence Mobilisation Department wrote: “A war ‘within the president’s term’ or ‘war breaking out tonight’ are not just slogans, they are becoming a practical reality.”

Oh my. That... could be very bad.

How dare the President of the United States talk on the phone with the Prime minister of Taiwan...without China's permission or blessing. It's an outrage!

vendic wrote:How dare the President of the United States talk on the phone with the Prime minister of Taiwan...without China's permission or blessing. It's an outrage!

You don't understand. If we go to war with China we will lose access to our cheap IPhone and microwaves!! Oh! The Horror!!

SciFiFisher wrote:You don't understand. If we go to war with China we will lose access to our cheap IPhone and microwaves!! Oh! The Horror!!

Don't worry. Trump has this one sorted. He's asking for American Engineers to design the peoples phone. he's calling it the Folksphonen lol

On a serious note. Ex-Soviet Leader Mikhail Gorbachev was quoted as saying the world is preparing for war. The stage is certainly being set for a large scale conflict. Trump has been intimating that he wants to take the oil in Iraq. The nationalist drumbeat has started beating louder. A number of folks whose job it is to anticipate these things have started war gaming various scenarios. It's anybody's guess but mine is that Lil Kim will act as the proxy. Putin's role in this is to undermine and weaken the EU and NATO. China will be "forced" to aid NK. The wild card in all this is that Trump could very well decide that nukes are the way to prevail. China supposedly has a much smaller nuclear arsenal than the U.S. or Russia but would certainly attempt to retaliate if we used nukes.

There are any number of scenarios that could play out.

The War that will end all wars.

vendic wrote:The War that will end all wars.

Just like the last one. And the one before that. And the one...

vendic wrote:

SciFiFisher wrote:You don't understand. If we go to war with China we will lose access to our cheap IPhone and microwaves!! Oh! The Horror!!

Don't worry. Trump has this one sorted. He's asking for American Engineers to design the peoples phone. he's calling it the Folksphonen lol

It only comes in white.

Interestingly, the missiles mentioned in the article are the DF-41 design that has a range of 12,000 km, which means it can hit anywhere in the world. But on the other hand, there is a minimum distance that it can't hit. Placing these missiles close to the Russian border means they can't strike a lot of Russia with them, although there may not be much to target in that region. Both Chinese and Russian government officials agree on that fact according to ZeroHedge who got it from Russia Today, so take with a grain of salt.

BTW, does anyone know if the truck in photo (If that's the leaked photo), is merely a transporter to take it to a silo, or if it's a Transporter-Erector-Launcher? Wikipedia says the DF-41 is used with both.

vendic wrote:How dare the President of the United States talk on the phone with the Prime minister of Taiwan...without China's permission or blessing. It's an outrage!

So, my BiL works at the Pentagon as a contractor for the navy, specializes in the South China Sea intel. He pointed out (rightly, IMO) that you shouldn't be worried as much about Trump talking to Taiwan so much as who the hell the person was who had his ear so much that he decided to do that in the first few weeks.

With all the buzz around Steve Bannon and him getting appointed to the national security council, I suspect we may have an answer.

Tarragon wrote:Interestingly, the missiles mentioned in the article are the DF-41 design that has a range of 12,000 km, which means it can hit anywhere in the world. But on the other hand, there is a minimum distance that it can't hit. Placing these missiles close to the Russian border means they can't strike a lot of Russia with them, although there may not be much to target in that region. Both Chinese and Russian government officials agree on that fact according to ZeroHedge who got it from Russia Today, so take with a grain of salt.

BTW, does anyone know if the truck in photo (If that's the leaked photo), is merely a transporter to take it to a silo, or if it's a Transporter-Erector-Launcher? Wikipedia says the DF-41 is used with both.

It's probably a transporter only. But, I wouldn't bet my life on that assessment. It's been more than a couple of years since I played the sight cards game in the military.

SciFiFisher wrote:

Tarragon wrote:BTW, does anyone know if the truck in photo (If that's the leaked photo), is merely a transporter to take it to a silo, or if it's a Transporter-Erector-Launcher? Wikipedia says the DF-41 is used with both.

It's probably a transporter only. But, I wouldn't bet my life on that assessment. It's been more than a couple of years since I played the sight cards game in the military.

It's a dark photo, but it looks like a transporter-launcher to me. The DF-41 is a mobile missile.

They need to work on their camoflage skills. Those whitewall tires aren't getting it done.

Rommie wrote:So, my BiL works at the Pentagon as a contractor for the navy, specializes in the South China Sea intel. He pointed out (rightly, IMO) that you shouldn't be worried as much about Trump talking to Taiwan so much as who the hell the person was who had his ear so much that he decided to do that in the first few weeks.

With all the buzz around Steve Bannon and him getting appointed to the national security council, I suspect we may have an answer.

I'm pretty sure we do and yes, the timing sucked more than the event.

geonuc wrote:

SciFiFisher wrote:

Tarragon wrote:BTW, does anyone know if the truck in photo (If that's the leaked photo), is merely a transporter to take it to a silo, or if it's a Transporter-Erector-Launcher? Wikipedia says the DF-41 is used with both.

It's probably a transporter only. But, I wouldn't bet my life on that assessment. It's been more than a couple of years since I played the sight cards game in the military.

It's a dark photo, but it looks like a transporter-launcher to me. The DF-41 is a mobile missile.

They need to work on their camoflage skills. Those whitewall tires aren't getting it done.

Do you know if they're just moving to a permanent base or area, or is this a field deployment like a deterrence patrol in anticipation of actual or drill launch?

Tarragon wrote:Do you know if they're just moving to a permanent base or area, or is this a field deployment like a deterrence patrol in anticipation of actual or drill launch?

I have no idea where the missile is being moved to but the whole point of mobile-missile technology is not to have a permanent base, thus making them less susceptible to first-strike attack.

Kind of like a "land submarine"?

Thumper wrote:Kind of like a "land submarine"?

Yes, except not as fun!

Tarragon wrote:I think Trump may want to start a war in order to rally people behind him and to vilify as traitors anyone who stands against him...

Didn't Bush do that already?

"You're either with us or against us".

vendic wrote:

Tarragon wrote:I think Trump may want to start a war in order to rally people behind him and to vilify as traitors anyone who stands against him...

Didn't Bush do that already?

"You're either with us or against us".

It's always good to stick with a strategy that works.

Seems the republican way.

Thumper wrote:Kind of like a "land submarine"?

But screen doors make more sense.

Let's look at the possible wars.

US vs. China
China is one possible war. Steve Bannon wrote last year that he expected the US to be at war with China in the South China sea. Perhaps this is why Trump ispushing Australia, because he'll either need them to get on board and wants to start dominating them now. Or maybe he wants Australia on the outside so that he can extract concessions from them for not joining, or at least prevent them access to the spoils of war. Or it could be a negotiation ploy to keep them on the hook for the F-35.

US vs. Iran
I know I said this might not happen because of Russia. I've reconsidered in light of new statements from Trump and other developments. Russia may be OK with a war if it means Iran buys more weapons from them. Another war would take mindshare away from Putin's renewed action in Ukraine. There's also something shady going on with the recent purchase of Rosneft, Russian petroleum company, but I don't know if or how that fits into this.

US Civil War
There's a video from a couple years ago going around with Steve Bannon proclaiming that Christians need to become militant (make of it what you will). The riot at Berkeley growing out of a protest against Milo (an internet troll connected to Breitbart and Steve Bannon) will be used by Trump to move against protesters of any kind. Meanwhile, Trump wants to take right wing terror groups off the Countering Violent Extremism program and change the name to Countering Radical Islam, or something like it.

I expect Trump will come for the guns of liberal protesters, their supporters and sympathizers, and then move on to the right wing. I think the NRA will allow it at first because they've long since stopped being a one-issue political group and constantly rail against liberal ideas. When they go after the RW gun owners, it will look like police work. They'll get milita-types for looking at internet instructions for bomb-making that happen to be or been used by Islamic terrorists. They may entrap some group as a while by planting these guys back into their group. The militias will be paralyzed with fear wondering if their people are informants or going to entrap them.

I expect an assassination attempt against Trump. If he's smart, he may try a false-flag attempt that fails and makes his opponents look desperate and inept, while making him appear sanctioned by God. He'll use this to go after the protesters as enemies of the state, as mentioned above. It'll justify more security and more staying at home or in his other isolated locations so that real assassins can't get to him. I could see some Republicans being involved in the false-flag op and deciding that it won't be a fake attempt after all but meant to kill him. However, Bannon might anticipate this and use a double agent to ensnare these GOP conspirators. The best bet then would be a direct military strike by a foreign power, a seceded state Guard, or a military coup. A lone wolf won't be able to get close enough.

Then Again...

I would frankly be shocked, in the current political climate, if there isn't a serious assassination attempt against Trump. The only thing that makes me think I might be wrong is that there never was one against Obama.

Rommie wrote:I would frankly be shocked, in the current political climate, if there isn't a serious assassination attempt against Trump. The only thing that makes me think I might be wrong is that there never was one against Obama.

I don't know. I think you might be right. Not that I approve of assassinations, but he is pissing off everyone he can as fast as he can, so it certainly isn't outside the realm of possibility.

Dear NSA - I don't own a gun. I'm not a violent person. I haven't been in a physical altercation since the age of six. I don't use violence to sort out problems and I don't promote violence either. This is merely analysis.