Iran Gets The A Bomb

[SciFiFisher]

Well, maybe. Now that we are backing out of the Iran nuclear deterrent deal Iran is already talking about firing up their nuclear program again. Of course, there is no telling how this is going to turn out. A lot of people were not completely happy with the Iran deal. And that included some liberals.

Worse case scenario is we actually ally with Israel and others to use military force against Iran to prevent them from spinning centrifuges.

What is really interesting is that there are a lot of businesses and workers who are going to be impacted by this. It seems that part of the deal with Iran was that the U.S. and other nations would be able to start doing business there. Boeing had a $20 billion deal to deliver airplanes to the Iranian airlines. A number of other countries also were doing business there. Now the U.S. is saying they are going to impose sanctions and try to embargo Iran.

Of course, no one is sure how that is going to work because Tillerson closed the sanctions department of the State Department. And the head of the Sanctions division resigned last week.

Meanwhile the rest of the countries who signed the Iran deal are scrambling and hoping they can keep the deal intact without the U.S. but....

I don't know whether to get some popcorn and watch this train wreck or start putting my duffel together in anticipation of being recalled to active duty.

[geonuc]

One step closer to Tel Aviv getting nuked. Followed by Tehran.

[Thumper]

But at least the current administration has a well thought out plan B.

[SciFiFisher]

But at least the current administration has a well thought out plan B.

[Rommie]

What I find insane in comparison is watching North Korea unfold beside Iran. Like, NK is arguably a far worse regime in many ways to its citizens, but looks like we're now going to be friends with them! Honestly, I think what's most likely to happen is the USA just gets its power even more diminished internationally, as right now it looks like all the other nations are intent to let Iran stay in a deal with them and assist however they can. Obviously, a lot is still going to happen on both fronts over the next weeks/months.

Sigh, I dunno. Whenever I read about this stuff I always imagine I'm back in 11th grade American history class, and watching my history teacher explain parts of history. The parts I often remember in detail were the ones he actually lived through and explained to us candidly, like JFK or Vietnam, where when a horrified class of 17 year olds said "but why would they do that?!" he would give a weary sigh and explain the rationale. I imagine my theoretical future children will have the same reactions to a lot of this stuff ~20 years down the line.

[SciFiFisher]

Unfortunately, the situation is further complicated by the fact that Iran makes no effort to hide the fact that they support Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations. They solidly support Assad in Syria and are lobbing missiles into the Golan Heights. They were a large part of the reason that Hezbollah was able to do so well against Israel in the last major scuffle in Lebanon.

A lot of people felt that the Iran deal should have included or been part of a serious effort to curtail Iran in those areas. But, there was probably no way Obama and his administration were going to get Iran to play ball by asking for all of that AND no nukes. Not to mention the Republican controlled congress who refused to work with Obama to negotiate anything meaningful because they were hell bent on making sure that he failed at everything.

Brite has asked me to seriously consider becoming an expatriate and moving to Germany. It seems Germany has free college tuition and her Doctorate in History would be a lot cheaper.

[SciFiFisher]

What I find insane in comparison is watching North Korea unfold beside Iran. Like, NK is arguably a far worse regime in many ways to its citizens, but looks like we're now going to be friends with them! Honestly, I think what's most likely to happen is the USA just gets its power even more diminished internationally, as right now it looks like all the other nations are intent to let Iran stay in a deal with them and assist however they can. Obviously, a lot is still going to happen on both fronts over the next weeks/months.

Sigh, I dunno. Whenever I read about this stuff I always imagine I'm back in 11th grade American history class, and watching my history teacher explain parts of history. The parts I often remember in detail were the ones he actually lived through and explained to us candidly, like JFK or Vietnam, where when a horrified class of 17 year olds said "but why would they do that?!" he would give a weary sigh and explain the rationale. I imagine my theoretical future children will have the same reactions to a lot of this stuff ~20 years down the line.

Yep.

It's one thing to study a period in history and quite something else to live it. I think that's why the historical dramatizations that the History Channel has been creating are so popular. It shows "real people" actually living and going through the era being dramatized. And you get a feel for the emotions, tensions, and the way people thought about things.

[Rommie]

What I find insane in comparison is watching North Korea unfold beside Iran. Like, NK is arguably a far worse regime in many ways to its citizens, but looks like we're now going to be friends with them! Honestly, I think what's most likely to happen is the USA just gets its power even more diminished internationally, as right now it looks like all the other nations are intent to let Iran stay in a deal with them and assist however they can. Obviously, a lot is still going to happen on both fronts over the next weeks/months.

Sigh, I dunno. Whenever I read about this stuff I always imagine I'm back in 11th grade American history class, and watching my history teacher explain parts of history. The parts I often remember in detail were the ones he actually lived through and explained to us candidly, like JFK or Vietnam, where when a horrified class of 17 year olds said "but why would they do that?!" he would give a weary sigh and explain the rationale. I imagine my theoretical future children will have the same reactions to a lot of this stuff ~20 years down the line.

Yep.

It's one thing to study a period in history and quite something else to live it. I think that's why the historical dramatizations that the History Channel has been creating are so popular. It shows "real people" actually living and going through the era being dramatized. And you get a feel for the emotions, tensions, and the way people thought about things.

I guess the older I get, the more I realize this! I guess that's impossible to really appreciate when you're a teenager.

Btw, regardless of where brite chooses to do it, one shouldn't be paying for a history PhD (provided one is willing to TA), as you get a stipend for it. Might be different if you do it part time though.

[SciFiFisher]

chooses to do it, one shouldn't be paying for a history PhD (provided one is willing to TA), as you get a stipend for it. Might be different if you do it part time though.

That's good information! I will pass that on to her. I may have her pick your brain. Thank you!

[Rommie]

chooses to do it, one shouldn't be paying for a history PhD (provided one is willing to TA), as you get a stipend for it. Might be different if you do it part time though.

That's good information! I will pass that on to her. I may have her pick your brain. Thank you!

Sure thing! But I do believe our old friend Norm is actually doing a PhD in Germany now, in American studies (of all things in all places). So if you're serious about the Germany thing I'd ask him!

[geonuc]

What I find insane in comparison is watching North Korea unfold beside Iran. Like, NK is arguably a far worse regime in many ways to its citizens, but looks like we're now going to be friends with them! ...

I don't think it's all that arguable.

WRT to any deal we make with North Korea, this administration's sabotage of the Iran agreement only serves to inform the world that any deal made with the US is worthless. And not just while the Mango Mussolini is in power. Future presidents - even rational ones - may find our credibility lacking in the eyes of other nations now that we've demonstrated a willingness to elect such a horror as Trump.

[SciFiFisher]

An excellent analysis of the quagmire we find ourselves in over Iran. This article is free. I find Foreign Affairs a good source of reasoned analysis. Unfortunately, they do require a subscription for regular reading. But, as the adage goes.. you get what you pay for. And they do provide a very good rational source of analysis. They will let you read one article a month for free. The one I am linking to is "paywall free reading". They occasionally do this as part of their marketing efforts.

Leaving the JCPOA marks the end of a road, in one sense. In another, it is just the latest twist, albeit a momentous one, in a decades-long confrontation with Iran that has offered little satisfaction to U.S. policymakers. Success will require not just a plan for reinstating sanctions in hopes of one day bringing Iran back to the negotiating table but a strategy that tackles with urgency the broad and growing set of challenges in the Middle East in which Iran plays a role.

[Sigma_Orionis]

What I find insane in comparison is watching North Korea unfold beside Iran. Like, NK is arguably a far worse regime in many ways to its citizens, but looks like we're now going to be friends with them! ...

I don't think it's all that arguable.

WRT to any deal we make with North Korea, this administration's sabotage of the Iran agreement only serves to inform the world that any deal made with the US is worthless. And not just while the Mango Mussolini is in power. Future presidents - even rational ones - may find our credibility lacking in the eyes of other nations now that we've demonstrated a willingness to elect such a horror as Trump.

I do agree, but I'm pretty sure that Trump's supporters will say that shows he's tough, so NK better agree to anything he has to offer, or else.

[Sigma_Orionis]

An excellent analysis of the quagmire we find ourselves in over Iran. This article is free. I find Foreign Affairs a good source of reasoned analysis. Unfortunately, they do require a subscription for regular reading. But, as the adage goes.. you get what you pay for. And they do provide a very good rational source of analysis. They will let you read one article a month for free. The one I am linking to is "paywall free reading". They occasionally do this as part of their marketing efforts.

Leaving the JCPOA marks the end of a road, in one sense. In another, it is just the latest twist, albeit a momentous one, in a decades-long confrontation with Iran that has offered little satisfaction to U.S. policymakers. Success will require not just a plan for reinstating sanctions in hopes of one day bringing Iran back to the negotiating table but a strategy that tackles with urgency the broad and growing set of challenges in the Middle East in which Iran plays a role.

Very good read. As much sympathy as I have for Obama, I must say that the biggest problem in his foreign policy was that he was always trying to play the long game, which by itself is not bad. However, he did not take into account that the consequences of the way the Iraqui occupation was handled, tainted US foreign policy. Which led to the usual "US Imperialism" outcry from the left and fostered the isolationism and nativism that the right is now displaying.

[geonuc]

An excellent analysis of the quagmire we find ourselves in over Iran. This article is free. I find Foreign Affairs a good source of reasoned analysis. Unfortunately, they do require a subscription for regular reading. But, as the adage goes.. you get what you pay for. And they do provide a very good rational source of analysis. They will let you read one article a month for free. The one I am linking to is "paywall free reading". They occasionally do this as part of their marketing efforts.

Leaving the JCPOA marks the end of a road, in one sense. In another, it is just the latest twist, albeit a momentous one, in a decades-long confrontation with Iran that has offered little satisfaction to U.S. policymakers. Success will require not just a plan for reinstating sanctions in hopes of one day bringing Iran back to the negotiating table but a strategy that tackles with urgency the broad and growing set of challenges in the Middle East in which Iran plays a role.

I may subscribe. I recently (last year) subscribed to the US Naval Institute to get informed commentary on naval policy and issues. Well worth it. Sounds like Foreign Affairs is much the same, except broader in scope.

[grapes]

Sigh, I dunno. Whenever I read about this stuff I always imagine I'm back in 11th grade American history class, and watching my history teacher explain parts of history. The parts I often remember in detail were the ones he actually lived through and explained to us candidly, like JFK or Vietnam, where when a horrified class of 17 year olds said "but why would they do that?!" he would give a weary sigh and explain the rationale. I imagine my theoretical future children will have the same reactions to a lot of this stuff ~20 years down the line.

Now, stuff like FDR and WWII is like, hey that was *only* five years before I was born. Back then, it was ancient history ... My "old" middle school teachers were Korea vets.