FWIS3

Triggered by this post. well, the post is actually at the bottom of the page. The premise has been made that Trump engaging in a trade war is not that crazy. It is actually something that we have done in the past. The theory is that China needs to be stopped from being the 900-pound gorilla.

More to follow.

Is Trump on the right track with trade wars to stymy China and others from taking advantage of the U.S. ?

One of the major problems with doing business with China is they refuse to respect copyright laws and they massively steal intellectual property. If you have them manufacture a product for you it is not uncommon for them to copy it and sell a knock off of that exact product through one of their own Chinese subsidiaries. Usually a really cheap knock off that is not as good... but so cheap that most people are willing to sacrifice quality for the ability to save a few Yuan.

And if you have them manufacture high tech items they demand that you provide all of the blueprints and insist that you hand over all the intellectual rights to it in China before they will let you sell in China.

One of the rationales for Trump engaging in trade wars, especially with China. is that his administration claims this will bring back jobs to the U.S. Sadly, that ship has sailed. The manufacturing facilities that would provide those jobs no longer exist in the U.S. For example, 80% of the shoes sold in the U.S. are made in China. Even if everyone stopped buying shoes made in China tomorrow and demanded that all the shoes they buy be made in the U.S. the factories to make those shoes don't exist. It would take 5-10 years to replace the factories. And since American workers refuse to work for $1.50 per hour (or less) the shoes would have to cost a lot more. The average U.S. consumer has the retail loyalty of an alley cat. They won't pay a lot more for shoes just so their neighbor can have a nice job with benefits. If we refuse to let China sell us shoes they will just buy their shoes from Vietnam, Thailand, or somewhere else where they can pay people shit wages.

The other factor about all those factories is that they produced a shit ton of pollution. Anyone remember acid rain? It was literally eroding our buildings in the 70's. I seriously believe that was one of the reasons for the big push to out source so much of our manufacturing. We got cheaper products and someone else got the pollution. And we got to feel good about it because we were raising the standard of living for them. China didn't have a middle class in the 1970's. They do now. Of course, ours is seriously shrinking... but, we have clean air to breath for a few more years.

The problem with a trade war with China or the EU is that it won't bring any jobs to the U.S, it will make things more expensive, it is already causing some employers to lay people off, and it won't stop the theft of intellectual property.

This is a good explanation of the impact of a trade war. https://www.marketplace.org/2018/04/04/ ... ings-trade

Which is why the US was pushing the much unloved TPP

The company I work for just lost a big order because of Trump's trade war with China. The sale would have been to a joint venture of a Dutch company and a Chinese company, at a plant in China. But the addition of the tariff priced us out of the deal. I don't think we'll have layoffs or anything like that (we're pretty busy anyway), but that was about $1 to $2 million in sales we just lost.

Protectionism simply doesn't work. Reality doesn't go away outside of your safe space.

It sounds good to some people though.

squ1d wrote:Protectionism simply doesn't work. Reality doesn't go away outside of your safe space.

It sounds good to some people though.

And still I await your solution. Just let China do whatever they want because they're getting better over time?

I mean, I get it. Japan used to suck. Their stuff was the worst crap you get ahold of, and over time, they began making the best stuff. Maybe that's the direction China will go.

Maybe we shouldn't be fighting with them.

You seem to think we should just accept that we don't have manufacturing anymore and sink into the night.

Meanwhile, I'll counter swift's anecdotal evidence with the awesomeness that is Bosch - a German company that is going nuts with building factories here and paying people decent wages.

Granted - and I mean this is in all seriousness - they seem to be doing the right thing in spite of the government rather than because of it. For the life of me, I wish there was a way to encourage more of that.

My natural state is to think the government should have less involvement not more.

Then, I got to a house that's been gutted after a hurricane and listen to an insurance adjuster nickel and dime every single repair.

And that's a visit into my chaotic mind. Just tryin' to put things together and see what's best. For some more non-sequiturs, as soon as Trump passed his tax bill, my mom's paycheck went up and so did the checks of all the pensioneers she was overseeing at the time.

South Korea LOVED what Trump did with North Korea. i reckon their opinion matters.

There are companies building new places to manufacture stuff all over the U.S. And so what if it takes five to ten years to get it together? Wouldn't it be worth it?

I mean, seriously, do we just roll over and die because most of us are white and this country was built in a time of colonialism? Do we just accept being service oriented? Do we want open borders? Is it time to just round up all the white people and say we don't really have a culture and we're responsible for all the ills of the world?

I guess I'm trying to look at a broader picture and I'm probably failing.

I don't accept the premise of your "China is screwing us over". And I'm simply living in the real world. The lens through which you all seem to see this issue has been framed by the U.S. media, which thankfully I am free of. My brief time in NC last year watching Fox News was enough to last a lifetime.

The real issue is costs, as you pointed out. And the fact is, the developing world will be cheaper, until their middle class expands to similar proportions as that of the western world.

But the west can and does dominate in other areas of industry. It's a matter of playing to strengths and not sticking the Ye Olde Times because that's The Way Things Were(tm).

Or, just have tariffs and replay history for the Nth time.

And also, having read the above, I can't believe you won't admit you've gone Right(tm), and perhaps even are a Trump supporter.

squ1d wrote:The lens through which you all seem to see this issue has been framed by the U.S. media, which thankfully I am free of. My brief time in NC last year watching Fox News was enough to last a lifetime.

Surely you're aware that Fox News is hardly representative of the US news media?

geonuc wrote:

squ1d wrote:The lens through which you all seem to see this issue has been framed by the U.S. media, which thankfully I am free of. My brief time in NC last year watching Fox News was enough to last a lifetime.

Surely you're aware that Fox News is hardly representative of the US news media?

Of course, but I'm hearing a few of the drum beating Fox talking points of a year ago from SFC.

It was by far the most entertaining channel though

There's this sense of China being a threat to US dominance that seems to run through these conversations that isn't really present in countries where people are just trying to get on with their lives.

I for one welcome my new Chinese overlords.

squ1d wrote:And also, having read the above, I can't believe you won't admit you've gone Right(tm), and perhaps even are a Trump supporter.

That's not very helpful, she certainly has little sympathy for things too far left of center (BTW so do I) but calling her a Trump Supporter after asking her to tone it down a bit, is not going to get this discussion too far.

I didn't call SFC a bad person. I said I think she's drifted right. I also think she is quick to defend Trump and slow to criticize, which gives the impression to me of tacit support.

Just saying it as I see it.

I didn't tell anyone to go fuck themselves. That's where I suggested we all pump the brakes.

SciFi Chick wrote:

squ1d wrote:Protectionism simply doesn't work. Reality doesn't go away outside of your safe space.

It sounds good to some people though.

And still I await your solution. Just let China do whatever they want because they're getting better over time?

I mean, I get it. Japan used to suck. Their stuff was the worst crap you get ahold of, and over time, they began making the best stuff. Maybe that's the direction China will go.

Maybe we shouldn't be fighting with them.

You seem to think we should just accept that we don't have manufacturing anymore and sink into the night.

Meanwhile, I'll counter swift's anecdotal evidence with the awesomeness that is Bosch - a German company that is going nuts with building factories here and paying people decent wages.

Granted - and I mean this is in all seriousness - they seem to be doing the right thing in spite of the government rather than because of it. For the life of me, I wish there was a way to encourage more of that.

My natural state is to think the government should have less involvement not more.

Then, I got to a house that's been gutted after a hurricane and listen to an insurance adjuster nickel and dime every single repair.

And that's a visit into my chaotic mind. Just tryin' to put things together and see what's best. For some more non-sequiturs, as soon as Trump passed his tax bill, my mom's paycheck went up and so did the checks of all the pensioneers she was overseeing at the time.

South Korea LOVED what Trump did with North Korea. i reckon their opinion matters.

There are companies building new places to manufacture stuff all over the U.S. And so what if it takes five to ten years to get it together? Wouldn't it be worth it?

I mean, seriously, do we just roll over and die because most of us are white and this country was built in a time of colonialism? Do we just accept being service oriented? Do we want open borders? Is it time to just round up all the white people and say we don't really have a culture and we're responsible for all the ills of the world?

I guess I'm trying to look at a broader picture and I'm probably failing.

I do agree that China is screwing you. Particularly regarding IP rights. But the shifting of manufacturing facilities to China was all happily done by your own private industry. Not your government. Hell, it became widespread under Bush Jr. Who, IIRC, was pushing tax cuts at the time. I don't see how Trump's current policies are going to bring manufacturing back to the US. But, if they do, Manufacturing will be highly automated. So forget about good paying manufacturing jobs coming back. Again, the best way to handle China under the current circumstances was the TPP (and No, I'm am not a fan of it. HOWEVER it was specially made to create a market block big enough to counter China. AND, it had a lot of provisions to protect Intellectual Property rights).

I also distrust China because, despite all their assurances, their moves on the South China Sea show that they have ulterior motives. And SURPRISE!: a lot of the members of the TPP were going to be countries in the area.


I suspect that Bosch's US manufacturing facilities are used to make very high tech stuff, and require highly skilled/highly qualified personnel. So, it's not surprising that they take care of their people, regardless of what government says or does.

I am of the opinion that Government should do that the Private Sector can't or won't do because to do it well requires forfeiting making a profit (and no it's not criticism, it's simply a fact), I also am of the opinion that Market Economies are the least bad ones. I am also of the opinion that they require regulation because they are fragile and left to its own devices, economic actors WILL distort it . The hard part is how much regulation and the fact that they can't be set in stone. That requires a lot of work. But its better than the alternative.

As for South Korea, they sure loved Trump in June. But, these days: Not so much. Specially after today's events. I think that he's too erratic to get anything concrete done. Also, his penchant for expecting a personal relationship to have precedence over the interests of a Country is at best... stupid. As Charles De Gaulle said: "A man has friends. A country: interests". And that's before I even talk about the fact that he's a bully and bullies are usually taken down by bigger bullies. Not a good idea in International relations.

squ1d wrote:I didn't call SFC a bad person. I said I think she's drifted right. I also think she is quick to defend Trump and slow to criticize, which gives the impression to me of tacit support.

Just saying it as I see it.

I didn't tell anyone to go fuck themselves. That's where I suggested we all pump the brakes.

Hey, as far as a I know, she doesn't appreciate being called a Trump supporter. Even if her view about him is less dim than mine (and as far as I am concerned, the faster the US gets rid of him, the better it will be for everyone, including the US)

squ1d wrote:I don't accept the premise of your "China is screwing us over". And I'm simply living in the real world. The lens through which you all seem to see this issue has been framed by the U.S. media, which thankfully I am free of. My brief time in NC last year watching Fox News was enough to last a lifetime.

The real issue is costs, as you pointed out. And the fact is, the developing world will be cheaper, until their middle class expands to similar proportions as that of the western world.

But the west can and does dominate in other areas of industry. It's a matter of playing to strengths and not sticking the Ye Olde Times because that's The Way Things Were(tm).

Or, just have tariffs and replay history for the Nth time.

Oddly, I learned most of what I know about the China situation from working at Disney and then marrying an Australian who has had his industry gutted by manufacturing being moved to China from Australia. I have a good Australian friend who is shutting down his manufacturing company because everyone wants the cheaper, shittier products from China. So, no, I didn't get this from U.S. news outlets.

squ1d wrote:And also, having read the above, I can't believe you won't admit you've gone Right(tm), and perhaps even are a Trump supporter.

No. I'm not a Trump supporter, but every single person here hates him so much that it borders on ridiculous, so I'm pointing out a different point of view. Believe me, I've run into some Trump supporters on Facebook. It's a bit like wandering onto the forum godlike productions.

You see it as me drifting right. I see it as me standing still and the left drifting further left.

I never responded to your other post, and I apologize, but I will address one thing here. To me, being center is not being confused. It's that I agree with the left on some topics and I agree with the right on other topics. If you have another word to describe that stance, let me know.

I am still reflecting on the post you asked me questions in, but so much is going on in my personal life that it might take me awhile to verbalize a coherent answer.

Sigma_Orionis wrote:

SciFi Chick wrote:

squ1d wrote:Protectionism simply doesn't work. Reality doesn't go away outside of your safe space.

It sounds good to some people though.

And still I await your solution. Just let China do whatever they want because they're getting better over time?

I mean, I get it. Japan used to suck. Their stuff was the worst crap you get ahold of, and over time, they began making the best stuff. Maybe that's the direction China will go.

Maybe we shouldn't be fighting with them.

You seem to think we should just accept that we don't have manufacturing anymore and sink into the night.

Meanwhile, I'll counter swift's anecdotal evidence with the awesomeness that is Bosch - a German company that is going nuts with building factories here and paying people decent wages.

Granted - and I mean this is in all seriousness - they seem to be doing the right thing in spite of the government rather than because of it. For the life of me, I wish there was a way to encourage more of that.

My natural state is to think the government should have less involvement not more.

Then, I got to a house that's been gutted after a hurricane and listen to an insurance adjuster nickel and dime every single repair.

And that's a visit into my chaotic mind. Just tryin' to put things together and see what's best. For some more non-sequiturs, as soon as Trump passed his tax bill, my mom's paycheck went up and so did the checks of all the pensioneers she was overseeing at the time.

South Korea LOVED what Trump did with North Korea. i reckon their opinion matters.

There are companies building new places to manufacture stuff all over the U.S. And so what if it takes five to ten years to get it together? Wouldn't it be worth it?

I mean, seriously, do we just roll over and die because most of us are white and this country was built in a time of colonialism? Do we just accept being service oriented? Do we want open borders? Is it time to just round up all the white people and say we don't really have a culture and we're responsible for all the ills of the world?

I guess I'm trying to look at a broader picture and I'm probably failing.

I do agree that China is screwing you. Particularly regarding IP rights. But the shifting of manufacturing facilities to China was all happily done by your own private industry. Not your government. Hell, it became widespread under Bush Jr. Who, IIRC, was pushing tax cuts at the time. I don't see how Trump's current policies are going to bring manufacturing back to the US. But, if they do, Manufacturing will be highly automated. So forget about good paying manufacturing jobs coming back. Again, the best way to handle China under the current circumstances was the TPP (and No, I'm am not a fan of it. HOWEVER it was specially made to create a market block big enough to counter China. AND, it had a lot of provisions to protect Intellectual Property rights).

I also distrust China because, despite all their assurances, their moves on the South China Sea show that they have ulterior motives. And SURPRISE!: a lot of the members of the TPP were going to be countries in the area.


I suspect that Bosch's US manufacturing facilities are used to make very high tech stuff, and require highly skilled/highly qualified personnel. So, it's not surprising that they take care of their people, regardless of what government says or does.

I am of the opinion that Government should do that the Private Sector can't or won't do because to do it well requires forfeiting making a profit (and no it's not criticism, it's simply a fact), I also am of the opinion that Market Economies are the least bad ones. I am also of the opinion that they require regulation because they are fragile and left to its own devices, economic actors WILL distort it . The hard part is how much regulation and the fact that they can't be set in stone. That requires a lot of work. But its better than the alternative.

As for South Korea, they sure loved Trump in June. But, these days: Not so much. Specially after today's events. I think that he's too erratic to get anything concrete done. Also, his penchant for expecting a personal relationship to have precedence over the interests of a Country is at best... stupid. As Charles De Gaulle said: "A man has friends. A country: interests". And that's before I even talk about the fact that he's a bully and bullies are usually taken down by bigger bullies. Not a good idea in International relations.

Wow. You are so eloquent. Maybe you should start a YouTube channel and get yourself some patrons. I'm NOT kidding. Finding thoughtful people with differing opinions is damn hard. Everyone seems to quote talking points.

I try not to, but I get accused of it anyway, so maybe some talking points just make logical sense to me. I really appreciate how you respond to what I'm saying instead of just saying I watch FOX news or whatever.

Maybe I should take a good old fashioned course in Economics.

I do believe Bosch is an outlier. They have someone at the helm that understands you're actually going to have a more successful company if you treat your employees well then you will if you don't. Capitalism done correctly. But like Communism, without regulation and a lack of morality, it won't do well.

My main thing about China is that I'm mystified over why everyone is so afraid of Russia but they don't want to talk about China.

Also, your points about Trump's instability are well taken. Even if this trade war is a good idea, I don't know that he will stick with it, and that's very concerning.

Ugh... just read his comments about South Korea needing our approval. How embarrassing. He'll walk those comments back later, but I do wish he had some modicum of impulse control!!!

SciFi Chick wrote:

squ1d wrote:Protectionism simply doesn't work. Reality doesn't go away outside of your safe space.

It sounds good to some people though.

And still I await your solution. Just let China do whatever they want because they're getting better over time?

I guess I'm trying to look at a broader picture and I'm probably failing.

We had a solution. At least it was a really good start. It was called the Transpacific Partnership

And Trump and Co. trashed it. And now they are trying to address all these issues one trade war at a time. The recent agreements reached with Mexico and Canada were pretty much exactly what was in the TPP. Unfortunately, those separate agreements won't do anything about China.

The companies that are actually expanding or building factories in the U.S. are to be applauded. But, companies like Bosch seem to be the exception rather than the rule. And note that they are a German company not a U.S. company. Companies that are traditionally U.S. companies such as the Ford company are actually laying off employees and looking at moving more jobs overseas. And they are blaming the current trade policies for making those decisions.

SciFi Chick wrote:Also, your points about Trump's instability are well taken. Even if this trade war is a good idea, I don't know that he will stick with it, and that's very concerning.

Ugh... just read his comments about South Korea needing our approval. How embarrassing. He'll walk those comments back later, but I do wish he had some modicum of impulse control!!!

He has been highly successful with NOT having impulse control or being loyal, trustworthy, and reliable. It is highly unlikely that he will change now.

SciFi Chick wrote:Wow. You are so eloquent. Maybe you should start a YouTube channel and get yourself some patrons. I'm NOT kidding. Finding thoughtful people with differing opinions is damn hard. Everyone seems to quote talking points.

Thanks, had to rewrite it a few times till it made sense

As for YouTube, No thanks it's a lot of work, requires better internet access than that I have here in Bananaland, and it also requires dealing with those idiots that quote talking points. Besides, there are better people than me doing it. I know you don't like Jim Wright's page. Well, I like what he has to say, but I don't like his fans. I dislike how people gush over him. And I will stop reading it if he starts believing them. So far, he hasn't.

SciFi Chick wrote:I try not to, but I get accused of it anyway, so maybe some talking points just make logical sense to me. I really appreciate how you respond to what I'm saying instead of just saying I watch FOX news or whatever.

I do that because you respond to it

SciFi Chick wrote:Maybe I should take a good old fashioned course in Economics.

Paul Krugman's column in the New York Times is pretty good. He leans a bit too much to the left for my taste. However, he knows what he's talking about. He's also won the that Prize in Economics they give out with the Nobel Prizes.

SciFi Chick wrote:I do believe Bosch is an outlier. They have someone at the helm that understands you're actually going to have a more successful company if you treat your employees well then you will if you don't. Capitalism done correctly. But like Communism, without regulation and a lack of morality, it won't do well.

I think they do that because it's good business. And I'm fine with that. I have a weird relationship with the word "Morality". I prefer to deal with someone who does the right thing because they get something out of it, than with people who think that by doing what they're doing they can pat themselves on the back and say "Gee, what a moral person I am". IOW, I don't like Pharisees. Apparently, these days, they appear more in politics than in religion. Go figure. As for Communism: it simply doesn't work. Full stop. It has failed miserably everywhere it has been tried. And they turn authoritarian when it's clear it doesn't work. Of course, there is a lot of difference between leaning left and being a communist. Something neither Trump supporters nor Libertarians seem to accept.

SciFi Chick wrote:My main thing about China is that I'm mystified over why everyone is so afraid of Russia but they don't want to talk about China.

Probably because they didn't tamper with your elections. Apparently China was very pleased when Trump trashed out the TPP. So, if you ask me, I think that current "trade war" must be an acceptable side effect to them (although in the speech I'm quoting, they didn't think he'd follow through with it)

SciFi Chick wrote:Also, your points about Trump's instability are well taken. Even if this trade war is a good idea, I don't know that he will stick with it, and that's very concerning.

Ugh... just read his comments about South Korea needing our approval. How embarrassing. He'll walk those comments back later, but I do wish he had some modicum of impulse control!!!

My issues with him are not only that he's erratic. It's also that he's a bully, that he lies in a manner that makes Lyndon Johnson's "Credibility Gap" or Nixon's venality look like innocent white lies. That he's completely out of his depth and has neither the willingness nor the capacity to learn. That he can only have boot-lickers as subordinates. That he's a backstabber. That he's so self-centered, that foreign countries already know that the only way to deal with him is to shower him with flattery. In short, I think that he's by far the most incompetent person to ever hold the office of President of the US. Hell, he makes your Millard Fillmore look like a world class statesman.

SciFiFisher wrote:We had a solution. At least it was a really good start. It was called the Transpacific Partnership

COPYCAT!

Sigma_Orionis wrote:

SciFiFisher wrote:We had a solution. At least it was a really good start. It was called the Transpacific Partnership

COPYCAT!

A sincere form of flattery.

SciFiFisher wrote:

Sigma_Orionis wrote:

SciFiFisher wrote:We had a solution. At least it was a really good start. It was called the Transpacific Partnership

COPYCAT!

A sincere form of flattery.

Damn, you blunted any snappy response I could think of

Sigma_Orionis wrote:

SciFiFisher wrote:

Sigma_Orionis wrote:

SciFiFisher wrote:We had a solution. At least it was a really good start. It was called the Transpacific Partnership

COPYCAT!

A sincere form of flattery.

Damn, you blunted any snappy response I could think of

My work here is done.