FWIS3

"President Trump won’t agree to accept 2020 election results as Biden leads in polls — ‘I have to see’"

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/19/preside ... polls.html

I mean, duh? He ran on a ticket of acting like a fascist dictator, he is doing his best to act like a fascist dictator as President, and now that it looks like he might lose an election, he's talking about ignoring the results... like a fascist dictator. He already stated very bluntly that he would not accept a loss against Hillary Clinton, before he was even President. What the hell took people so long to figure out that this guy is a megalomaniac? Like seriously, he might as well have been expounding about Lebensraum. It was so bleeding obvious. Words just fail me.

According to Pelosi, it's not going to be up to him. She says he will be "fumigated out" if he refuses to leave.

SciFiFisher wrote:According to Pelosi, it's not going to be up to him. She says he will be "fumigated out" if he refuses to leave.

he's free to accept or not. he can think whatever he wants. what he isn't free to do is declare the results null and void.

no, it isn't up to him. it's up to the constitution.

Yeah, even if he's a petulant child who refuses to move out, it's not like the chain of command would keep going to him once the new guy is inaugurated.

The only way coups can really happen is if the military felt more allegiance to Trump than the Constitution, and it's pretty obvious that the DoD is tired of his shit. (Like, I'm sure a minority of troops would go with it, but I really don't see the top brass doing so.) Mind, I'm not saying that could never happen someday, just I'm not sure this is the guy it's going to happen with.

But then my husband keeps telling me "it's cute that so many people act like Trump won't be re-elected" and I don't disagree, so yeah.

Rommie wrote:But then my husband keeps telling me "it's cute that so many people act like Trump won't be re-elected" and I don't disagree, so yeah.

Well his very election was an upset. So, it's not unreasonable to think that way. I am more hopeful than certain that he will be gleefully shown the door in January 2021.

Trump on Ghislaine Maxwell: "I just wish her well, frankly."

https://twitter.com/NikkiMcR/status/1285689782501355521

At first TBH I figured he gets a thrill out of seeing just how much he can get away with, and is starting to let that get the better of him. But this is actually a manipulative trick. Stating something that has to either be either stupid, guilty, or false, hey can later come back and say "Oh that was a lie, look brilliant I was for telling that convincing lie to deceive my enemies!" And his followers will believe him. It's part of how he keeps them so completely brainfucked.

heavy sigh

I think one of the things that everyone is frightened of is that in 2016 they were shocked to discover that the polls totally failed to predict Trump's win. Until 2016 the polls were reasonably reliable in predicting who the president would be. Now, even with polls that show Biden with a 10-20 point lead people are not totally trusting the polls. It has dawned on them that a lot of people are bald faced liars when it comes to polls. I mean who is going to publically acknowledge they like the idea of voting for a guy like Trump? Yet, we definitely know that around 46% of the people who voted for president in 2016 did exactly that. And that 63% of the white males voted for him. And 52% of the white women. These percentages are of the total who voted. Only about 25% of the eligible voters supported Trump in 2016. But, he doesn't need much more than that. Because in 2016 only 55% of all eligible voters showed up. He really only needs to keep convincing about 30% of the eligible voters that the alternative to him being in office is "those other people" getting into power and taking away all of their rights.

If Trump can scare enough of the white middle class voters into believing that "those other people" are coming to take away everything they have worked so hard for they won't care if he plans to be a dictator for life. They will vote for him and lie through their teeth about how they think he is a horrible man and they really really don't support locking kids in cages but... THE STOCK MARKET!!!

So, vote! Vote often! Vote as many times as you can! No... don't commit election fraud. The Republicans do that just fine. But, convince as many people as you can to vote. Because their damn vote does count.

Trump is right about one thing, polls are bullshit these days.
And don't kid yourself, it's totally feasible Trump could ignore the result of the election (if he had military backing as Rommie said). Trump has done whatever he's wanted within and without the law and constitution for the last 4 years and nobody has stopped him.

I suspect that the biggest problem in polling wrt the presidential election in the us is the fact that we're saddled with the electoral college.

I've just learned that the woman I know who voted for trump because she thought 'that we just needed a change' has turned into an active supporter. lawn sign and all.

My understanding is the polling was right on a national level- Trump did lose the popular vote by 3 million after all- but of course the polling doesn't reflect the electoral college. So a 10% lead is really more like a 5% lead once that's factored in. Messed up, but here we are.

That said, I'm not sure a 10% lead is sustainable for several more months.

Re: husband, his reason for saying that is in 2004 he thought it was impossible that Americans would re-elect GWB, and they did, so he maintains that Americans will always never do what he expects and if they do he'll just be pleasantly surprised.

To say that the situation is "fluid" it's an understatement. A lot can change from now until November. I agree with Rommie and Mr. Mono. In your last election, EVERYONE was paying attention to National Polls, not from the individual states. That's because for decades. Electoral College results tracked the popular vote. However, this was not the case in 2016. These days, a lot more attention is placed on the polls in the so-called "Battleground States". That being said. A lot of things can change from now until November. As for Trump refusing to vacate the White House in the case he lost, I don't think he has anywhere near the support of the US Armed Forces needed to do that right now. Even in a country like mine, it took close to 15 years for Chavistas to pull that one off.

Sigma_Orionis wrote:Secret Trump Voters Didn’t Decide 2016 And Probably Won’t Swing 2020

They did a poll to see if people think their neighbors are secretly supporting Trump and lying on polls.