SciFiFisher wrote:IOW the only way to change the equation in someplace like Iraq is to stay for about 50 years and make sure that every single male over the age of 5 when you invade is dead in the first 5 years. Then you make sure that ALL the children go to schools ran by and vetted by the invading government. After about 20 years you let them start trying some local elections and allow them to elect a few representatives to a parliament. After about 40 years you actually start letting the parliament make some real decisions. at year 50 you hold a national election and allow them to start governing themselves. Parallel to that you implement a national police and military force that works closely with your military and they work together for about 50 years. You send their best and brightest to your military schools and police training. by the time 50 years have gone by the military and police forces are all ran from the top to the bottom by natives who have been thoroughly indoctrinated in your way of doing business.
Unfortunately, no one really believes that it is what it really takes. And if they did they are too shocked that you have to be that ruthless and think that far ahead to make it work. But, we are not talking about regime change. We are talking about changing a culture. Which means you have to literally rewrite it's traditions and history if you want to really change radically and "quickly" instead of taking 400 years or so.
Not what I was thinking.
Every situation is going to be different so you have to weigh what you have now vs what you are going to get.
This is pretty simplistic but I put cultures on a scale, like -10 to 10
Most hang around the 0 is mark, positive cultures value freedoms for all and go out of their way to be impartial.
Negative cultures are the opposite. They hate what is different and want to either kill or push out anyone different.
To see how much "your" particular culture will affect another you place both on the scale.
The further they are, they harder it is going to be to influence.
A change from neg to pos or visa versa is going to be difficult even is the absolute difference is small.
Though going from pos to neg is easier.
If we work with that, then to change a culture from an extremist type such as ISIS you don't even bother trying to go from -9 to +2, you go for -9 to -6. Or if you are really keen and have the resources, you can go from -9 to -3.
The thing is from what I've observed, people don't like change, be it for the good or the bad. What they do however is accept small incremental changes pretty easily because they just aren't worth the effort. They will however oppose large changes actively.
The shift from minus to plus is one they have to do themselves.
Changing a mentality from hate to acceptance isn't going to be achieved by an external force with any great success.
They have to do that and that may take generations of no conflict and persecution.
I we were to describe Iraq before the 90's and now, it was say a -2 or -3 and ISIS is pushing to towards a -7 or -8.
IOW, backwards. That's the backlash from the COW trying to get it into the positive without understanding, that isn't possible to do just by invading and getting out.