Budget Day

[Parrothead]

Apparently, he had a scheduling conflict. May have been purposeful, let the two left leaning parties argue amongst self. Last time around, Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty missed the same debate.

[The Supreme Canuck]

Sure, and I'd have dinged McGuinty for it, too. Or Wynne, for that matter.

As for Hudak, the conflict was because he wanted to show up at a "town hall meeting" in a factory crammed with Tory supporters lobbing softball questions. Not a legitimate conflict, IMO. Just a dodge.

Also, while we're at it, I'm not terribly happy with the format of the debate itself. A question would be asked by a mayor/native leader, Wynne would get 90 seconds to answer, then Horwath would get 90 seconds to answer. No rebuttals or responses. That's not a good format; there should be interaction between the leaders, and there should be a strong moderator to press points with them.

Debates are good. I want more of them. I want one every week of the campaign. At least.

[brite]

Are they as entertaining as our Republican debates??

[The Supreme Canuck]

Almost certainly not - no Rick Perry.

[Sigma_Orionis]

You find Rick Perry entertaining because he is not running for Political Office in Canada

[brite]

You find Rick Perry entertaining because he is not running for Political Office in Canada

Ooops

[The Supreme Canuck]

Okay, first of all, all three parties get a point. Because all three parties are making claims about the economy that aren't supported by their platforms or good economic numbers. The Liberals and NDP have nothing explaining how they're going to balance the budget, as they've promised; the Tories do have numbers... but they're crap. Point, point, point.

The Tories also get a second point for their crappy numbers, because of how bloody egregious they're being about it. They're promising 1 million jobs! Wow! However...

- That's 1 million jobs over eight years.
- Subtracting the number of jobs that the Tory plan assumes would already be created even if it wasn't implemented, the number is cut in half.
- And, worst of all, it turns out that they don't actually mean jobs when they say "jobs" - they mean "work years." (If you get a job, then work two years, that's two work years.) Which works out to the Tory plan counting every job it assumes it will create eight times. So divide that remaining 500,000 by eight to get the actual number of jobs that the Tories are claiming they will create.

They are literally claiming that they will create 62,500 jobs over the course of eight years... and they're selling it to us as creating 1 million jobs.

Bull. Shit. Point, Tories.

Gets worse, I'm afraid. As it turns out, the Tories are also committed to entirely abandoning Keynesian economics. Well, I say entirely. That's an exaggeration. Only very much mostly. Their law wouldn't have allowed Keynesian stimulus during the recent recession, at all, even using funds provided by the federal government. So, no, they haven't abandoned it entirely... they've just abandoned Keynesian economics for all practical purposes:

The Tories are planning to make more of a fuss about this between now and election day, so they aren’t willing to talk about it in any detail now. But they tried to pass a law in 2013 that’s likely a model for what they have in mind. The Living Within Our Means Act, as they called it, would have required the government to balance the budget every year except in extraordinary circumstances. There’s a list of what counts: A war, a natural disaster pummelling the province or a drop in provincial revenues of five per cent or more. That’s it.

The last condition would let the government do something to respond to an economic crash. But only a crash. Remember how much fun the 2008 recession was? It wouldn’t have qualified. The provincial government’s revenues fell only 4.6 per cent between 2008 and 2009. That would have meant immediate cuts to the provincial budget of $4 billion.

[...]

If it had been law, Ontario would also have had to say no to the federal government’s stimulus program, which demanded provincial governments participate. No to billions of dollars in highways, transit purchases, community-centre renovations, libraries, bought relatively cheaply at a time of record-low interest rates.

[...]

But the overwhelming consensus is that government stimulus was a big help. The Department of Finance says so, which you’d expect, since it led the stimulating. But so do the noted communists at Canada’s major banks and at think-tanks such as the Conference Board of Canada. Countries that didn’t do it are still struggling.

Point.

TSC's political shit-list (2014 Ontario Election), current standings:

Liberals: 3
NDP: 4
PC: 12

[The Supreme Canuck]

Just got off the phone with the PCs again. Of course they wanted to know my voting intentions. Told them off. Again. I've already told them I will not give them this information and that they should stop calling.

Guys: this doesn't work that way. Stop it. It is winning you no favours. It is, however, winning you a lot of points.

TSC's political shit-list (2014 Ontario Election), current standings:

Liberals: 3
NDP: 4
PC: 13

[Sigma_Orionis]

Stop Whining, you're a pinko commie Millennial

[The Supreme Canuck]

Worst part? It was over a telephone. A voice telephone. I had to talk into it, like some kind of animal! Couldn't they have tweeted me or something? Gawd.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Well! the Canadian-Vulcan Counselor Laughs! and used a smiley!. Hell, you just outdid Greta Garbo

[The Supreme Canuck]

I'm sure I have no idea what you're talking about.

[The Supreme Canuck]

Watched the televised debate earlier tonight.

First off, everyone gets a point. None of the leaders were actually debating in any way - it was just talking points. Blegh. Point, point, point.

Second, I was particularly unimpressed with Mr. Hudak (PC leader). While the other two tried to keep their talking points generally related to the question (and the Premier actually mentioned Ottawa's LRT prokect - the only one of the three to do so), Mr. Hudak did not. At all.

Question: "Mr. Hudak, which programs will you cut in order to balance the budget?"
Hudak: "Let me tell you a story about when I was in school, learning math..."

Blegh. Point.

His answers also didn't, well, involve logic. More than once, he said he wanted outcome X. Then he said he would do action Y, which would result in not-X. He would then conclude that action Y would result in X.

For example: He claims energy prices are high enough that employers aren't opening new plants or hiring. He therefore wants to lower energy prices. To do so, he will eliminate energy subsidies. This will cause prices to go up. But he claimed this would cause prices to go down. But... no. Just... it... it doesn't work that way.

Maddening. Point.

I was also unimpressed by the way that the Premier's responses were all over the place. She kept talking about... stuff. It didn't even seem like she was avoiding answers; it seemed like she was flustered and unable to answer things concisely. Didn't even mention the PC's wacky job calculations. Sloppy. Not good. Point.

TSC's political shit-list (2014 Ontario Election), current standings:

Liberals: 5
NDP: 5
PC: 16

[Parrothead]

IIRC, the energy subsidies he would end are new ones for renwable. Contracts already awarded or in the pipeline will be honoured. They would not bring in any new wind or solar to the Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) program. Under this piece of legislation, the first power taken for the system comes from renewable, problem being, most wind energy comes at times when it's not demanded, excess we sell at pennies on the dollar for export, while paying 42 cents per KWh (IIRC) for bringing it into the system. No matter, the energy system file has been bungled by all parties.

In the "debate" Wynne didn't do herself any favours. She claims the Liberals will balance the budget by 2017-18, though not saying how she (Liberals) will overcome the shortfall projected in the $10b range. Obviously either taxes will need to be raised or some programs cut, she never did say how they will overcome this number, only stating they will "invest in infrastructure" not saying where they intend to come up with the funds. That's the problem with the Liberals' math.

Speaking of math, I enjoyed the comment by Hudak criticising the implementation of "discovery math" in the school cirriculum. Basically, from my understanding, students are given math problems and left to themselves to "discover" ways of solving the problems. How about teaching the basics first (learning times tables) then move on to the discovery method? The Liberals tout their progress in education, stating how graduation rates have increased during the last 11 years that they have been in power. I'd say part of the reason for increased graduation rates also falls on the fact that teachers are no longer allowed to fail students. Everyone passes, regardless if they complete course work. A note goes into a student's file, if they don't complete all assignments, but all get passing grades. What lesson does this give students?

[The Supreme Canuck]

Yeah, I don't know about that. When I heard Hudak talking about math, all I could think about were the wrong-headed criticisms of the "new math" down in the States. Which, I've been assured by actual math teachers, is actually progress, no matter what people say.

But then this is an issue here in Ontario that I'm not terribly familiar with; that was just my uninformed impression. My mention of math above was about Hudak's cutesy, homey stories rather than about changes to the curriculum.

[The Supreme Canuck]

Guess who called again? Guess where I told them to go, again?

Really, the only thing that stopped me from losing it was the fact that the person on the other end of the phone was clearly just hired for the job - not actually involved with the PC party.

Point, jackasses. This is not the way to convince me to vote for you. You do not continue prying into my voting intentions when I tell you, explicitly and repeatedly, not to.

TSC's political shit-list (2014 Ontario Election), current standings:

Liberals: 5
NDP: 5
PC: 17

[SciFi Chick]

So y'all apparently don't have a do not call list up there in Canada...

[The Supreme Canuck]

We do. Political parties are exempt.

[SciFi Chick]

We do. Political parties are exempt.

Of course they are. Come to think of it, they are here as well.

[The Supreme Canuck]

I mean, it's not the fact that they're calling that bothers me - I don't mind that in the least. It's the constant prying against my expressed wishes that bothers me.

[The Supreme Canuck]

The media finally pinned down the Conservative leader on the issue of Ottawa's transit expansion. Until now, he's been cagey. Today he definitively answered that he would not fund the next phase of the LRT project. At the same time, he has committed to spending billions on transit in the Toronto region. Ontario can't afford to spend on transit right now... unless it's transit in the GTA. Obviously.

Guess who doesn't matter to Tim Hudak? Me, that's who.

Point.

Even more irritatingly, the local PC candidates seem to have been caught flat-footed on this - they've been saying that funding would certainly be possible under a Tory government. Guess no one sent them a memo. I suppose candidates from the area don't much matter to Tim Hudak, either.

TSC's political shit-list (2014 Ontario Election), current standings:

Liberals: 5
NDP: 5
PC: 18

[Parrothead]

Apparently Hudak back-pedaled a bit. He now supports funding of Phase 2, but only after the budget is balanced.

Wynne was busy dancing around questions put to her about the Liberal platform numbers. Being asked how they plan to cut 6% from some gov't ministries totalling cuts of $800m, yet somehow implying this can be done without cutting programs or jobs. Liberal math doesn't seem to add up either.

Amazingly in the same interview on TVO, yesterday, she continues to seem it is fine to compare/insinuate Hudak will be same/worse than Harris, yet feels she and her time in office can't be compared to those of her predecesor. She states public sector jobs will be slashed under the Tories, then states public sector pay will have to be kept in line (after they have recently granted generous 5 - 8% increases recently to teachers and police). Wynne said she would re-introduce the latest Liberal budget if elected within 20 days. Since that budget, the Liberals also announced plans of $1b for fast rail from Windsor to Ottawa and $1b for investment in "Ring of Fire" access/mining in the North of the province. Where the heck are they going to find those funds?

The gas-plant saga continues, police asking the Liberals to hand over "documents they know they have", seeing as they had questioned McGuinty in April. These requests do not involve Wynne or any of her staff, but staff of McGuinty's and the deletion of emails about the gas plant cancellations. The party can't help but be tainted from all the scandals that have happened and continue to creep up. Especially if the OPP have to keep returning to Queen's Park, demanding more documents.

I cast my ballot a couple of days ago. It should be interesting to see how the leaders can play together in another minority - Wynne suing Hudak for libel, Horwath calling Liberals corrupt. Yeah, we'll be at the polls again in no time.

[The Supreme Canuck]

Apparently Hudak back-pedaled a bit. He now supports funding of Phase 2, but only after the budget is balanced.

Looks like he has. But in a kind of insulting way:

"Some have tried to misrepresent my consistent position on Phase 2 of the Ottawa LRT. First priority is balancing the budget," he tweeted. "Only after the budget is balanced can we afford infrastructure investment like the Ottawa LRT. I look forward to a detailed proposal."

Source: CBC News

Rubbish. No one was misrepresenting him. He said "no" unequivocally. He made no mention of funding following balancing the budget.

I'm giving him a point for that. It's bafflegab and spin.

I mean, had he actually meant that from the start, he would have said so not only at the press conference, but also in the letter he sent to the mayor of Ottawa. See, our mayor sent a questionnaire to the leaders of the PCs, Liberals, NDP, and Greens asking about issues of importance to the city. The three other leaders answered the questions. Mr. Hudak sent a form letter that did not actually answer anything.

Seriously:

Watson sent a questionnaire to four provincial party leaders on May 13, asking five yes-or-no questions about their positions on issues “of vital importance to the future of the city.” Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath and Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner answered each of the questions.

The PCs, though, sent a boiler-plate response which touts their “million jobs plan” and includes a link to the party’s website, but which Watson says doesn’t mention Ottawa or answer any of the questions he posed.

“It was really disappointing,” the mayor said in an interview Thursday after release the leaders’ answers. “This is clearly a form letter that’s sent to lots of people who write to Mr. Hudak. The other parties took the time to answer the questions, and Mr. Hudak for some reason thought a form letter was a better approach which, quite frankly, puzzles me.”

“I didn’t ask about the million jobs plan, but that’s the answer I got back.”

Source: Ottawa Citizen

I mean... come the hell on. If you aren't going to even talk to my mayor about my city's issues, why should I ever think you care about me? Utterly tone-deaf; entirely insulting.

He gets another point for that.

And, yeah, I'm giving the PCs a lot of points. But... really, come now. They are not acquitting themselves very well, here. I couldn't make up that letter stunt if I tried. Ridiculous.

Wynne was busy dancing around questions put to her about the Liberal platform numbers. Being asked how they plan to cut 6% from some gov't ministries totalling cuts of $800m, yet somehow implying this can be done without cutting programs or jobs. Liberal math doesn't seem to add up either.

Amazingly in the same interview on TVO, yesterday, she continues to seem it is fine to compare/insinuate Hudak will be same/worse than Harris, yet feels she and her time in office can't be compared to those of her predecesor. She states public sector jobs will be slashed under the Tories, then states public sector pay will have to be kept in line (after they have recently granted generous 5 - 8% increases recently to teachers and police). Wynne said she would re-introduce the latest Liberal budget if elected within 20 days. Since that budget, the Liberals also announced plans of $1b for fast rail from Windsor to Ottawa and $1b for investment in "Ring of Fire" access/mining in the North of the province. Where the heck are they going to find those funds?

Yep. And I gave her a point for her funny numbers already.

The gas-plant saga continues, police asking the Liberals to hand over "documents they know they have", seeing as they had questioned McGuinty in April. These requests do not involve Wynne or any of her staff, but staff of McGuinty's and the deletion of emails about the gas plant cancellations. The party can't help but be tainted from all the scandals that have happened and continue to creep up. Especially if the OPP have to keep returning to Queen's Park, demanding more documents.

I still cannot bring myself to care about the gas plants. I still see mismanagement rather than corruption.

I cast my ballot a couple of days ago. It should be interesting to see how the leaders can play together in another minority - Wynne suing Hudak for libel, Horwath calling Liberals corrupt. Yeah, we'll be at the polls again in no time.

I give it 18 months on the outside with a Liberal minority. Maybe 8 months with a Tory minority. The NDP will play nicer with the Grits.

Edit:

Whoops. Forgot the scoreboard.

TSC's political shit-list (2014 Ontario Election), current standings:

Liberals: 5
NDP: 5
PC: 20

[The Supreme Canuck]

Mr. Hudak was back in town today. Backpedalling. He was saying that he would fund Ottawa's LRT expansion. Well, kind of. He didn't promise money. He said that Ottawa would have access to the general transit fund in a few years. No guarantee of direct funding, no guarantee of approval after application to the fund, and no guarantee any approved funds would be sufficient. No guarantee of anything, in fact.

But he was playing it up like no one's business. He was acting like he had made a direct funding announcement.

Worse, he was berating those who had called him on his previous statements. I mean, had he gone up there and said "I've listened to Ottawa residents and, as a result, I've made a policy change," I'd be down with that. That's a good thing. That's what I want. I'd have praise for him.

He didn't do that.

Instead, he was saying things like "As I've been saying since the start of this campaign, despite what my opponents have been telling you, Ottawa is absolutely getting its fair share of transit cash." That's a face-saving, out-and-out lie.

Therefore, point.

TSC's political shit-list (2014 Ontario Election), current standings:

Liberals: 5
NDP: 5
PC: 21

[Parrothead]

Gas plants, many times Wynne has stated it was a political decision. Perhaps mismanagement, but the accusations and police investigations into the alleged deletion of gov't emails and erasing hard drives on gov't computers, allegedly by McGuinty's staff cannot be viewed as mere mismanagement. With the other scandals the Liberals have piled up over the past 11 years, they shouldn't even be in the running to form a gov't again. Wynne wants to only be judged on her performance since being selected by party members to succeed McGuinty, not the record of the past 11 years which she served as a minister in.

This campaign has been all about fear mongering (not the Liberal record of the past 11 years) and how bad a Hudak gov't would be for the province. I caught the last bit of my local candidates' debate on the cable channel over the weekend. The current Liberal incumbant, when it came to closing arguments, chose to talk about the ad run by the Police Association, basically implying if the provincial police union feared a Hudak gov't, maybe the electorate should too.

In one of the debates for a downtown riding, the Liberal candidate was going on about the PC math, re "a million jobs" ( to be created) over 8 years, yet later mentions the past couple of years, under the Liberal gov't, on average 125,000 jobs a year have been created and it would be nice to see this continue. Uhm 125,000 times 8 equals 1 million. So Liberals can create a million jobs over 8 years but not PCs ?

Why are the fire fighters union even getting into the fray, coming out against the possibility of a Hudak gov't, fire fighters are paid by municipalities, not the province.

I'll be glad when this election is over.

The union for newspaper journalists (including papers Globe and Mail, Toronto Star and Toronto Sun) has asked members not to vote for Hudak. So far the Editorials for the Globe and Mail and Sun have wriiten in favour of Hudak, the G&M editorial backing a PC minority with reservations, while the Toronto Star has come out in support of Wynne.

IIRC, after the Liberals introduced the budget which triggered this election, many economists stated the budget would likely trigger another downgrade to the provice's credit rating. The first downgrade came in 2012 (IIRC). The interest payment on the debt is the third highest expenditure facing the provincial gov't.