Banana Republic Newsflash

[SciFiFisher]

Right, Fisher the Spook, let me guess, yer middle name is Lynch

I could tell you but then I would have to (symbolically) kill you.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Right, Fisher the Spook, let me guess, yer middle name is Lynch

I could tell you but then I would have to (symbolically) kill you.

You don't have to tell me, Wikipedia just told me that yer that fabled Spook Operative known as "El Kabong!"

[SciFiFisher]

Right, Fisher the Spook, let me guess, yer middle name is Lynch

I could tell you but then I would have to (symbolically) kill you.

You don't have to tell me, Wikipedia just told me that yer that fabled Spook Operative known as "El Kabong!"

hmmmm... that would make you Baba Looey then.

[Sigma_Orionis]

[Sigma_Orionis]

More Wishful thinking.

The endgame in Venezuela

And of course it doesn't mention that even IF that happened, how messy things would get once some sane economic policies were taken.

[Sigma_Orionis]

After thinking about it, maybe that piece at the Economist is up to something.


Recently, Nicky and his Band of Merry Idiots decided it was high time to declare an "Economic Emergency", where the government has now prerogatives such as seizing private assets arbitrarily. According to that hack job of a Constitution we have, THAT can only be declared with the approval of the National Assembly. Well guess what? The Assembly said NO (which makes sense, the government has caused this mess and now we're going to give them everything so they can mess up even more?) So Nicky went to the Supreme Court to contest that decision. And, "surprisingly" the Court ruled in favor of the government.

IMHO this confirms beyond any doubt that, "separation of powers" is at best, wishful thinking in this country.

SO, how does this lead to a "negotiated transition" like the one the Economist describes?

Let's remember that the government DID accept the result of the assembly elections. Nicky did plenty of dirty tricks around it (pushing for early retirement of 13 justices, contesting the results of the elections of some assembly seats, denying the "super majority" to the opposition, etc.) But it had to swallow it.

After the latest news I have little doubt that the government thought it could have used the court to impugn the assembly elections but something prevented it from doing so. What could have stopped the government from simply impugning the elections? Come on, this is Latin America, what else? The Military.

Ever since the elections (you see, the Military has been in charge of safeguarding the ballots since at least.... 1961?), the Military has kept a VERY VERY low profile. Very Odd, considering how much Chavez loved to place them in charge of civilian posts, AND Nicky just loved to say that the "Revolution" was a "Civilian-Military Collaboration".

There have been a couple of rumors going on for a while:

One is that AFTER the attempted coup of 2002, several of Chavez's sycophant inner circle (Nicky, Numero Dos and some others) tried to convince him to suspend the constitution and "rule with the people" (translation for those who can't read Communist bullcrap: SELF-COUP) And he told them to STFU. After seeing Nicky and Numero Dos in action for the last 2 years, I have little reason to believe the rumor is false.

The other rumor is that the government (particularly Numero Dos) was all set to renege on the the election results, but was stopped by the Minister of Defense who told Numero Dos (or so the rumor says) in no uncertain terms, pistol in hand, that it wasn't going to happen.

So, maybe, just maybe, April will come, the Assembly will start the referendum proceedings and the government will be strangely compliant (because the Military will "explain" to the government that it has no choice). I think it's the best hope we've got. There is little doubt we're going to default this year on our Foreign Obligations. The Chinese are not going to give us one more cent. As much as the Russkies would love to stir the pot to piss off the US State Department, they can't feed themselves. And we cut ourselves off the IMF. So, the alternative is too ugly to think about. Either we have a referendum in a couple of months OR we start having riots that will make the ones we had in 1988 seem tame in comparison.

[SciFiFisher]

I will keep my fingers crossed for a referendum.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Well Nicky just raised the price of Gasoline it went up at the very least TENFOLD, the government also claims it will "simplify" the mess with the current fix exchange rate. According to these guys these measures are at best half-baked. We'll see.

I didn't think Nicky had the guts to do this (as half-baked as they MIGHT be). Again, we'll see.

[Swift]

Recently, Nicky and his Band of Merry Idiots decided it was high time to declare an "Economic Emergency", where the government has now prerogatives such as seizing private assets arbitrarily.

I thought Nicky and friends always had that prerogative, or was there just a continuing "Economic Emergency"?

[Sigma_Orionis]

Recently, Nicky and his Band of Merry Idiots decided it was high time to declare an "Economic Emergency", where the government has now prerogatives such as seizing private assets arbitrarily.

I thought Nicky and friends always had that prerogative, or was there just a continuing "Economic Emergency"?

Without the "Economic Emergency" declared he'd have to go through the Justice System. The thing is that the "Justice System" does whatever he wants.

[grapes]

NPR was discussing gas prices in Venuzula this morning. "The omens were ... ominous."

[Pip]

Gosh, the people world is kinda spooky.

[Sigma_Orionis]

NPR was discussing gas prices in Venuzula this morning. "The omens were ... ominous."

Yeah

[Sigma_Orionis]

Gosh, the people world is kinda spooky.

But we got chocolate

[Sigma_Orionis]

You want ominous?

Read this

[Sigma_Orionis]

Scrapping the bottom of the barrel....

Venezuela is shipping gold to pay debt

[vendic]

Here you go.

RZ1oMMF.jpg

[Sigma_Orionis]

Yer gonna have to mansplain that Zee

[vendic]

Yer gonna have to mansplain that Zee

Really?

[Sigma_Orionis]

Nope

[SciFiFisher]

This is an interesting read. How Venezuela Would Remove its President Essentially Maduro is on his way out. The question is how will his exit be orchestrated?

[Sigma_Orionis]

Not bad, Sometimes I think Stratfor especulates way too much, but this time, it seems spot on.

I'm hoping for Scenario 2, which seems to be the less troublesome. We'll see.

[SciFiFisher]

Not bad, Sometimes I think Stratfor especulates way too much, but this time, it seems spot on.

I'm hoping for Scenario 2, which seems to be the less troublesome. We'll see.

STRATFOR does a better job of extrapolating what might happen in various scenarios than most. One of the things I appreciate about them is the way the lay out the facts and show you why they come to the conclusions they do.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Well whatever scenario plays out, it will most probably happen before October

Deepening default fears cast shadow over Venezuela's oil flows

[Sigma_Orionis]

Oh yeah, Chavez that Galactic Giant freed us of the insolent boot of those evil imperialist gringos....... NOT

Venezuela is making 'surreal, suicidal' debt payments

OBVIOUSLY NOT

Explainer: What’s the Big Deal About Default