Primary Season

[Sigma_Orionis]

https://apnews.com/ab2c6b32ad17417aae56988c0a4798db

He conceded, yay. I'm actually quite surprised.

I was relieved. Apparently, he was so disliked by his own party they decided to refuse to help steal the election.

I figured that either A) Someone told him that the State Supreme Court would not play ball or B) Someone had dirt on him.

[lady_*nix]

A) seems possible, B) pretty much guaranteed, TBH.

With the political climate here I'm increasingly worried about enforcement, re: court decisions. Trump has angry mobs on his side, and unfortunately a lot of people in said mobs are police officers - the Fraternal Order of Police endorsed him, Boston's police union is very much on his side, etc. Rule of law here (as in most places) is backed by threat of violence, and it will only hold as long as those with the power of violence actually serve it. Once they decide they like the President more than they like the rule of law... well.

But, some rando governor losing his election in Kentucky is on different ground from the President. I guess.

[Rommie]

Well put it this way, LN (that abbreviation ok? ), I don't think anyone is going to make the governorship of Kentucky their Waterloo. Firstly, what's the point when it's really still a Republican stronghold, and secondly when the governor there was known for being such a complete asshole. Like, you really don't get close like that unless you are truly a terrible person (looking at you, Roy Moore and Ted Cruz).

But anyway. My African-American colleagues are pretty upset by Pete Buttigeig's recent shenanigans in South Carolina and are calling for him to drop out. Basically, he sent out a plan to address various minority issues and claimed 400 activists endorsed him or some such... and several of those activists got upset, saying they never had endorsed. Turns out they were sent a random email by the campaign, and told they had to "opt out" of endorsement, which seems like a helluva lot of chutzpah.

Also, if you missed it, Trump quietly went to the hospital yesterday and canceled public stuff today. They officially claim he is starting stuff on his annual physical early, but c'mon, does anyone really believe a 73 year old known liar who eats a ton of fast food on that one? And my understanding is it's not like there isn't any medical staff on hand at the White House, so if you're at the point of going to the hospital as president, it's likely in more serious territory.

[lady_*nix]

@Rommie: yep, LN is okay

Re: Kentucky as Waterloo. I think you are correct, but mainly because the Repubs feel breaking the law for this would be a lot of effort for little return. If they thought it was worthwhile, they would, and likely face no consequences.

It all comes back to lack of accountability IMO. Humans with no fear of consequences for their actions tend to get pretty awful pretty fast.

Re: Buttigieg. I saw. Have to say that's transparently slimy even for what I'd seen of him already, and I also think he should bow out and hope he does.

And re Trump: go, atherosclerosis, go.

[Rommie]

Well, kids, I think today was a pivotal day for American democracy. If you can have an ambassador who donated the president a million dollars say during an impeachment hearing that there was a quid pro quo and everyone knew about it, and not get that president out... I'm not sure American democracy will survive much longer.

I mean seriously. If I was a Republican I'd just be worried about the precedent it sets when someone I don't agree with becomes president. Hell I'm worried about those implications even if someone I vote for gets elected.

It's sure going to be an interesting Thanksgiving dinner at my parents this year!

[lady_*nix]

... No shit. I'm actually shocked, and still not optimistic about outcomes; suspect Republicans love their orange rubber stamp machine too much to let him be disposed of. If nothing else I'm sure they'll work very hard to swap Pence in.

Best of luck with the Thanksgiving dinner, in any case.

Meanwhile, the Army places Alexander Vindman under 24 hour protective surveillance:

https://twitter.com/numbersmuncher/stat ... 53602?s=21

I'm also genuinely shocked they even bothered. But IDK I know basically nothing about the internal politics of the US military.

[SciFiFisher]

... No shit. I'm actually shocked, and still not optimistic about outcomes; suspect Republicans love their orange rubber stamp machine too much to let him be disposed of. If nothing else I'm sure they'll work very hard to swap Pence in.

Best of luck with the Thanksgiving dinner, in any case.

Meanwhile, the Army places Alexander Vindman under 24 hour protective surveillance:

https://twitter.com/numbersmuncher/stat ... 53602?s=21

I'm also genuinely shocked they even bothered. But IDK I know basically nothing about the internal politics of the US military.

The military as an organization is still *reasonably* apolitical. Not so much at the upper echelons because the only way you make General and stay at that rank is to be a political player. That doesn't mean that the higher ranks are Republican vs Democrat. It means that they usually know how to navigate the political landscape. As far as the military allowing one of their own to be left out for slaughter we definitely have not hit that level of political gamesmanship. Sometimes it's hard to differentiate between the behavior of an organization vs someone looking out for themselves. Even the military has the latter.

[geonuc]

Senator Harris is dropping out, which would mark the first major contender to do so. I thought she stood a good chance against Trump but her campaign has foundered.

[Rommie]

I saw that too! Shame because I similarly thought she should do reasonably well this summer (hey, didn't me seeing her this weekend start this thread?). But the issue is IMO in such a crowded field, even someone like a senator from California couldn't get things done.

Speaking of primary contenders btw, I told you guys Elizabeth Warren's house is a few blocks from my work, right? I had to walk to the closest drugstore today, and am fairly certain she drives a Volvo. Just wanted to share that piece of riveting information.

[lady_*nix]

Hahaha yaaaaay. For some reason I'm not at all surprised by her choice of car.

(BTW Rommie if you wanted to say hi sometime, I'm in roughly the same area and frequent Harvard Square regularly!)

[Rommie]

Check your inbox.

[SciFiFisher]

Senator Harris is dropping out, which would mark the first major contender to do so. I thought she stood a good chance against Trump but her campaign has foundered.

Yes, she had a strong start. I was somewhat surprised that she dropped so fast. I thought she was running a pretty decent campaign. According to the pundits she had a hard time translating out of California. Sort of like the new kid who was popular at their old school who transfers to a new school and then can't become one of the cool kids.

[SciFiFisher]

We also lost a couple of "contenders" in the last week who barely registered on the playing field. Joe Sestak a former Pennsylvania representative and Steve Bullock, governor of Montana. Brings us down to about 10 or 11 people still in the running.

[geonuc]

Senator Harris is dropping out, which would mark the first major contender to do so. I thought she stood a good chance against Trump but her campaign has foundered.

Yes, she had a strong start. I was somewhat surprised that she dropped so fast. I thought she was running a pretty decent campaign. According to the pundits she had a hard time translating out of California. Sort of like the new kid who was popular at their old school who transfers to a new school and then can't become one of the cool kids.

I read also that her campaign focused on states with large minority populations like South Carolina hoping to get a large groundswell of support when it should have first concentrated on New Hampshire and Iowa, where the polling folks tend to focus.

[Rommie]

So I saw this and for a second hoped it was a Photoshopped joke.

Trump is totally going to win if Biden gets the nomination, guys.

[geonuc]

Yikes. Well, it will appeal to older folks (OK, Boomer!) who are familiar with malarkey and are fed up with it. Dang it.

[lady_*nix]

@Rommie: yaaaaay saw your message, thank ye!

And yeah honestly I think Biden would be a repeat of Clinton, except he'd probably lose the popular vote too. He is extremely old guard, and that is a liability even before his political stance (less progressive than Clinton's) and his Creepy Uncle personality.

Right now we're facing a big stack of crises, some of which threaten to end human civilization entirely. Wages are still incredibly low vs. inflation, and vs. increases in tuition and housing costs. Transit infrastructure in a lot of cities is falling apart. Deregulation is making pollution worse. Healthcare is still unaffordable for most people despite the ACA. Etc. The reason we're seeing socialism go mainstream again is that liberalism/social democracy/etc. has been failing to deliver the absolute basics. FDR held that off for the better part of a century with the New Deal, but the New Deal is being systematically dismantled, and the old guard Democrats show no sign of wanting to restore it fully.

"But we have to appeal to conservative voters!" the moderates say. Yeah, people who have an utterly different set of goals and moral principles. The Republican party has been getting progressively more extreme since the Bill Clinton years (earlier than that, really) and there is a positive feedback loop between them, their voter base, and their propagandists on FOX and other far-right media. We're thinking about how we can try to survive the climate crisis; they're thinking about how they'll survive the Rapture. We're thinking about what's the best way to provide medical care for everyone; they're thinking about how to deny it to Satanic LGBT folks. We're thinking about how to best protect women's rights; they're thinking about how to restore the Cult of Domesticity to its full glory.

We are operating in different moral universes, and Republican voters' views are far more extreme. Trying to compromise with them is a losing proposition. As for swing voters, IMO the best way to appeal to them is on an issues basis, and moderates have been weak on that for a while now.

[Rommie]

Yes. I mean the strange thing is you actually can probably get a lot of people who voted Trump last time if you are progressive. The guy won a lot of voters the first time around promising jobs and infrastructure, after all, and didn't exactly deliver much there if you're a blue collar worker who took that chance. I mean, if you're still in Trump's wheelhouse by this point you're never going to change, but they weren't enough to put him there in the first place- it's those "protest vote" people you need to think about.

I think the trick is Biden harkens back to if you're nostalgic for a "why can't we get back to normal politics" mode, and of course old people tend to be more nostalgic. And to be fair, Biden used to be a helluva politician some years ago- I know my SIL still likes him for that reason for example. Unfortunately though I'm not sure I see much evidence for that politician he used to be in his current campaign- he seems to mainly be running on the "vote for me because I have the best chance of winning" platform over substantive ideas, and that's just not enough to win against an incumbent.

Also! Can I share a funny story guys? My parents were giving us a ride to the airport on Sunday after Thanksgiving and literally in the last five minutes Bloomberg came up (we were so good about no politics discussed until then!). Then my mom raised the opinion of "why are all these old guys running? Do they think 80 year olds represent the country? They're selfish and should support younger people instead!"

Which, as you all know, I also totally agree with. But given the timing it was not about to say "so you're not voting for Trump then?"

I mean you can either cry or laugh, so I'm going to laugh.

[geonuc]

Watching the video and reading about Biden's recent town hall incident. The news are all aghast because he may have called a guy 'fat'. The video has horrible audio - you can't tell if he did or not. First off, how is that the case? Why don't we have clear video/audio of a major candidate's town hall rally?

Anyway, in watching the exchange where the man accused Biden of sending his son over to Ukraine inappropriately yada yada yada, Biden suddenly turns on him and says "You're a damn liar!"

To me, that's what we should be focusing on. Biden lost his cool very quickly in a setting (town hall) where he's there to answer people's concerns about his candidacy.

I've said it before - Joe Biden has done great service to this country as a vice-president and more particularly in the Senate, but he needs to drop out.

[SciFiFisher]

To me, that's what we should be focusing on. Biden lost his cool very quickly in a setting (town hall) where he's there to answer people's concerns about his candidacy.

I've said it before - Joe Biden has done great service to this country as a vice-president and more particularly in the Senate, but he needs to drop out.

Many of the commentators on the left side of the divide were saying that losing his temper is not the main issue. They even stated that losing his temper in defense of his son was mostly a "positive" because he was doing it in defense of his family which is a pretty consistent trait for Joe. What they say is hurting him is that he has been letting the GOP and Trump mostly control the narrative about his son and him using his position as VP to get the son a job. Joe and his campaign needed to put a game plan together and start pushing out a consistent message and controlling the narrative a week before the GOP started theirs.

[Rommie]

To me, that's what we should be focusing on. Biden lost his cool very quickly in a setting (town hall) where he's there to answer people's concerns about his candidacy.

I've said it before - Joe Biden has done great service to this country as a vice-president and more particularly in the Senate, but he needs to drop out.

Many of the commentators on the left side of the divide were saying that losing his temper is not the main issue. They even stated that losing his temper in defense of his son was mostly a "positive" because he was doing it in defense of his family which is a pretty consistent trait for Joe. What they say is hurting him is that he has been letting the GOP and Trump mostly control the narrative about his son and him using his position as VP to get the son a job. Joe and his campaign needed to put a game plan together and start pushing out a consistent message and controlling the narrative a week before the GOP started theirs.

I don't know if that's going to happen though because honestly they just keep seeming surprised when anyone says a mean thing about them. Even a fellow Democrat, let alone the GOP machine. It's weird.

[SciFiFisher]

Saw my very first Bloomberg for President ad this weekend. It will be very interesting to see if he can spend his way into being the candidate.

[Sigma_Orionis]

To me, that's what we should be focusing on. Biden lost his cool very quickly in a setting (town hall) where he's there to answer people's concerns about his candidacy.

I've said it before - Joe Biden has done great service to this country as a vice-president and more particularly in the Senate, but he needs to drop out.

Many of the commentators on the left side of the divide were saying that losing his temper is not the main issue. They even stated that losing his temper in defense of his son was mostly a "positive" because he was doing it in defense of his family which is a pretty consistent trait for Joe. What they say is hurting him is that he has been letting the GOP and Trump mostly control the narrative about his son and him using his position as VP to get the son a job. Joe and his campaign needed to put a game plan together and start pushing out a consistent message and controlling the narrative a week before the GOP started theirs.

I don't know if that's going to happen though because honestly they just keep seeming surprised when anyone says a mean thing about them. Even a fellow Democrat, let alone the GOP machine. It's weird.

I think that people in those positions are usually surrounded by a cloud of other people who tell the former what they want to hear. Even of the "VIP" in question didn't sought it. So, when confronted by someone outside the circle they tend to react in shock.

[SciFiFisher]

And Julian Castro has announced he is out of the running. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/castro- ... d=66774136

[SciFiFisher]

What is amazing is that even with all the ones who are dropping out there are still 14 candidates for the Democratic Nomination.