Primary Season

[lady_*nix]

So this editorial basically nails my feelings about Biden:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... 0-election

He is a boring, moderate, establishment candidate. Trump has repeatedly proven his ability to steamroller moderate candidates. Easy to see where this is going IMO.

[Rommie]

Nothing I haven't been saying about Biden for some time! If he gets it Trump will get reelected, no question.

I confess though I've yet to actually meet a Biden supporter. Do they really exist?

But yeah I got into a malaise of the past few weeks in that I really think Trump is just going to get re-elected at this rate. (Man, I'm starting to sound like squ1d.) I just can't imagine any of the old guys in the race winning against him (Sanders can talk a storm, but I don't think a guy with heart trouble is a great look for a candidate), and Lord help us if Mayor Pete gets it because he's clearly too green to come off as more than a schoolboy in this against all the money and power of the Republican machine. So I guess out of the people I think have a realistic chance, I'm Team Warren... because ultimately I have the least hesitations about her, they are less fundamental problems over optics, and ultimately the Republican machine will clearly attack anyone anyway.

So hey, true position of power.

[lady_*nix]

@Rommie

Aye, sorry. And same re Trump getting reelected. I sure hope not... but.

Though Mitch McConnell is up for reelection too, and the Dem running against him is a veteran:

https://www.elle.com/culture/career-pol ... nate-2020/

IDK much about McGrath, but I'm hoping we can take more Senate seats and oust some of the worst Repubs.

Meanwhile yeah, I'm also in the Warren camp because least harm. And being exasperated by socialists pinning all their hopes on Bernie (again).

[Rommie]

Eh, for McConnell I remember 6 years ago he had a serious primary challenger and barely didn't make it. But he did, so honestly I'm not sure how much more luck a Democrat would face in Kentucky if a Republican primary challenger couldn't do it.

[SciFiFisher]

Eh, for McConnell I remember 6 years ago he had a serious primary challenger and barely didn't make it. But he did, so honestly I'm not sure how much more luck a Democrat would face in Kentucky if a Republican primary challenger couldn't do it.

Well, they did just elect a D for governor.

[lady_*nix]

And now that they have a Dem governor, I do wonder if there could be some undoing of voter disenfranchisement BS.

Assuming, anyway, that human civilization continues existing long enough for it to happen.

[Rommie]

Eh, for McConnell I remember 6 years ago he had a serious primary challenger and barely didn't make it. But he did, so honestly I'm not sure how much more luck a Democrat would face in Kentucky if a Republican primary challenger couldn't do it.

Well, they did just elect a D for governor.

True but from talking to people in the state, I'm not sure if it was a lot to do with them going Democrat over really hating the Republican as a person. Sort of like how Ted Cruz managed to almost lose a senate seat in Texas. I could be wrong though (and to be clear, would love to be wrong, just won't get my hopes up early).

[SciFiFisher]

And now that they have a Dem governor, I do wonder if there could be some undoing of voter disenfranchisement BS.

Assuming, anyway, that human civilization continues existing long enough for it to happen.

Well, we do seem to be almost as persistent as cockroaches.

[lady_*nix]

Maybe we should make more like roaches, and like... be more humble and stop enslaving each other and stuff.

[SciFiFisher]

And Corey Booker has officially dropped out.

[Rommie]

I'm not shocked. What did shock me was my news alert on Friday informing me Marrianne Williamson was dropping out, and I was all "wait, she was still in it?!"

Latest polls out of Iowa show Bernie first, then Warren, then Pete, then Biden... but honestly when your top vote getter is at 20%, it's obviously still anyone's game. I also noticed that's gonna be the Tuesday after the Super Bowl btw so guess I'll be busy on the sofa that week on evenings.

[Rommie]

So, pretty crazy with Iowa huh?

I do hope this means the end of the caucus. I mean, I already was thinking it was a dumb system (why the hell can't your vote count if you have an evening job or a small child in this day and age?), but I can't really see it surviving after this shit show.

[SciFiFisher]

I think this shit show in Iowa will cause a really hard look at letting them keep the coveted position of being a national bellwether. Apparently there has been recommendations to get rid of the caucus for some time. At least 15 states still use that system. https://www.theclassroom.com/many-state ... 10319.html

[geonuc]

As I've mentioned elsewhere, I think another state should go first - preferably a larger state with some electoral clout and one that uses standard voting methods. Ohio, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Colorado, Arizona ...

[Rommie]

I believe part of the trouble is New Hampshire legit has a law that they have to be seven days before any other state. But I'm sure some creative people can sort out a work around.

I also think these days they should pick a few swing states to start (because not only do you want the most viable folks there, it'd also be nice if all the political experts didn't just up and leave for the general), and rotate between them. A place like Ohio isn't that much bigger or smaller than Iowa so I certainly don't see why it can't work. I suspect you don't want to make it everyone at once just because then a guy like Bloomberg would win every time.

Also, ranked choice voting. Perfect for something like primaries. I mean, perfect for a lot of things in general, but we should control what we can here (fun fact, might be on the ballot in Massachusetts this year!).

[SciFiFisher]

Frankly, I am trying to understand how New Hampshire can enforce that law if the DNC and almost everyone else were to ignore it?

[geonuc]

I'd love to see ranked choice implemented.

[Rommie]

So, I confess I spent a bit of time listening to Bernie Sanders lately as he's been doing so well. Honestly, if you listen to him speak I think he sounds a lot better than he did four years ago. For years ago he definitely had the vibe of someone looking to just say his piece, and then only thought about trying to win others over once he was several states in the campaign. He is definitely striking a more inclusive tone now (and frankly his supporters are far less aggressive and more pragmatic, which I don't know if that matters much for the candidate you're voting for but definitely affects me more than it perhaps should). I guess four years definitely helps one develop their message and platform.

Also I am disappointed in Warren fading, but more relieved that Biden is doing so poorly, so won't get too worked up about it. My issues about Sanders are more in if the machine against him will be enough to convince certain demographics not to vote for him, whereas Biden I was literally worried he wouldn't be able to articulate any message.

Finally, I checked fivethirtyeight and they now have 40% chances of Bernie winning, and a 33% chance as next up that it would be a brokered convention. That certainly hasn't happened any time soon, and I hope it doesn't because I can imagine far more ways it ends badly for the Dems than helps.

[SciFiFisher]

The surprise, in a good way, in NH was Buttigieg and Klobuchar doing very well. It is going to be very interesting to see what happens in the next few states.

[Rommie]

I hope Klobuchar can somehow manage to better than Pete after all this time. I will obviously vote Dem, but can't imagine doing so with confidence for a former mayor of a small town when we could have gone for a US Senator. I think Pete has his work cut out for him in minority communities though, and wonder how different things will look in a few days.

[SciFiFisher]

One thing that is somewhat significant is that California has an earlier primary this year. With nearly 500 delegates California is going to be a big indicator on March 3 about who is going to get the D-nomination.

[geonuc]

Bloomberg's credibility just plummeted with me after reading the Post article on the edited debate video his campaign is airing. He (his campaign) took the two second pause after he asked a question about anyone besides him starting a business and inserted twenty-two seconds of shots of the other candidates looking confused or embarrassed, all of which were from different points in the debate.

[Loresinger]

IF bernie wins he has to pick a KICK ASS vp. Otherwise we are doomed.

[SciFiFisher]

It's going to be interesting to see who pulls out in front after March 3. Interesting news last week about the Russians helping Bernie and Trump. Bernie did not look good responding to that tidbit. Trump fired the people in the intelligence community who briefed Congress and now the administration is claiming the reports were faked.

We. Are. Fucked. Unless we all show up and vote. If Bernie wins the nomination I will vote for him. I would vote for a slime mold over Trump. Bernie could pick a mannequin for his VP running mate and I would still vote for him over Trump.

[Rommie]

Got a Bernie flyer in my door yesterday while I was out. I guess Cambridge is a good place to canvass if you're looking for more Bernie votes, because it's prime Warren territory. I still prefer the latter, but don't think she has a great shot going forward.

As for Bernie's response, I thought "I don't care what Putin thinks, and when I'm president I'll ensure this can't happen" is about as good a response as one can do with that news. It definitely makes you second guess things though- like, did Warren fade compared to Bernie because of Russian interference? How much of the asshole Bernie bros on the Internet are actually Russians trying to stir up trouble? Which is of course the point of what they want to do, stir up confusion and a lack of trust. It sucks how well it's working, and how little people are proactive about addressing it.

I will say, if it ends up being Sanders (as it increasingly appears) I do greatly appreciate that there are some seriously enthusiastic people supporting him (and I don't think they're even all assholes for sure). While work is certainly cut out for us if Sanders gets the nominee, he does fulfill my criteria of how it's not enough to just want to vote against the incumbent- you need a challenger who stands for something too. (I think John Kerry established in 2004 that it's not enough to just run on how the other guy sucks.)