Primary Season

[geonuc]

I think it's preposterous that the media - and therefore, the internet at large - is proclaiming Sanders to be the front-runner like he's about got it wrapped up. We've had Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada so far. Three states whose populations are hardly a blip in the electoral roadmap.

It's preposterous because we do this to ourselves. And by we, I mean the two major parties. I've railed against Iowa and NH going first for a long time but what about this idea: hold all state primaries on the same day. No reason we can't. Sure, the candidates would have to adjust their campaign strategies but that would only mean they'd have to look like general election campaigns.

[Rommie]

It's definitely dumb. People have such short term memories it's insane. Like if you're so excited about Super Tuesday meaning more people get a say earlier in the process, why obsess so much over what others are doing?

I feel like it happens most elections though. At least I can't imagine it being Iowa again next time around.

[SciFiFisher]

I think it's preposterous that the media - and therefore, the internet at large - is proclaiming Sanders to be the front-runner like he's about got it wrapped up. We've had Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada so far. Three states whose populations are hardly a blip in the electoral roadmap.

It's preposterous because we do this to ourselves. And by we, I mean the two major parties. I've railed against Iowa and NH going first for a long time but what about this idea: hold all state primaries on the same day. No reason we can't. Sure, the candidates would have to adjust their campaign strategies but that would only mean they'd have to look like general election campaigns.

Yes. He has 43 delegates. Out of over 1900 that he needs to win the nomination. Not exactly a huge percentage of what he needs. But, it's like any horse race. The announcer has to sound excited about the horse in front even if the race hasn't really gotten started.

[Sigma_Orionis]

I have only two things to say regarding your Democratic primary season.

A) Senator Sanders just lost Florida.

B) The worst possible outcome of the Democratic Primaries is a Brokered Convention. And, if Five-ThirtyEight is right, the odds are way too high for my taste.

[SciFiFisher]

Interesting what a few days can do. Biden resoundingly won South Carolina which puts him and Sanders head to head. At the moment Vox is reporting that Sanders has 60 delegates and Biden 53.

Mayor Pete and Tom Steyer have officially dropped out of the race.

One article I read reported that California is polling in favor of Sanders which would give him a big boost. But, with only 155 delegates counted it's a little early to count out Biden. And of course, Bloomberg finally shows up on the ballots this week for Super Tuesday. It will be interesting to see how many delegates he siphons off from Biden. Because I am pretty sure he is not pulling from Sanders supporters.

And word is out that Biden plans to go to a brokered convention if Sanders or anyone else gets a majority but not the 1991 delegates they need to clinch the nomination.

I was leaning towards Warren but I suspect that the only way I am going to see her win the nomination is if Biden and Sanders drop out for some freak reason.

[Rommie]

My cap is tipped to Pete for realizing the thing to do was to bow out. Of course, it's easy to be magnanimous when you would still be the youngest candidate if 20 years older, and I'm sure he got offered something really nice in return, but no one would be successful in politics if they didn't play the game a bit!

I got a great text from my sister though, saying she felt sorry for the Pete canvasser who showed up at her door mere hours before he dropped out. She also went to see Bernie talk on Saturday and said he was basically the same as on TV, so guess they had a pretty political weekend.

We have early voting in MA but I'm waiting for tomorrow- I haven't voted in person in years and want a sticker, dang it! And yeah, it's gonna be Warren. I think ultimately in a primary "strategic voting" defeats the purpose, and while I don't think she has great chances she definitely won't if no one votes for her.

Also, weird text this weekend from my Hungarian sister in law who was visiting my folks this weekend along with my brother. Apparently she says my dad was surprised to hear that my sister and I support Warren and that we're not happy with how politics are going lately. I'm of the opinion that it's not like my dad asked, and I'm not about to raise the topic on my own knowing how it was going to go (haven't talked Trump with them since the impeachment began).

[SciFiFisher]

And Klobuchar has officially dropped out. Her and Mayor Pete (because I am too lazy to spell his last name) are endorsing Biden.

[pumpkinpi]

I voted.

[Rommie]

Me too! I was pretty excited about getting a sticker. I didn't get one in my absentee ballots, and missed getting a sticker.

[pumpkinpi]

A friend on facebook who is a former member here made a reference to Biden having dementia. I'm not quite sure if they were joking or not. In any case, is there any credible evidence that he does? I was going to ask this person, first on their wall, then in a message, but I didn't want it to seem I was calling them out.

[SciFiFisher]

A friend on facebook who is a former member here made a reference to Biden having dementia. I'm not quite sure if they were joking or not. In any case, is there any credible evidence that he does? I was going to ask this person, first on their wall, then in a message, but I didn't want it to seem I was calling them out.

One of the things that is probably related to is that Biden has a stutter which causes him to trip up a little. Couple that with his tendency to make remarks that are unique and you get people wondering if he is playing with all 52 cards. It's also one of the rumors being spread by Trump, his son, and Trump supporters. So, IMO if it is anything endorsed by Trump it's FAKE NEWS!

Here is a good article about the stutter Are Joe Biden's gaffes related to a lifelong stuttering Problem?

[pumpkinpi]

A friend on facebook who is a former member here made a reference to Biden having dementia. I'm not quite sure if they were joking or not. In any case, is there any credible evidence that he does? I was going to ask this person, first on their wall, then in a message, but I didn't want it to seem I was calling them out.

One of the things that is probably related to is that Biden has a stutter which causes him to trip up a little. Couple that with his tendency to make remarks that are unique and you get people wondering if he is playing with all 52 cards. It's also one of the rumors being spread by Trump, his son, and Trump supporters. So, IMO if it is anything endorsed by Trump it's FAKE NEWS!

Here is a good article about the stutter Are Joe Biden's gaffes related to a lifelong stuttering Problem?

Thanks, I posted a similar article about the stutter earlier in the thread. Ugh. I hate to see people posting things that support their bias instead of looking for the truth.

[SciFiFisher]

The results are mostly in from Super Tuesday. Joe Biden is definitely in the race and has pulled out in front of Bernie. Bernie looks like he is going to take California. It will be a few days before all the votes are in but it looks like the majority of the delegates in CA will go to Bernie. The bad news about that is it will keep Bernie in the race. And when Biden wins the nomination I suspect we will be treated to the tantrums, the conspiracy theories, and the bitterness of all the Bernie Bros. On an interesting note I have seen a few people who say they supported Bernie in 2016 but have realized that he is not the politician they thought he was. I suspect they realize that Bernie may not be able to get his bigger ideas past the Democrats if they hold the House and the Senate let alone a divided Congress if the Republicans hold on to the Senate.

Another factor that no one is really mentioning much is that if Biden wins the nomination he will be able to boost a lot of Democrats in a lot of races. Bernie seems to be only able to boost Bernie. And IMO Bernie is NOT a team player. He proved that in 2016 when he refused to concede defeat gracefully. Not to mention the attacks he made on Clinton that were extremely similar to those that the Trump campaign made. And when he was confronted about it his response was "She started it". My 10 year old uses similar logic. It's fine for him. But, I want better behavior and logic from my presidential candidates.

On the theme of history repeating itself this is playing out similar to how 2016 did. Sanders looked like he was going to be the front runner in a few early polls and primaries. Clinton then pulled out in front and cinched the nomination. Bernie pouted and his supporters screamed about rigged primaries. Fast forward to 2020 and you have a similar scenario playing out between Biden and Sanders and Trump is tweeting about the Democratic primaries being rigged and etc.

[Rommie]

I found Bloomberg's American Samoa win hilarious. Some TV talking head said he actually hired seven staffers there, which has basically never happened before, and all of like 200 people voted so I'm sure they just felt flattered. What an incredible vanity project.

I think the results of the last few days really show that the current order of states is so screwed up. Bernie winning New Hampshire when he's a senator from next door should not be a big deal as it came out to be. And I think it's pretty telling that he clearly had a great opportunity to gather people and prove he could build a coalition, which was the same problem four years ago... and then the same problems resurfaced, with inability to get turnout from his key demographics (young people), and the solution was to imply moderates are terrible and outright state you support some things in the Cuban revolution. I think you're right Fisher in saying he is really not a team player, and doesn't seem able to see that what's acceptable for a maverick senator in Vermont will not play equally well in all parts of the country. And while I don't see him dropping out now by any means, I do hope some sliver of reason gets through to the guy if we are going to have a brokered convention.

I also think it's funny that anyone gives a crap what Trump thinks about how Sanders does, because why do you take any advice from the enemy? But somehow people keep mentioning it! Weird.

So, Biden. I will say, I think some genius political maneuvering happened these last few days to get all the moderates out and ride his momentum from SC. I will also say that I think the guy has serious problems going forward too, less on paper but because I worry he doesn't have enough going for him beyond "I'm not Trump, and I'm not Sanders." Turnout is going to be so important and I worry people won't be convinced to vote for him as much as they will not for Trump.

Finally, my apologies to the old men, but it is depressing that after so many bright, young, motivated people in the race we have whittled down the entire pool to like three old guys yelling at each other.

[SciFiFisher]

On a very interesting note Bloomberg has dropped out. The central theme I heard last night and today seemed to be that most voters scoffed at the idea that Bloomberg thought he could spend his way into winning the nomination without actually doing the state by state tours. He did endorse Biden. In a way it's a good thing because now the moderates have only one "moderate" choice. Although I considered Warren a more moderate choice the consensus of the political pundits seemed to be that she was actually pulling more from the Sanders side of things than the Biden.

Warren may be considering dropping out according to one article I read.

Interesting note from NPR this morning. They were interviewing a political guy who said that the media always plays up the brokered convention thing but the last time the Democratic Party actually had one of those was 1952. The sentiment seemed to be that in the next 30-60 days Biden would be so far ahead of Sanders that Sanders would have to concede defeat. Of course, these are probably the same people who were saying that Biden's campaign was dead last week.

[SciFiFisher]

A friend on facebook who is a former member here made a reference to Biden having dementia. I'm not quite sure if they were joking or not. In any case, is there any credible evidence that he does? I was going to ask this person, first on their wall, then in a message, but I didn't want it to seem I was calling them out.

I believe I know who are speaking of. Sadly, she seems to give the dementia thing some credence. But, as I said on her FB post. Dementia can be managed. Look at Saint Ronnie.

[Thumper]

But, as I said on her FB post. Dementia can be managed. Look at Saint Ronnie.

Ha ha ha ha ha aaaaah.
Maybe that's not funny...

[geonuc]

With Warren dropping out, I guess I'm going to have to choose between Biden and Sanders by the time the Oregon primary comes around. If a makes a difference by then. Oregon has a late primary.

[Rommie]

Happened to hear that Warren was giving her concession speech in front of her house from another astronomer, so a few of us walked a few blocks over during our lunch break. Fun to see the hullabaloo, and then she stepped out with her husband and dog, Bailey, and all the neighbors cheered. (And then she gave a concession speech which I couldn't hear as it wasn't amplified- I guess bc it wasn't a campaign- but I did make out that she said she thought sexism played a role.) Then she drove off to... somewhere. I guess she wasn't in the mood for the selfie line, which hey fair enough.

Anyway, definitely interesting to have someone in your neighborhood who ran for president, even if it didn't work out (plus hey our senator still). As crazy context, she still lives in the house she bought as a professor because ten years ago she was "just" an academic, so I guess you really don't know where life takes you.

Oh well. Time for a bunch of old guys to yell at each other.

[SciFiFisher]

It still baffles me that so many people will say they love Warren or Clinton but they won't vote for them because "a woman can't be elected to the white house". Or that a woman can't beat Trump. But, a woman did beat Trump if you look at the popular vote. Le sigh.

[Rommie]

They actually say the quiet part out loud?!

[lady_*nix]

One of my acquaintances showed me this and... yeah, it's kind of painfully on the nose I think:

https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/vot ... ck-in-2024

[SciFiFisher]

One of my acquaintances showed me this and... yeah, it's kind of painfully on the nose I think:

https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/vot ... ck-in-2024

I found it rather humorous.

[SciFiFisher]

Am I the only one who is slightly surprised that Gabbard has not officially bowed out of the race? Apparently she is still making bank on running for the nomination. I suppose that technically this means there is still a female candidate in the race. Not that there is a single chance in hell that she is going to do anything except maybe create a few headlines and spend money.

[geonuc]

I think Gabbard is playing a different game than the rest did.