Coronavirus

[SciFiFisher]

One of my former co workers got the virus. He was quarantining at home and then had a heart attack. If he'd been out on the road alone where he usually works, he'd have probably died. Since he was home and his wife was taking care of him, she recognized all the symptoms and got him to the hospital. He's back home and recovering comfortably.

That is good news. I hope they consider that by catching CV-19 it was a bit of bad-good fortune.

A co-worker and I were talking this week and she was telling me her kiddo had strep throat and we were all excited and happy because "it was only strep throat".

[SciFiFisher]

Yesterday (or maybe the day before) The Trump Shit Show broadcast nightly from the White House was bragging about how the U.S. has tested 2 million people and that we had tested more than anyone else. Not true. And of course, what the Orange Shit Gibbon hopes you are too stupid to realize is that 2 million is not even one percent of the total population in the U.S.

And the experts agree that widespread nearly total testing is one of the best ways to get ahead of this virus.

Also reports are coming out that rural areas are starting to get hit by the virus. Their relative isolation was not good enough to keep them from catching and sharing the virus. Rural areas are especially vulnerable because they have an acute shortage of healthcare personnel and facilities. And they enjoy a higher per capita number of people with chronic diseases that make them more vulnerable to things like CV-19.

[pumpkinpi]

Yesterday (or maybe the day before) The Trump Shit Show broadcast nightly from the White House was bragging about how the U.S. has tested 2 million people and that we had tested more than anyone else. Not true. And of course, what the Orange Shit Gibbon hopes you are too stupid to realize is that 2 million is not even one percent of the total population in the U.S.

And the experts agree that widespread nearly total testing is one of the best ways to get ahead of this virus.

Also reports are coming out that rural areas are starting to get hit by the virus. Their relative isolation was not good enough to keep them from catching and sharing the virus. Rural areas are especially vulnerable because they have an acute shortage of healthcare personnel and facilities. And they enjoy a higher per capita number of people with chronic diseases that make them more vulnerable to things like CV-19.

There's a couple statistics I can't quite reconcile. As I was watching the confirmed case numbers rise in MN, (when in the hundreds) I was wondering what the true number is, because so many aren't getting tested. So if there are 100 positive tests, might there be 1,000 actual cases?

But then MN reported that about 4% of the tests are positive. Why so many? Do some people have symptoms that could be the virus (like the strep above) but aren't? Or maybe they are testing health care workers or others at high risk of catching it, even if they aren't showing symptoms.

But in NY, 40% of tests are positive. Why so different? I'm sure it's because every state determines how they do their testing differently, but still, that's an order of magnitude difference.

source: https://www.startribune.com/coronavirus ... 568712601/

Basically, I get frustrated when the entire picture can't be painted with the numbers that are reported.

[pumpkinpi]

One of my former co workers got the virus. He was quarantining at home and then had a heart attack. If he'd been out on the road alone where he usually works, he'd have probably died. Since he was home and his wife was taking care of him, she recognized all the symptoms and got him to the hospital. He's back home and recovering comfortably.

I'm glad he is recovering! I don't know that I know anyone with the virus yet. I do have a colleague whose ex father in law, in Dublin, died of it. So sad.

[geonuc]

Yesterday (or maybe the day before) The Trump Shit Show broadcast nightly from the White House was bragging about how the U.S. has tested 2 million people and that we had tested more than anyone else. Not true. And of course, what the Orange Shit Gibbon hopes you are too stupid to realize is that 2 million is not even one percent of the total population in the U.S.

And the experts agree that widespread nearly total testing is one of the best ways to get ahead of this virus.

Also reports are coming out that rural areas are starting to get hit by the virus. Their relative isolation was not good enough to keep them from catching and sharing the virus. Rural areas are especially vulnerable because they have an acute shortage of healthcare personnel and facilities. And they enjoy a higher per capita number of people with chronic diseases that make them more vulnerable to things like CV-19.

There's a couple statistics I can't quite reconcile. As I was watching the confirmed case numbers rise in MN, (when in the hundreds) I was wondering what the true number is, because so many aren't getting tested. So if there are 100 positive tests, might there be 1,000 actual cases?

But then MN reported that about 4% of the tests are positive. Why so many? Do some people have symptoms that could be the virus (like the strep above) but aren't? Or maybe they are testing health care workers or others at high risk of catching it, even if they aren't showing symptoms.

But in NY, 40% of tests are positive. Why so different? I'm sure it's because every state determines how they do their testing differently, but still, that's an order of magnitude difference.

source: https://www.startribune.com/coronavirus ... 568712601/

Basically, I get frustrated when the entire picture can't be painted with the numbers that are reported.

My thoughts:

I use a factor of hundred as a rough estimate of tested positive to actual positive in Bend. So, with 50 cases identified, I reckon there are 5000 people who have it. With about 100K population, that's 5% which is probably high but conservative.

As for the testing numbers, most locales were only testing people who had symptoms or were in contact with positive people. That would skew the results significantly above the general population. NY may have a much higher percentage of people who have the virus because NYC is so crammed with people.

[Swift]

One of my former co workers got the virus. He was quarantining at home and then had a heart attack. If he'd been out on the road alone where he usually works, he'd have probably died. Since he was home and his wife was taking care of him, she recognized all the symptoms and got him to the hospital. He's back home and recovering comfortably.

Wow, talk about a silver lining.

[Swift]

As for the testing numbers, most locales were only testing people who had symptoms or were in contact with positive people. That would skew the results significantly above the general population. NY may have a much higher percentage of people who have the virus because NYC is so crammed with people.

That's what Ohio has been doing, and pretty much have to have a cough AND fever.

[SciFiFisher]

My thoughts:

I use a factor of hundred as a rough estimate of tested positive to actual positive in Bend. So, with 50 cases identified, I reckon there are 5000 people who have it. With about 100K population, that's 5% which is probably high but conservative.

As for the testing numbers, most locales were only testing people who had symptoms or were in contact with positive people. That would skew the results significantly above the general population. NY may have a much higher percentage of people who have the virus because NYC is so crammed with people.

That's probably a really good way to calculate it. Right now the experts seem to be predicting that between 20-60% of the global population will catch CV-19, 80% of those will pretty much have a bad cold at worse and hardly notice it at best.

At least one U.S. health official has suggested that about 33% of the U.S. will catch it.

For people who are really into the numbers and trying to use data to wrap their brains around this the testing numbers are probably going to drive you bonkers. One reason is that because we were so slow to jump on the testing bandwagon it's too late to really get any decent sense of who currently has it or doesn't have it via testing. They are developing an antibody test that may work pretty reliably to tell us who has been exposed and who has developed some immunity.

I have heard that there are a couple of research groups who are already talking about starting human trials for a vaccine in less than 30 days if they can get FDA approval. Early promising results don't always yield the results you want but I am optimistically hopeful. If they really can get something that works and start producing it and vaccinating people before the end of the year it will significantly alter the course of this pandemic.

[geonuc]

I'm keeping a running Excel chart of Oregon cases, and one for the county. I get a daily email from the Oregon Heath Authority and from the Central Oregon folks (the population of which is mostly the city of Bend). Right now, both data sets show a per week increase of about 1.5. In other words, today's total case number is 1.5 times what it was one week ago. Oregon was hovering around 3.5 two weeks ago, the county at around 2.5. So things are slowing, especially since I believe the pace of testing has increased in that period.

[Rommie]

I've always assumed 10x more people have it than are getting tested per those numbers, because if so many people can be asymptomatic it seems a no brainer.

So, a topic of increasing discussion in our house. I don't know if I told you all, but even though we got legally married last fall we were still planning a wedding celebration this coming summer to exchange rings and be present with friends and family in Boston who couldn't make the legal one, on July 18. (F's family already bought tickets from Europe well before this mess all started, because the Dutch seriously love to plan ahead.) We sent out save the dates in December, but haven't even ordered wedding invites yet, because obvious reasons... but I'm pretty sure we are going to have to send those out.

Now, it was always definitely going to be <80 people, and probably <50 if we were to go ahead now assuming we can. But, the European government has already advised everyone to not plan for summer holidays this year, and ultimately the worry is if gatherings of that size will be allowed at all, and if non-US citizens will be allowed in the country by mid-July. And, of course, everyone keeps asking us for updates, as if we know anything more than they do.

So, we are saying for now that we are going to decide around the end of the month- I don't know if we will know anything more by end of the month, mind, but I think you need to give people two months notice either way. And obviously it would suck if we decide to delay it and everything's fine by mid-July, though obviously the way things are going it's unlikely to be as optimistic versus less. (It should be noted that all the vendors are totally understanding and are allowing delays with no extra charge.) And the third thing would be how much to delay it, if we do- is autumn too early? Might be better to just wait until next summer, to avoid the risk of moving it twice, plus then F's family with kids can attend as it won't be during school season (the original intention behind our date), and several of my friends are expecting this fall and wouldn't be able to make it. Obviously a year's delay would suck for its own reasons though.

Anyway, if someone has an angle I haven't considered or thoughts on this, let me know. It's obviously getting increasingly stressful to contemplate.

[SciFiFisher]

The only thing positive I can think of is that travel-related costs are going to be less for the rest of the year. I just re-arranged some tickets we had for New York in August and the difference in cost was almost 50% less. So, if you do move it to fall it will cost less.

[geonuc]

I have friends in a similar situation. They have a big wedding planned in Atlanta with all the fixin's. Late May. They still haven't postponed. I was going to drive out but that's extremely unlikely at this point even if it isn't delayed.

[Rommie]

Yeah, we were chatting to the best man and his wife a bit yesterday in New Zealand, and they said it was highly unlikely they would be coming at this rate. New Zealand has made international flights all but obsolete right now in their effort to quash the virus, and it sounds like they want to keep strict isolation from the rest of the world in effect for the foreseeable future when they open the country up for those who live there (and frankly, NZ is probably the best situated to do this out of anywhere). Plus I mean yeah, no one's going to want to fly 24 hours in coming months unless their mother is dying.

So we'll probably give it a few more weeks but pretty obvious which way the call is heading. It obviously sucks, but there's that line about how the problems of two people don't amount to a hill of beans in this crazy world coming to my mind.

I will say though it will take me more than a few weeks to get used to transitioning from "big visit from in laws and wedding" to having no commitments this summer!

[pumpkinpi]

Yeah, we were chatting to the best man and his wife a bit yesterday in New Zealand, and they said it was highly unlikely they would be coming at this rate. New Zealand has made international flights all but obsolete right now in their effort to quash the virus, and it sounds like they want to keep strict isolation from the rest of the world in effect for the foreseeable future when they open the country up for those who live there (and frankly, NZ is probably the best situated to do this out of anywhere). Plus I mean yeah, no one's going to want to fly 24 hours in coming months unless their mother is dying.

So, what's it going to take for NZ to open up again? When they do, people will inevitably be bringing the virus, and their whole population will be susceptible. Are they going to require proof of immunity from everyone entering the country, including citizens returning? Or will they just wait for the vaccine?

[SciFiFisher]

Yeah, we were chatting to the best man and his wife a bit yesterday in New Zealand, and they said it was highly unlikely they would be coming at this rate. New Zealand has made international flights all but obsolete right now in their effort to quash the virus, and it sounds like they want to keep strict isolation from the rest of the world in effect for the foreseeable future when they open the country up for those who live there (and frankly, NZ is probably the best situated to do this out of anywhere). Plus I mean yeah, no one's going to want to fly 24 hours in coming months unless their mother is dying.

So, what's it going to take for NZ to open up again? When they do, people will inevitably be bringing the virus, and their whole population will be susceptible. Are they going to require proof of immunity from everyone entering the country, including citizens returning? Or will they just wait for the vaccine?

Probably a combination of judicious testing, quarantining and waiting for the vaccine.

[Rommie]

Yeah, we were chatting to the best man and his wife a bit yesterday in New Zealand, and they said it was highly unlikely they would be coming at this rate. New Zealand has made international flights all but obsolete right now in their effort to quash the virus, and it sounds like they want to keep strict isolation from the rest of the world in effect for the foreseeable future when they open the country up for those who live there (and frankly, NZ is probably the best situated to do this out of anywhere). Plus I mean yeah, no one's going to want to fly 24 hours in coming months unless their mother is dying.

So, what's it going to take for NZ to open up again? When they do, people will inevitably be bringing the virus, and their whole population will be susceptible. Are they going to require proof of immunity from everyone entering the country, including citizens returning? Or will they just wait for the vaccine?

Probably a combination of judicious testing, quarantining and waiting for the vaccine.

Indeed. I read an article about how right now if you fly back to China what the procedure entails, and in short it involves going to a mandatory quarantine area upon arrival for testing/ temp check, then you either need to go into quarantine in your house or pay for quarantine in a hotel. But strict quarantine, mind- the city council comes and puts electronic tape on your door and comes each day for two weeks to bring your food and check your temperature.

I mean, no idea if NZ will be that strict, but I'm sure a two week mandatory quarantine of some sort will happen. It will suck for a country super dependent on tourism, but at least right now they're going into low season per my friends, and the hope is they'll be out and about to engage in domestic tourism if they can nip the virus in the bud.

[SciFiFisher]

My Coronavirus thought for the day:

Getting ready for work today. I am essential personnel so I have still have to show up and do my job in an office. Doing my job on the telephone and the computer. Which could be done equally well from home.
So, as I am standing there looking at my closet and choosing a shirt I realize that the first shirt is exactly the same shade of red as the ones on Star Trek. And it dawns on me. I should wear the red shirt. Because being essential personnel is sort of like going on an away mission on Star Trek. With Cpt Kirk. And no one has ever seen this actor before on the show. In a red shirt...

[Swift]

Right now the experts seem to be predicting that between 20-60% of the global population will catch CV-19, 80% of those will pretty much have a bad cold at worse and hardly notice it at best.

That's why, sniffling away with my seasonal allergies for weeks, I've wondered if maybe I've already had it. I recall one night that I almost felt like I was having hot flashes, but that came and went. My wife too has had some days where she felt like she was getting a cold. But neither of us had done any worse than that.

On the flip side, with my history of sinus and respiratory problems, and she with her suppressed immune system, I figured if either of us got it, we would get it bad.

I'd love to take the antibody test.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Well, hope you don't have it.

[geonuc]

An article in The Atlantic suggests the possibility of creating an 'immunity passport' but then discusses the reasons why that might be a bad idea. It's a good read.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... OW8nZJnx3M

[geonuc]

That's why, sniffling away with my seasonal allergies for weeks, I've wondered if maybe I've already had it. I recall one night that I almost felt like I was having hot flashes, but that came and went. My wife too has had some days where she felt like she was getting a cold. But neither of us had done any worse than that.

On the flip side, with my history of sinus and respiratory problems, and she with her suppressed immune system, I figured if either of us got it, we would get it bad.

I'd love to take the antibody test.

My wife asked me yesterday what I thought my chances would be if I contracted CV-19 before any effective treatments are developed. I have no good idea of course but I said "50-50". A lot of older patients develop pneumonia and that would pretty much be it for me.

[pumpkinpi]

One of my coworkers had it. We met online last Thursday afternoon, then again yesterday afternoon. If he hadn't told me, I wouldn't have known by how he was acting! He said he did have a day or two where he felt like he was on the brink of death--that's kind of scary, but I think he was joking a bit. He doesn't know where he got it. He's not been going out for weeks. His wife works in schools and had been going in, but it's still a couple weeks that she's been home. So he suspects he got it from her, and she was asymptomatic.

His case isn't confirmed. He called his clinic and they said yep, you probably have it, but don't come in and you're not eligible for testing. I wonder if clinics are keeping track of these diagnosed but not confirmed cases.

[Rommie]

OMG you guys, today on the weekly grocery shop we got a bottle of hand sanitizer! Apparently they got a shipment today, and we got the last one. I feel so rich in the new economy.

Also, stopped at a local cafe doing takeout for a cappuccino. I haven't had one in about a month. After thinking about how many I consume in a month and now don't, no wonder I'm losing weight unlike everyone else.

[pumpkinpi]

OMG you guys, today on the weekly grocery shop we got a bottle of hand sanitizer! Apparently they got a shipment today, and we got the last one. I feel so rich in the new economy.

Also, stopped at a local cafe doing takeout for a cappuccino. I haven't had one in about a month. After thinking about how many I consume in a month and now don't, no wonder I'm losing weight unlike everyone else.

I thought maybe I'd lose weight due to the decrease in french fries. Normally I'd have them about twice a week, but we've only done takeout from a properly equipped restaurant twice.

But no luck. Maybe because I've increased my wine intake to compensate.

[Rommie]

OMG you guys, today on the weekly grocery shop we got a bottle of hand sanitizer! Apparently they got a shipment today, and we got the last one. I feel so rich in the new economy.

Also, stopped at a local cafe doing takeout for a cappuccino. I haven't had one in about a month. After thinking about how many I consume in a month and now don't, no wonder I'm losing weight unlike everyone else.

I thought maybe I'd lose weight due to the decrease in french fries. Normally I'd have them about twice a week, but we've only done takeout from a properly equipped restaurant twice.

But no luck. Maybe because I've increased my wine intake to compensate.

Hah! I'm about 5 lbs lighter, so losing about 1 a week. There was a lot of beer not being drunk now that we can't go out either, because honestly I'm a social drinker. So while I won't grab a beer out of the fridge and we do a bottle of wine on weekends, yeah I really should stop drinking beer pints IRL.