Coronavirus

[Sigma_Orionis]

It's funny how we have ruled that public safety outweighs personal liberty for everything from wearing seat belts to saying the word "fire" in a public theatre but suddenly the government can't tell us to wear a mask? And trust me, I disagree with some of the public safety stuff such as a wearing a helmet for riding a motorcycle. But, no one decides to not wear a helmet and then run into a wall to prove the government can't tell them what to do. I have a lot of other examples that come to mind.

Maybe we have always had a significant level of ignorance in the population but the speed at which information travels just makes us more aware of them. And it allows them to propagate their ignorance at a very rapid rate also.

And THIS TIME it has deadly consequences not only for the idiots. But for all us.

[code monkey]

Estimates of how many people died in the US because of the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic vary from 500,000 to 850,000 from 1918 to 1920. So, you were being quite conservative Rommie. Of course, as you said. that's pretty cold comfort for the relatives of the 150.000 people who have died in the US so far. There are a lot more practical considerations though. This Pandemic came into force in March. As of this morning, you've lost 156,000 people so far. An estimate by the University of Pennsylvania claims that the pandemic could last until November 2021.. The same person who made that estimate said that he expects that the US will have about 250,000 deaths attributable to COVID-19 by the end of the year You are already 3/5ths of the way there. This Pandemic can be potentially as bad as the Spanish Flu epidemic or worse. And that epidemic is considered to be one of the worst in recorded history. And this happened under much better conditions than in 1918. The position that "at least it isn't as bad as the Spanish Flu" goes well beyond ridiculous.

1. I believe that's known as grasping at straws. and yet another example of auster's last guy principle. (just in case you've forgotten this states that one doesn't have to be worse off than everyone to be having serious difficulties.)
2. the numbers really should be expressed as %ages of total population.

[code monkey]

@cm

It's even worse than that. Exceptionally long and realistic nightmares are common for people in comas, especially sedation induced comas.

e.g. https://kotaku.com/the-dreams-of-a-man- ... 1833572960

thanks for the citation. I stand (or sit) corrected -

if you don't like wearing a mask then you're going to loathe a ventilator

[lady_*nix]

@cm

An addendum, not correction. You were right.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Estimates of how many people died in the US because of the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic vary from 500,000 to 850,000 from 1918 to 1920. So, you were being quite conservative Rommie. Of course, as you said. that's pretty cold comfort for the relatives of the 150.000 people who have died in the US so far. There are a lot more practical considerations though. This Pandemic came into force in March. As of this morning, you've lost 156,000 people so far. An estimate by the University of Pennsylvania claims that the pandemic could last until November 2021.. The same person who made that estimate said that he expects that the US will have about 250,000 deaths attributable to COVID-19 by the end of the year You are already 3/5ths of the way there. This Pandemic can be potentially as bad as the Spanish Flu epidemic or worse. And that epidemic is considered to be one of the worst in recorded history. And this happened under much better conditions than in 1918. The position that "at least it isn't as bad as the Spanish Flu" goes well beyond ridiculous.

1. I believe that's known as grasping at straws. and yet another example of auster's last guy principle. (just in case you've forgotten this states that one doesn't have to be worse off than everyone to be having serious difficulties.)
2. the numbers really should be expressed as %ages of total population.

1) I'd say you're correct.

2) I'm pretty sure, you are much abler than me dealing with those kinds of numbers. So I won't even attempt to discuss it. I stand corrected.

[SciFiFisher]

1) I'd say you're correct.

2) I'm pretty sure, you are much abler than me dealing with those kinds of numbers. So I won't even attempt to discuss it. I stand corrected.

Don't lie. You aren't standing.

[Sigma_Orionis]

1) I'd say you're correct.

2) I'm pretty sure, you are much abler than me dealing with those kinds of numbers. So I won't even attempt to discuss it. I stand corrected.

Don't lie. You aren't standing.

MOM! he's picking on me!

[pumpkinpi]

MN's Governor announced guidelines for school instruction this fall. It's based on data! It lets districts make their own decisions based on local conditions! Yippie!

So, you look at the case count in your county per 10,000 residents in the past 14 days, and find which one of the FIVE options matches your lucky number!

0-9 All in person
10-19 Elementary students in person, secondary students hybrid
20-29 all hybrid
30-49 Elementary students hybrid, secondary students online
50+ all students online.

Plus, districts MUST offer fully online options for families that choose to keep their students home.

Sooo many questions....

The school year is still 5 weeks away, but the decision is based on the past 14 days of data. Should districts wait for the latest possible data release to make their decision, or base it on today? (We'd be option 3, all hybrid)
Should they be reassessing every week? What's the threshold, one case over? two? three? What if it comes back down within the next two weeks?

What's elementary vs. secondary? My kids' school goes through 8th grade. So if they fall in one of the grey areas, do they have different models for the different grades?

Minneapolis schools had already decided to go fully online before the Governor's news conference. They recognized what a mess the hybrid system would be. St. Paul announced the same just after the conference. My kids are in neither district, but we border both cities and are in the same county as St. Paul.

Last months districts were told to prepare for three options: in person, hybrid, and online. Now add in the additional two options, and the need to constantly reassess, and imagine what a headache it is for administrators right now.

It's my understanding that nothing is mandated, but I don't really think offering these guidlines made at any easier for planning.

So, we wait for an announcement from the schools.....To be honest, I hope they choose the online only model. MrPi and I are both going to be working from home--him 100%, me at least 50%. So we can handle it. And I'd much rather have them fully at home to start and potentially go back in person, then to have them start out in person and eventually be sent back home. And hybrid--no thanks.

edit: we're actually in the 2nd category, so elementary students would be in-person full time.

School update: Originally my district announced that all students would be in hybrid mode, going in 2 days each week. But this week the administrators presented a plan to the school board to switch to full time distance learning, and reevaluate the situation each month. The board adopted it. So my kids will start the year full time at home.

I think it's a good choice. Our county's case rate per 10,000 has been going up steadily since it started being reported in June. I don't think they should go back to school until it starts going down.

So, today is the last day we are kid-free for a long time. It's their last day of their summer school care. I am so grateful that we've had the opportunity (and the $3000) to send them in somewhere safe so that we can be a little more productive at work. That all changes now.

[Rommie]

We just got back from our pandemic vacation! Went down to Virginia to see my sister, and see my niece and meet my new nephew. They just moved to a new house in June, and the kids are cute as buttons, so all told it was pretty awesome to see everyone and I know my sister sure appreciated the help. (Niece is three, so pretty convenient by that age that she can tell me the naptime routine and where all the clothes are for getting dressed etc.) Plus new house is in the suburbs so easy to socially distance from everyone but still have fun with them. Not like we're going on crazy adventures with a two month old anyway.

F and I did take an afternoon naptime to drive into Washington DC though because we realized we wanted to see BLM plaza. And wow guys, pandemic DC is so EMPTY. Hardly any tourists compared to a regular summer, and no office workers except for some folks leaving the White House (at, I noticed, 4:30pm, because obviously with so little going on why not leave early?). We got a parking spot right at the start of the plaza with no issue, and walked down it past the White House to the Mall and back in a loop. Interestingly, we noticed that of the handful of tourists we were quite out of place for being white- I'd say 90% of the people wandering around were Black, many posing for pictures and with #BLM t-shirts and stuff. The cop at the end with his car was white but just seemed mainly there to take photos of the BLM activists by now. St. John's church is fenced off, but you could walk through Lafayette Park, and there's still an extra perimeter around the White House (nominally they're "improving the fence").

Also, while we drove straight down we made a few stops on the way back, all staying in spots where you didn't really have to interact with anyone. The interesting thing is the further north we went, the more serious people took coronavirus. The only place, interestingly, that we felt uncomfortable with the crowds was a stop in Gettysburg to pick up a battlefields map at the visitor center, but even then the majority of people were masked.

Now we are holed up again at home, quarantining. Enjoyable road trip but I gotta say, I wasn't planning for Scranton, PA to be one of the highlights of my summer vacation this year.

[SciFiFisher]

On a positive note case counts are falling and so are deaths finally. The experts are saying that is because most places took a step back and started imposing more restrictions when it became obvious that re-opening the way most people did was a disaster. It's still horrible. But, it's less horrible than it was.

[Rommie]

Yeah, I don't know how it is where you guys are but around here it feels like you can do just enough of "normal life" stuff that it's almost forgettable. Stores are open, can eat outside on a nice terrace, hit up hiking trails, etc.

Then you remember you're wearing a mask everywhere.

[pumpkinpi]

Yeah, I don't know how it is where you guys are but around here it feels like you can do just enough of "normal life" stuff that it's almost forgettable. Stores are open, can eat outside on a nice terrace, hit up hiking trails, etc.

Then you remember you're wearing a mask everywhere.

Yeah, I feel overall like life is "normal," and I'm even used to the mask. But unfortunately MN's among the states that has case rates going up. So I think we're all feeling a bit too normal. I don't think most people are prepared for what's going to happen when we have to retreat to the indoors again.

[Rommie]

Yeah, I don't know how it is where you guys are but around here it feels like you can do just enough of "normal life" stuff that it's almost forgettable. Stores are open, can eat outside on a nice terrace, hit up hiking trails, etc.

Then you remember you're wearing a mask everywhere.

Yeah, I feel overall like life is "normal," and I'm even used to the mask. But unfortunately MN's among the states that has case rates going up. So I think we're all feeling a bit too normal. I don't think most people are prepared for what's going to happen when we have to retreat to the indoors again.

Yeah, I've thought about that too. This is gonna be the longest patio season in history, IMO. Who wants to eat indoors? We also kinda realized this talking to my sister when we said goodbye- normally this time of year of course you're thinking of Thanksgiving/Christmas plans for the next time we'd meet up, but of course this year all we can think of is "no one knows anything, we hope we can see you."

Personally my hope is by the time the time we really have to hibernate again (as thankfully our case numbers are still good around here) we will at least have an idea of how much longer it will all last. I feel like if you can tell me "you need to sit at home again, BUT by January the most vulnerable can start getting vaccinated" that would be a great help mentally. (Also, of course, if we knew competent people are going to move into the White House.) But on a more practical note, F and I discussed getting some snowshoes this year if the ski resorts decide to cap the number of people at very low levels so we will at least be getting out of the house more.

[lady_*nix]

IDK... I'm in one of the better off states (MA) and things still don't feel remotely normal to me. Just overwhelming premonitions of doom, getting worse every day. I feel like I'm constantly staring my imminent death in the face, if not from COVID then from political violence, or running out of money, or... IDK. It's exhausting behind what I have language to describe.

[Rommie]

I went hiking yesterday (another mile of the Appalachian Trail down as it was part of the loop!) and the standard thing around here when hiking is people put on a mask when passing if the trail is narrow, and/or stand more than 6ft apart. Not everyone grabs their mask all the time, but it's also rare you can't be 6ft apart so in the grand scheme of things to worry about this year this isn't super high on my list.

Anyway yesterday at the top of the trail to head down I ran into an older guy who immediately complained to me about how awful the trail was I was about to go down (thanks?) and he was standing in the middle of the trail so I grabbed my mask. He then began to complain- "you don't need to do that!"- but I made a point to then put it on.

Like obviously, Einstein, I know the risk is low when passing on a hiking trail compared to other situations, like singing in a crowded choir or hanging out at the University of Alabama dorms. But it's not zero, and even if all that didn't matter, who the heck are you to tell a stranger in the forest what she should and should not wear as if it's any of your business?

I think that's what annoys the hell out of me for anti-mask people. If it really was about personal choice, why would my personal choice to wear one annoy you enough to comment about it?

[Thumper]

Just say, "I wear a mask to protect you, and that's my choice. You're welcome."

[code monkey]

fommie, I wonder if your fellow hiker thought that the fact that you were putting on a mask meant that you thought that he was infected and he wanted to reassure that he wasn't (something that he couldn't know) or was insulted at the thought. just another attempt at reading the mind of someone I don't know. in any event, not a total moron; just a bit of a jerk.

[Rommie]

Definitely a jerk vibe. Pity one can't get away without running into them sometimes huh.

So, good news on my end, finally got permission to return to the office! Will be going in 4 days a week, starting Sept 14 (Harvard requires I take a test first, and we have to move back down). My joke is I never expected I'd be so excited to go and sit in a room by myself and only say hi to colleagues in a really distanced fashion, but damn guys, I had (have?) a super nice office. Everyone thought it was a huge space for just two postdocs, and then my office mate is in California for the duration living his best life, and I know the few other colleagues who will be around take things as seriously as I do/ the undergrads can't access our building. Definitely the time to try it out, I think.

On a final note, my mom was wanting to invite my aunt and uncle over sometime this weekend for a distanced lunch outside, but they had to decline. One of their grandsons was at a hockey practice (?! covid aside, hockey in August?) and one of the teammates tested positive... but they didn't know about it until after taking the grandkids camping a few days ago. So I'm mainly feeling sorry for the anxiety I know my aunt and uncle have right now- they have definitely been very cautious, except where their grandkids are involved.

[pumpkinpi]

I bet they are anxious!

This whole thing is crazy. Like, if I come down with any covid symptoms, or have been around anyone who has had a positive test, I have to stay home. Our work does not require us to take a test. They tell us to go home and don't come back until you are symptom free for 14 days, or consult with your health care provider to be allowed to come back before then. Even if I come down with a cold. I can't come back for 14 days unless I have proof from a doctor that I don't have covid. Some providers won't test you based on cold symptoms alone. And if you do get tested, it could be a week or more before you actually get the test and get the results. It's going to be a wacky fall and winter. We've already had a handful of colleagues who have needed to quarantine due to a cold! For a lot of work places, that's not a big deal. But our museum is open, and most of us have 1-2 shifts per week. So if we have to stay home, that means someone else has to cover for us. There are not a lot of us who can cover shits. (Under normal circumstances we are mostly staffed by university students, but right now that work pool is bare-bones.)

[Rommie]

Yeah, of course I got a loooooong list of rules for going in, and one of them is we have to fill out a little form saying if we have any symptoms that day before we can go into the office. Obviously if you have any, you have to stay home. However, Harvard itself has access to a lot of testing (there have to be some perks) so I could definitely schedule one.

If you live on campus, you need to be tested weekly, but so far as I can tell I just need to be tested to go back, and then it's at the discretion of the department you're in. Seeing as mine hasn't said anything about further regular testing, I think it's probably going to come down to "if someone tests positive who had been going into work you're going to have to get tested again."

We'll see. I keep reading about how there is a coronavirus test that works on just saliva, so we could all just do a self test every day while still at home, and that'd be so awesome! Hopefully gets approved soon.

[Rommie]

Well guys I'm pleased to report I don't have coronavirus!

Basically as part of going back to work I needed to get tested in person, so I went down to the medical center to do so. In and out in 10 minutes, of which maybe half was trying to figure out the app they want you to use. Then it's also not the "brain swab" test here- you actually did it yourself while someone watched, basically move around a q-tip one inch up your nostril a few times and stick it back in a plastic bag/ put it in a test bin. I will need to keep doing this every week, mind, but it'll be self administered and I just grab it and do it myself at the office.

So yeah, pretty awesome and painless process, but I think the trick is Harvard obviously is one of very few who can afford such a thing. (If you live on campus you have to do it 2-3 times a week even.) But I've realized this also makes us feel better too, in that we are obviously taking a bit more risk coming back to the city and me going into the office, and while we are still cautious at least we'll know pretty quick over spreading it all over.

We're pretty happy to be here, because while I love my parents after a few months we appreciate our space. Plus hey, change of scenery! Yesterday was our 1st anniversary, so while this year obviously did not go as we expected (man I hope we finally have a reception before the 2nd), we had a pretty awesome day going to a sculpture garden (I miss art, so that was a great solution), and we managed to get reservations to a local restaurant that basically took over a garden for an amazing meal. (You know it's really good when before the appetizers are done your husband is already plotting when to return!) Now I've gotta get some work done, but we're planning on a bike ride down by the Charles River later.

To be clear, Boston is so screwed once the cold weather sets in and we can't do anything outdoors any more. (They're running "get your flu shot" ads on the radio like every second ad.) And we feel insanely lucky to be able to draw on so many resources, like mandatory testing of everyone at work. But for now, we're doing good.

[SciFiFisher]

There are some signs that people are figuring this out. Sadly, I think we won't really get our sheznai together in a more concerted way until after January 20th next year.

[Rommie]

Probably not.

First day at work! Coincidentally, also my boss's first day at work, and one of the grad students. We all just kinda waved at each other through the window and then knocked briefly to say hi (while masked, 20ft away), and it was kind of funny how the three of us were still all separately on the virtual Zoom group meeting. Even had to put in my headphones because boss and I share a wall and I could hear just enough feedback to make it annoying.

Biggest thing about work is it's dark in the hall because everyone works with their door closed, and you have no idea how many people are in fact here. Anecdotally, however, I can tell you the number is such that I have my own private bathroom on our floor because it appears none of the other women came back yet.

[code monkey]

I know that, even now, in some places it is difficult to impossible to get a covid test if one has no symptoms. while I would never encourage lying, I am struck by the fact that while some can be determined by another e.g.o2 sat, others cannot e.g. headache, loss of sense of taste. who is to say if another has a headache? or doesn't.

[SciFiFisher]

Yes, testing is the key to getting in front of outbreaks. And a lot of companies or schools are just not prepared or willing to do the level of testing they need to.