Ukraine

[The Supreme Canuck]

I feel this deserves its own thread.

Frankly, this situation is starting to border on the "slightly terrifying" level for me. At this point, Ukraine is fucked. A Crimean breakaway state or semi-independent partially-recognized state (like South Ossetia or Transnistria) is a given at this point. My concern, though, is that this might end up being a broader conflict. The Security Council has already been brought into things (while I recognize that it's pretty useless here given Russia's membership, it may prove a useful venue for negotiations with the Russians) and, most alarming to me, Lithuania has invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty. It reads as follows:

The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.

Which means NATO is getting involved.

At this point, it seems we're about one dead archduke away from something upsetting. Not a very broad conflict, probably, but a drawn-out, low-level Eastern European shooting war that challenges the current balance of power between the EU/West and Russia.

Not great.

[Cyborg Girl]

I should hope not.

On a related note, I must say I'm not liking Russia's current reversion towards its old gonzo nationalism. Can we please, please not start up the Cold War again? Please?

(For some reason I'm reminded of a quote from an old Greg Bear novel: "But the nations were not sane - rational, composed, aware, but not sane.")

[geonuc]

Hard to say how it's going to play out, but it sure isn't looking good at this point. Maybe if the end result is Russian Ukraine returning to Russia and no more, that's the best that can be hoped for. With Russian troops entering Crimea and elsewhere, it is obviously unlikely that Ukraine as its borders are drawn now can hope for independence.

[The Supreme Canuck]

I agree that would be the best outcome. I'm just not sure that we aren't past the point where it can end there.

If nothing else, this is absolutely not the last time Russia's going to pull a stunt like this. Hence Lithuania's concern.

[The Supreme Canuck]

Oh, also? The Russian Parliament has recommended that Putin recall the Russian ambassador from Washington.

Always a good sign...

[The Supreme Canuck]

The Canadian government has called an emergency cabinet meeting to discuss the crisis. It may seem odd, but Canada has been very bullish on this conflict - a Parliamentary delegation, including the Canadian foreign minister, has been on the ground in Ukraine for the past couple of days, now. We'll see how this develops.

Edit: Probably the reason why the Canadian government is so involved is because we have a very large Ukrainian community... especially in Alberta, where the Conservatives are based. The Tory government got into this supporting role for political reasons (as can been seen in the fact that they refused to send MPs from other parties in the Parliamentary delegation) - they want to secure votes among the Ukrainian community. Then Russia blew the whole thing up in the West's faces, and Canada is stuck in a bullish position. Concerning.

[The Supreme Canuck]

Ukrainian military forces have been put on high alert, Ukrainian prime minister states that Russian military actions would mean war:

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who was standing next to Mr Turchynov, said he was "convinced" Russia would not intervene militarily "as this would be the beginning of war and the end of all relations".

He couches it as "those Russians wouldn't do such a thing, because that would mean war," but that's not what he means.

[Rommie]

Hah, I was just on my way here to start a thread.

Been fun sitting here chatting with my mom on this, who like all Hungarians are very pragmatic about their neighbors and Russians in particular. In that "it's just like 1956- why do people think the Russians wouldn't come in if they didn't then?" kind of level of things, and a stern belief that people outside eastern Europe do not have long memories.

I'm not sure I see WW3 coming out of this like some are predicting just because I don't see the US having such a vested interest in Ukraine- they are not an EU or NATO member, for one thing. Crimea on its own was only given to Ukraine in 1954, before that it was part of Russia and most people there are Russian. Lots of fluid borders in that part of the world for hundreds of years.

Don't get me wrong, I definitely find this stuff rather concerning, but I think it's just the bigger shock to many as Europe has been its most peaceful now than it has been, well, ever. That doesn't mean all the old tensions and borders just went away.

[The Supreme Canuck]

Oh, I agree - not WW3. Just some very unpleasant business in Eastern Europe. Do expect a great deal of shoring up in Poland and the Baltic States, though - troop deployments, the works. Those are EU and NATO members. And the US has a very strong interest in ensuring that NATO isn't challenged. The worst thing would be if a NATO member invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty... and no one shows up to help. That would be the end of the alliance, and it's been a serious concern of the US government since the post-Cold War NATO expansion began in the early 90s.

The next few years are going to be... interesting, I'd wager.

Edit: I'm also concerned about where Russia goes next. Central Asia? The Arctic? Somewhere else in Europe - maybe Belarus?

Edit 2: Thinking about it, the best option might be a negotiated settlement with Russia through the UN to allow them to annex Crimea (or allow them to create an independent republic there) without further incursion into Ukraine. Immediate NATO/EU deployment of troops to Western Ukraine to ensure Russian compliance and protect Ukrainian territory, with UN observers along the new border. Follow up with diplomatic and financial assistance to Kiev to help them secure their political position. Keeps things reasonably contained, keeps people from shooting. No one wins, but no one loses.

Of course, that assumes Russia would be willing to give up influence in Western Ukraine. And there are the usual problems that come with appeasement.

[Rommie]

Ah well don't forget, my family lives two hours from the Ukrianian border (just bought my ticket to visit them over Easter, yay!). My understanding is Hungary's military is now also on high alert, of course.

I guess for me it's more just I genuinely don't see this becoming a bigger issue outside Ukraine yet (emphasis on yet). If you told me this is now going to be a Yugoslavia type situation where Ukraine is going to split up into multiple countries now based on ethnic groups, with Russia vs Europe interests in various sides, I'd definitely buy it. But as long as the Russian troops don't start marching over the borders, I don't know if I see a serious conflict involving several nations.

Btw regarding Belarus, they weren't called White Russia back in the day for nothing. Russia doesn't need to invade because they never stopped being the Russian puppet dictatorship at any point I'm aware of.

[The Supreme Canuck]

To be fair, Ukraine was essentially a Russian puppet dictatorship until a couple weeks ago, too.

But, yeah, you're right that this is probably not an Eastern Europe-wide conflict. But it is going to spread. There will be NATO troop movements and a bolstering of defences in the East. There will be repercussions for diplomatic efforts including Russia (Iranian nuclear negotiations, North Korean nuclear negotiations, Syrian negotiations... and it's looking like they're going to get the boot from the G8. And, hell, the ISS and US access to space are going to suffer from a diplomatic split, too).

So, yes, I agree - this won't be a serious military conflict involving several nations. But boy is this going to spread far beyond Ukraine in non-military ways. Ways which may lead to military crises in the future. That's my concern. And it's the concern of other nations in the region as well, I'd wager.

[The Supreme Canuck]

Looks like the US is calling for the deployment of UN or OSCE observers to Ukraine and the start of international mediation/arbitration as a way to balance Russian/Ukrainian interests.

Won't work.

[Cyborg Girl]

It suddenly occurs to me that I'm quite ignorant of the situation, the politics and personalities involved, and most of the historical context. That said, the idea of a major power using military force to expand its borders makes me very uncomfortable. It kind of harkens back to the bad old days of the early 20th century, and before.

Edit: If we have to have an invasion, can we please have one without any casualties? Please? Even if it means the Russians walking in and taking over with no protest?

[FZR1KG]

Wishful thinking GJ.
Some Russians in many respects are similar to Serbians in their nationalism.
They also tend to get into power far too often.
Think of this as the Tea party gaining control of the USA.
Most are sane but the government would be doing some pretty insane shit.

[The Supreme Canuck]

The governments of the US, France, and Canada have jointly called for a Russian withdrawal - it looks like the US is rounding up allies, with France and Canada being the first on board. Canada, at least, has recalled its ambassador to Russia and has declared it will not attend the G8 summit in Russia. The US has also stated that it will not attend the G8 summit. The UK is also taking a hard stance against Russia, but appears not to have been pulled into the group of allies the US is pulling together. Yet. For now it looks like the US, France, and Canada will be the core of that group. The leaders of all three countries are said to be in consultation on the crisis.

Great.

Edit: ...aaand I read some comments on the news articles I was reading. "Figures - Obama consults with socialists." "Ooh! Now the Russkies will be shaking." "We should care why?"

Yes. Very good, 'Murkins. Your insightful and nuanced understanding of international diplomacy is a great asset in this situation. You understand things perfectly, and aren't absolutely ignorant about everything you're saying. (Harper a socialist? Really? You clearly haven't a clue, you're just spouting ignorant stereotypes about Canada and France. Allies who have come to your aid, here. You wankers.)

Seriously... with a public like that, we're doomed.

Edit 2: Interesting statement from the Canadian prime minister:

“We will continue to cooperate closely with our G-7 partners and other allies,” the Prime Minister said. “Should President Putin continue on this course of action, it will lead to ongoing negative consequences for our bilateral relationship.”

The mention of G7 rather than G8 suggests to me that the plans to boot Russia from the group may be more than just plans at this point.

Edit 3: NATO ambassadors will be meeting tomorrow in Brussels to discuss the situation. Probably as a result of the request by Lithuania. The meeting will be followed by a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Commission.

[Cyborg Girl]

Harper a socialist? Ha, I wish.

If it's any consolation, TSC, I think most Americans are embarassed to be living in the same country as those commenters.

[The Supreme Canuck]

Socialist? You and me both, bud.

And, yeah, I know those guys are idiots. That's why I refer to them as 'Murkins rather than as Americans.

[The Supreme Canuck]

The US, France, and Canada have agreed to jointly provide the Kiev government with a financial aid package. Read that as "money for guns."

Ukrainian armed forces are expected to be fully mobilized and prepared for military actions at 08:00 local time.

The British Foreign Secretary is apparently heading into Kiev and will arrive tomorrow. As far as I'm aware, the Canadian Foreign Minister is still there, too. Hopefully, neither of them ends up being our archduke.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Socialist? You and me both, bud.

And, yeah, I know those guys are idiots. That's why I refer to them as 'Murkins rather than as Americans.

There's 300 million of them and 25% are IMHO mentally retarded, that makes 75 Million idiots. Once in a while the other 225 Million grab them by their leash.

[The Supreme Canuck]

Speaking of comments on news articles, it's interesting that there's a very large number of comments that read exactly as if they were written by some Russian propaganda office. The Kiev government is fascists, the Russian government is protecting ethnic Russians, the US stirred things up and now Russia needs to restore order... I'm sure it's not the Russian government, though. Nope. No way. Couldn't be.

[The Supreme Canuck]

Poland and Latvia have joined Lithuania is invoking Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

Edit: Perhaps not Poland - hard to source.

[Rommie]

Article 4 is not that big a deal and is unsurprising- Turkey called it when one of their fighters was shot down in the Syrian Civil War for example.

Article 5 is where shit starts to go down. We are still a ways away from there though.

[Parrothead]

Yeah, the Article 4 part is the Baltics worrying Putin may pull the "protecting ethnic russians" with them, as there are pockets of large ethnic russians there. They are seeking assurances (don't know if they will get any), that if it comes to invoking Article 5, NATO will stand up.

One scariest part, the russian parliament trying to pass legislation allowing them to enter sovreign states to "defend their minorities". This is a throwback to soviet-era policies.

[FZR1KG]

Protecting ethnic XXXXX, an argument that has been way to overused in the last century.
Hitler used it for fucks sake.
So did Serbia in the 90's to name a couple.

How about some honesty, "Well, we have a lot of free resources we've been plundering that we'd lose if we let this go so we're going to have a fight over it, winner take all. We know its shit for you, but, we have the bomb. So fuck you."

[SciFiFisher]

Protecting ethnic XXXXX, an argument that has been way to overused in the last century.
Hitler used it for fucks sake.
So did Serbia in the 90's to name a couple.

How about some honesty, "Well, we have a lot of free resources we've been plundering that we'd lose if we let this go so we're going to have a fight over it, winner take all. We know its shit for you, but, we have the bomb. So fuck you."

Misdirection and subterfuge are acceptable practices of war. Diplomacy is, in fact, the projection of power without the use of force. Sort of a silk glove with an AK47 under it.