Ukraine

[Parrothead]

So it looks like they are headed for a sham referendum next weekend. I wouldn't put it past Russia, to have the Kremlin friendly Crimean parliament, include Russian soldiers stationed in Crimea as "eligible to vote". Then again, they probably have stuffed ballot boxes already in storage, giving a favourable result. Nothing new.

Seeing footage of how foreign journalists are getting treated (beat up by thugs in fatigues) and OSCE observers being blocked from entering Crimea. They seem to only want observers from Russia. There is some speculation, true observers may be let in, but it will be too few and too late.

Am I surprised, no.

ETA: This conflict in Ukraine/Crimea has me thinking about giving Tolstoy's short story "Hadji Murad" a re-read.

[SciFiFisher]

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. My best guess at this time is that Russia will annex the Crimea under the guise of a popular referendum. They sent in troops disguised as Crimean militia to secure it and now they will legalize this fiction. Reports are that the hand full of Crimean MP's who wanted Russia to take over locked everyone else out and held a vote. Which, of course, Russia will be honor bound to recognize.

They won't stop. No one did anything about the territory and resources they annexed in Georgia. Now it's the Crimea. In essence, Russia has every intention of becoming a "super power" again on the world stage. In ten years we will have another cold war going. In 15-20 years we will be fighting proxy wars with them again in places whose names most of us can't pronounce. Or we will be in the midst of World War 3 with China, the US, and Russia and associated allies in a three way dog fight.

As to why I began this post with the phrase I did. Look at Germany in the 1930's and you will see an eerie parallel with what Russia is doing. Germany annexed several areas/countries prior to kicking off WWII. The thing is that each time no one stopped them other than to condemn and call for sanctions they said... hmmm if they let us do that what else can we get away with.

And here we are 70 years later while Russia continues with it's centuries old dream of owning the continent and a warm water port.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Even more eerie, a few years before Germany started annexing the territories it lost on WWI there was a major economic depression that was a consequence of a big financial crash.

I hope you're wrong, I don't have any arguments to think you are though.

[The Supreme Canuck]

I hope you're wrong, I don't have any arguments to think you are though.

How about "Just because there are similarities doesn't mean that history ever actually repeats itself."

That's not to say that I disagree with the broad strokes of what Fisher is saying, just that drawing historical comparisons are useful only insofar as one doesn't overextend the metaphor.

[Cyborg Girl]

Also, this may sound cliche... But pre WWII Earth did not have the Internet, or cellular phones, or 24 hour news media; or the NSA (and other intelligence agencies) wiretapping everyone. There are parallels, but we are looking at a very different general situation IMO. Truths and lies alike spread much faster these days.

Edit: to be clear, though, I'm not saying that things won't go to shit... More that how they're going to go to shit (or not) will not be predictable, because human society is pretty different than it was before WWII.

[Sigma_Orionis]

You two misunderstand me. I am not thinking of WWIII but I see that it would be very plausible that there would be several proxy wars between the US, Russia and China. And it's infinitely more important to me because Venezuela could be involved, not only as an Oil Supplier (and even if the US needs less of our oil it would be advantageous to them to deny it to the Chinese for example), but because it's in a rather strategic geographic position in South America.

For example, in a situation like that, I can see that the US could REALLY be interested in a regime change here and "encourage it". Half the country wouldn't mind it at all, the problem is that the other half will become aiders and abettors of a Guerrilla movement. Something that happened plenty of times during the height of the Cold War in the 60s.

As for taking historical parallels to a ridiculous extent I in principle agree. However in this particular case, if we are to believe economists like Paul Krugman, the handling of the economic crisis draws intense parallels to what happened in the 1930s. The absolute effects were much smaller: For example nobody thinks that the recession caused by the Crash of '08 was worse than the Great Depression but, According to people like Dr. Krugman the handling was similar although less pronounced: For example: there was a "stimulus package" coordinated by most major central banks, but it was too small and lasted too little. Immediately after there were economic measures (particularly in Europe) that simply extended the recession, just like the economic policies used in the 30s by European Governments. And THAT had a direct effect in the circumstances that helped start WWII. Will it start WWIIII? I don't think so, but It could start a new Cold War.


Edited for Spelling

[SciFiFisher]

Also, this may sound cliche... But pre WWII Earth did not have the Internet, or cellular phones, or 24 hour news media; or the NSA (and other intelligence agencies) wiretapping everyone. There are parallels, but we are looking at a very different general situation IMO. Truths and lies alike spread much faster these days.

Edit: to be clear, though, I'm not saying that things won't go to shit... More that how they're going to go to shit (or not) will not be predictable, because human society is pretty different than it was before WWII.

And yet, no one predicted or anticipated Putin annexing the Crimea. The fact that he is clever enough not to try to swallow countries whole in one swoop only shows that he understands that things are different. But, the broader implications remain the same. No one will try to stop him as long as he doesn't appear to be trying to usurp whole countries. Or ones that are too important to the rest of the world.

[Rommie]

Also, this may sound cliche... But pre WWII Earth did not have the Internet, or cellular phones, or 24 hour news media; or the NSA (and other intelligence agencies) wiretapping everyone. There are parallels, but we are looking at a very different general situation IMO. Truths and lies alike spread much faster these days.

Edit: to be clear, though, I'm not saying that things won't go to shit... More that how they're going to go to shit (or not) will not be predictable, because human society is pretty different than it was before WWII.

And yet, no one predicted or anticipated Putin annexing the Crimea. The fact that he is clever enough not to try to swallow countries whole in one swoop only shows that he understands that things are different. But, the broader implications remain the same. No one will try to stop him as long as he doesn't appear to be trying to usurp whole countries. Or ones that are too important to the rest of the world.

By no one if you mean no one in the US media, then sure because most people never thought about it. As someone who knows a lot more about the region's politics and has paid attention to it far longer than this crisis has been going on, I assure you many people have been worried about this happening for quite some time.

I will also agree with TSC in that just because there are similarities doesn't mean this is history repeating itself. Russia, honestly, frankly, has a really strong post-WW2 track record in doing this sort of thing many, many times- think Hungary 56 and Prague 63, which this is far more familiar to than Germany's actions in the 30s. Once again as I mentioned earlier, Crimea only became not a part of Russia in 1954, when it was given to Ukraine, and I assure you no one at the time ever thought Ukraine wouldn't just be a part of Russia or I doubt they would have done it.

I do also think though that Sigma is right to worry about proxy wars popping up again. Sorry, Sigma.

[SciFiFisher]

Also, this may sound cliche... But pre WWII Earth did not have the Internet, or cellular phones, or 24 hour news media; or the NSA (and other intelligence agencies) wiretapping everyone. There are parallels, but we are looking at a very different general situation IMO. Truths and lies alike spread much faster these days.

Edit: to be clear, though, I'm not saying that things won't go to shit... More that how they're going to go to shit (or not) will not be predictable, because human society is pretty different than it was before WWII.

And yet, no one predicted or anticipated Putin annexing the Crimea. The fact that he is clever enough not to try to swallow countries whole in one swoop only shows that he understands that things are different. But, the broader implications remain the same. No one will try to stop him as long as he doesn't appear to be trying to usurp whole countries. Or ones that are too important to the rest of the world.

By no one if you mean no one in the US media...

More like no one in the numerous intelligence agencies, including the CIA, who should have seen it coming. I admit I wasn't paying that much attention to the Ukraine until they popped up on the US media with the protests and the Ukrainian president leaving town in the middle of the night. But, that isn't my job.

The NSA, CIA, MI6, Mossad, and etc should have seen it coming. As I am based in the US I can speak for the CIA... The deer in the headlights pose they had for Congress and Senate Intelligence Committee was NOT reassuring.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Yeah, YOU take responsibility for the CIA and the NSA, and YOU are a member of the Military-Industrial Complex. So: YES, it's YOUR JOB and it's YOUR FAULT. The US Military is supposed to work as seen on JAG. And where's the guy with the chip on his head anyways? why didn't he stop this from happening?

I presume that if Pooty gets away with this one, in a few years he'll try to "align" the Baltic Republics with Russia, that would be much harder though, since those are members of the EU and NATO. And THAT could start the "proxy wars" we have been speculating about.

[SciFiFisher]

Yeah, YOU take responsibility for the CIA and the NSA, and YOU are a member of the Military-Industrial Complex. So: YES, it's YOUR JOB and it's YOUR FAULT. The US Military is supposed to work as seen on JAG. And where's the guy with the chip on his head anyways? why didn't he stop this from happening?

I presume that if Pooty gets away with this one, in a few years he'll try to "align" the Baltic Republics with Russia, that would be much harder though, since those are members of the EU and NATO. And THAT could start the "proxy wars" we have been speculating about.

Right now his approach, which seems rather clever, is to approach it with the attitude that if he just takes a bite here and a bite there no one will notice that he intends to eat the entire elephant.

At least until someone notices that all that is left is the (fill in how much of the elephant you think will be left here) part(s) of the elephant.

[Sigma_Orionis]

IF you ask me, the parts of the elephant that will be left are Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

And I still say it's your fault. Again, where was the guy with the chip in his head when he was needed?

[SciFiFisher]

IF you ask me, the parts of the elephant that will be left are Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

And I still say it's your fault. Again, where was the guy with the chip in his head when he was needed?

Well, you see the chip got hacked that week and he was off playing baccarat in Monte Carlo. And while it may be my fault no one has video and it wasn't posted on FaceBook so you can't prove it.

[FZR1KG]

Also, this may sound cliche... But pre WWII Earth did not have the Internet, or cellular phones, or 24 hour news media; or the NSA (and other intelligence agencies) wiretapping everyone. There are parallels, but we are looking at a very different general situation IMO. Truths and lies alike spread much faster these days.

Let me rewrite that for you:
Also, this may sound cliche... But pre WWI Earth did not have the the wireless, or wired telephones, or film; or the FBI (and other intelligence agencies) spying on everyone. There are parallels, but we are looking at a very different general situation IMO. Truths and lies alike spread much faster these days.
GJ 1938



Technology always evolves.
Sociopaths do the same old thing, lying, scheming and blaming everyone else, while being given a wider audience to flame their ego's.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Well, you see the chip got hacked that week and he was off playing baccarat in Monte Carlo. And while it may be my fault no one has video and it wasn't posted on FaceBook so you can't prove it.

Facebook? sorry Bub it's on YouTube and it was you, prove me wrong

[Sigma_Orionis]

Let me rewrite that for you:
Also, this may sound cliche... But pre WWI Earth did not have the the wireless, or wired telephones, or film; or the FBI (and other intelligence agencies) spying on everyone. There are parallels, but we are looking at a very different general situation IMO. Truths and lies alike spread much faster these days.
GJ 1938

I think you meant The British SIS, the FBI was too busy playing Keystone Kops with Gangsters.... and looking for Lindberg's Kid

[Rommie]

Also, this may sound cliche... But pre WWII Earth did not have the Internet, or cellular phones, or 24 hour news media; or the NSA (and other intelligence agencies) wiretapping everyone. There are parallels, but we are looking at a very different general situation IMO. Truths and lies alike spread much faster these days.

Let me rewrite that for you:
Also, this may sound cliche... But pre WWI Earth did not have the the wireless, or wired telephones, or film; or the FBI (and other intelligence agencies) spying on everyone. There are parallels, but we are looking at a very different general situation IMO. Truths and lies alike spread much faster these days.
GJ 1938



Technology always evolves.
Sociopaths do the same old thing, lying, scheming and blaming everyone else, while being given a wider audience to flame their ego's.

I think it was a very classic case of technology vs expectations. What I mean is my grandpa never understood the American custom of inviting over neighbors to your house because in communist Hungary you just assumed your neighbor would be spying on you- standard there, but not here. And, of course, today if the NSA decided to set up a similar KGB-esque program people would be horrified. But technology is new territory, so no one raised the alarm on it.

Mind, it's not that the US government didn't do questionable things in the past- I have a prof who asked for his file after the Cold War, and he regularly wrote to one or two Russian profs he met at a conference, but other than saying he was corresponding with Russia that part was blacked out. Apparently the reason is most analysts believe the US government at the time was reading most or all correspondence with Russia citizens were sending, but that would be seriously illegal, so they just classified the section detailing what he and those profs talked about.

Give 'em an inch, they take a mile...

[Sigma_Orionis]

Surprise!, looks like folks at the Baltic Republics and Poland are not happy with Russia's games in Ukraine.....

Poland and Baltics feel heat from Crimea

[SciFiFisher]

Surprise!, looks like folks at the Baltic Republics and Poland are not happy with Russia's games in Ukraine.....

Poland and Baltics feel heat from Crimea

It seems I am not the only one who sees parallels between what Hitler did and what Putin is doing.

Edited to add: And the Poles have pretty good reason to be nervous. between 1914(ish) and 1993 they only enjoyed about 20 years as an independent country.

[Sigma_Orionis]

And that was after 200 years of having their country split in two between Germany and Russia.....

[SciFi Chick]

As to why I began this post with the phrase I did. Look at Germany in the 1930's and you will see an eerie parallel with what Russia is doing. Germany annexed several areas/countries prior to kicking off WWII. The thing is that each time no one stopped them other than to condemn and call for sanctions they said... hmmm if they let us do that what else can we get away with.

And here we are 70 years later while Russia continues with it's centuries old dream of owning the continent and a warm water port.

Was listening to NPR today, and lots of people in Ukraine said this reminds them far more of when the Nazis invaded than when the USSR took over.

[geonuc]

If Russia wants a warm water port, they should look further south. Istanbul/Constantinople/Byzantium is used to being invaded, after all.

[Sigma_Orionis]

right, attacking Turkey, a long time NATO member

[geonuc]

Nato, schmato. Since when does Putin care about such things?

[Parrothead]

Talking with my dad. His view, what Russia is doing in Crimea isn't much different from what happened in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in 1940. The 3 countries were looking at signing a trade agreement amongst themselves in the late 30's. Soviets said this violated treaties signed with SU. Threats were given, troops amassed on the borders and finally rolled in. The elections of 1940 in those three countriehad one party ballots, the elections were held under soviet occupation, soviet soldiers were allowed to vote, the prisons were emptied of soviet supporters who were also allowed to vote. The one party was elected with over 100% of the vote (though officially the number was in the 90's. This puppet party then turned around and "asked to join the USSR". After the annexation was complete the puppet regimes were replaced with others from Moscow. The results were not recognized by the West, but it was de facto soviet rule until 1991.

I figure much the same will happen in Crimea, tomorrow. Will Putin try to have the Tatars deported again?

ETA: according to thr RFERL site, many independent minded news services in Russia, have had editors replaced with more "kremlin friendly" editors. Earlier in the week a pro-Ukrainian was killed in the Donesk area.

ETA 2: The Ukrainian ships and bases that have been blockaded in Crimea. My understanding they have been told once the annexation is complete personnel will be given the choice, switch allegiance or be escorted out of Crimea, arms to remain behind. If it comes to that, what's the possibility of them (Ukr) scuttling their own ships before leaving or (big if) would others parol outside and try to get Russia to allow the ships to get out of port, no idea where they could get to without being blockaded again, though.

Back in a few days.