Plane Crash in Ukraine

[Rommie]

Because this is going to get real political, real fast, as it appears the plane was shot down, likely by separatists in Ukraine who were given equipment by Russia.

Everyone is a bit in shock right now in Amsterdam, as the plane started from here- bit of a shock to me too as I fly out of here often and that always makes you pause. The BBC is showing a little stack of Dutch passports collected at the crash site along with Lonely Planet for Bali... one of those things that touches you more than the usual.

Also I found this article interesting- first of much analysis on this I'm sure.

[FZR1KG]

I fucking hate terrorists and asshole governments that act like them.

[Rommie]

154 Dutch on board. I think this is the biggest loss of Dutch life since the Tenerife airport disaster in the 70s, and I include non-air incidents in that number. Horrific, and such a big deal for such a small country.

Looks like some seperatist idiots who had put up messages on FB earlier this week to claim credit for downed Ukrainian military aircraft posted after this one was shot down, assuming it was another military craft, then deleted the message once the truth became clear. My friends who know more about this stuff than I do tell me the older variety of this kind of surface to air missile can't tell you if it's a civilian or military craft, so the most likely outcome is some trigger happy pro-Russian idiot is to blame here (and Russia for just handing over this kind of stuff of course).

[Parrothead]

Call me skeptical, with Russia wanting to be a part of the investigation (my own personal biases), but realize that it did happen along their border with Ukraine. Perhaps this will help put the brakes on arms shipments that have said to be going on from Russia to the separatists. I just hope things don't get much worse.

This can't be good for Malaysian Airlines as this is now the second plane that they have lost in the past few months. One still unaccounted for and now this, which they had no control over. I did hear a number of airlines have now altered routes, so they will not be flying over Ukraine for the time being. I'll assume that has been mentioned in the article Rommie linked to.

[Morrolan]

stunned, but not surprised. this is what Putain probably did not count on when getting into the covert war business: some trigger happy motherfucker shooting down a civilian aircraft cruising at 33,000 feet, while playing around with his newly acquired SAMs. i read the separatists have found the black boxes and have handed them over to the Russians, probably when they were sanitising the site from any remains from the missile. no doubt they will 'magically' turn out to be either unreadable or completely destroyed.

given that the separatists have no air capabilities at all and the Ukrainians have no need for high level air defences in this conflict, their claims that it was the Ukraine that shot down the plane sound particularly hollow.

[Rommie]

Yeah, from now on I think we can all agree the 2nd amendment right to bear arms in order to have a well-regulated militia does not apply to surface to air missiles.

Count is up to 170+ Dutch, all flags at half mast. For the non-Dutch, public buildings normally don't fly them here unless it's a special holiday, so it's really noticeable everywhere.

This is going to get a lot worse before it gets any better.

[SciFi Chick]

At least 27 Australians perished. And a whole contingent of AIDs researchers that were on their way to a convention in Melbourne were on board as well.

[Yosh]

I know the Stinger will query IFF, don't know about an SA-7...the two most likely culprits. Both track via IR homing. But if any are capable of being able to tell military from civilian aircraft, I'm not aware of it. (Doesn't mean there may not be any.)

So the fuckwad who shot the plane down likely didn't bother determining a thing. He just pointed and fired.

[SciFiFisher]

NPR ran a segment tonight in which they had dialog between a pro-Russian Commander taking to a Russian MI type. It was a cell phone exchange in which the seperatist commander confirmed they had shot down a plane and when. The time stated co-incides with time the airline went down.

German Chancelor Merkel has accused Russia of orchestrating the whole thing. The pressure is on Europe to start backing stricter sanctions of Russia.

[Rommie]

Shock has turned into anger and rage here as the reports came back of belongings pilfered and the site mismanaged. Pretty fucking disgusting to imagine going through mourning while wondering if they've stolen your husband's wedding ring.

[Swift]

I do not doubt the anger and grief of the Dutch or other European countries. But I'm very curious as to how much this will translate into actions. Will the EU impose more sanctions on Russia? Will they do more to help Ukraine fight these rebels?

I also don't pretend to know if those actions would be effective, and what to do if they are not.

[Sigma_Orionis]

According to http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28400218]this those sanctions should cause plenty of economic turmoil in Russia. Whether this will be effective or not I haven't got the slightest idea.

It seems that the Germans are are quite wary of increasing the sanctions....

Germany appears especially reluctant to ratchet up sanctions. That is not surprising, as German exports to Russia totalled 38bn euros (£30bn; $51bn) in 2013 - the highest in the EU.

More importantly, Germany gets more than 30% of its oil and gas from Russia. The Netherlands and Italy are also highly dependent on Russian energy and some of Russia's former Soviet bloc neighbours rely 100% on its gas deliveries.

The EU's trade with Russia - worth nearly 270bn euros in 2012 - dwarfs US-Russia trade.

So even ASSUMING those sanctions work, the EU probably won't increase them, with a European Economy flirting with deflation it would be probably a dangerous gambit.

[Swift]

One side effect of all this I've been wondering about....

My understanding is there has been a lot of opposition in Western Europe to fracking, because of environmental concerns, even though there are gas deposits for which fracking would be suitable. I wonder if there will be an increase in interest in fracking, to try to decrease the dependence on Russian natural gas.

Obviously, this will make no difference in the short term, but it might in the medium term.

[Swift]

You just have to love Putin's ability to spin everything in his direction.

http://amanpour.blogs.cnn.com/2014/07/22/russia-its-decision-time-for-everybody/?hpt=hp_c1

The downing of MH17 was indeed a “game-changer” as many Western leaders have called it, Russian Ambassador to the EU Vladimir Chizhov told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on Tuesday.

“I agree it’s a game-changer,” he said. “It should serve as a wake-up call for everybody to stop instigating violence, stop supporting the Ukrainian government in its military campaign against civilians.”

...

Nonetheless, President Putin has said that in fact Ukraine is at least indirectly to blame for the downing of the civilian airplane, because, he alleges, of its continuing offensive against pro-Russian separatists.

I wonder if Putin also thinks Russia is at least indirectly to blame for the violence in Chechnya. Oh no, those are terrorists, the folks in Eastern Ukraine are Freedom Fighters.

[Rommie]

Another interesting articleon this, from a Dutch journalist.

Regarding fracking, I still don't know honestly if it would happen. The reason is there are actually processes very similar but not quite fracking going on in the Netherlands right now and they are extremely controversial because they cause little earthquakes every few months- see here. Beyond the obvious of damage to houses, this is really disturbing in a country where you have a lot of water works everywhere to ensure you don't flood.

[Parrothead]

Couldn't help but be moved by the sheer numbers of people lining the route of the hearses carrying remains in the Netherlands, yesterday.

Definately a game-changer, from some reports I heard a rather high percentage of dutch peoples support some sort of action be taken, in the wake of this tragedy.

There is an interesting game of which type of sanctions to enforce playing out. France not ready to back sanctions on sales of military hardware, Britain and others not ready to fully back financial sanctions. No one really wants to back sanctions that will harm them, too.

Perhaps some nations could do like Reagan did after KAL007, ban Aeroflot (and other Russian airlines) flights from landing, in their nations, for a start.

I think I saw a report, Aussies are preparing to send police to help secure the crash site.

ETA: I wonder if Germany is thinking they acted too quickly in closing down their nuclear reactors, following Fukashima (sp).

ETA 2: Oh the irony. Ok to back it elsewhere, but don't do it at home.

[Parrothead]

Investigators are getting their second day at the crash site. Who knows how many they will get, IIRC, the "rebels" gave them only a certain time (one week?) carry out investigations.

[squ1d]

Good job I didn't time a visit to the Netherlands at that time hey Rommie, that plane was destined for Perth! 90% of my trips to Europe have been on Malaysian Airlines.

[FZR1KG]

You're not allowed to die.
You have been told.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Well the EU claims they're willing to put some skin in the game....

Ukraine conflict: EU squeezes Russia

[Parrothead]

The latest friction now is over whether russian armoured vehicles crossed over the Ukraine border and were demolished by ukrainian forces. I found this article at the rfe/rl site mentioning how others feel about "humanitarian aid" which Russia delivered in the past.

http://www.rferl.org/content/history-russia-humanitarian-aid/26527433.html

[Parrothead]

An article in rfe/rl states some sort of deal may be in the works, which would end the conflict. Concessions would have to be made all around.

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-russia-endgame/26543169.html