vendic wrote:Statistical analysis.
Almost all the differences between exit poll results and the reported vote counts were in Clinton's favor.
Those that weren't were minor and well within the margins of error.
Ten states the differences were above the margins of error, every one in favor of Clinton.
Statistical analysis is one of the best ways to identify election fixing.
It's worthy to note that the differences between the exit polls and the reported vote count on the Republican side were within error. Even when the data was collected by the same interviewers on the same day at the same location.
Here's the data: http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/06/20/demo ... primaries/
Now there are two possibilities here for such errors.
1) The interviewers all somehow coordinated and decided to do this deliberately. This means different states, different interviewers and different polling companies all somehow plotted together to make it appear that Sanders was a victim for some random reason.
2) The Democratic party was at play to get Hillary to win.
Statistically, it gets even more bizarre.
grapes wrote:Interesting stuff. There were twelve--two are shown pending confirmation. But the full list only has 27 states.
Statistically, it gets even more bizarre.
geonuc wrote:Tarragon wrote:Ignore for a moment whether we can change the system, and tell me if you think there are election reform ideas that might work. What are they?
1. Abolish the Electoral College. President and Vice-president will be chosen by popular vote, with a plurality winning the election.
2. Transfer, by federal law, all control of elections of federal government offices to the Federal Election Commission. State governments will no longer set rules, dates or any other aspects concerning federal elections. Moreover, states will be required to accommodate and not hinder federal elections (provide adequate and numerous polling locations, etc). Voter registration will be uniform and handled by the FEC. Requirements for a candidate getting on the ballot will be set by law and enforced by the FEC.
3. Institute a national ID card. This card, which can simply be the US passport card currently in use for limited travel in North America, will serve as proof of identity for voting in all elections (not just federal) and will be required to be shown when voting. We will have to work out logistics to ensure every citizen has ample and affordable opportunity to obtain and renew their card. We will have to work out details to provide for proof of current residency for Senate and House of Representative elections, but that too will be uniform by law and enforced by the FEC.
4. Make federal election day a national holiday.
vendic wrote:The only thing I'd add to this is that you implement mandatory voting here. After seeing the issues here, that itself might be enough to get the ball rolling on the other issues.
Tarragon wrote:I agree with those for the most part, as a start.
A couple questions. For the plurality, do you have a preference for a minimum threshold to win or to winnow down the number of candidates or do you want to accept the risk of dozens of candidates splitting the popular vote? What happens in a tie?
When you say you want a national ID card to be affordable, do you mean free? Some would say any cost constitutes a poll tax.
Any other election rules, like primary dates, congressional elections, apportionment or anything else?
vendic wrote:Ok, hard evidence time.
A documented case of a voter who's registration was changed by use of forgery.
She went to a judge who compared the two signatures, hers and the one that changed her registration to Republican.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... aster.html
That is one clear example of electoral fraud in action, documented, witnessed and overturned by a judge allowing her to vote for the day.
So on this issue, that voters registrations were tamper'd with there is proof. The only thing that can be argued is the numbers of people that it affected. That will only be discovered with an independent investigation. Which isn't coming.
She was not the only one either. Just the only one I linked to. There are others with similar stories and it's not isolated to NY.
vendic wrote:Statistical analysis.
Almost all the differences between exit poll results and the reported vote counts were in Clinton's favor.
Those that weren't were minor and well within the margins of error.
Ten states the differences were above the margins of error, every one in favor of Clinton.
Statistical analysis is one of the best ways to identify election fixing.
It's worthy to note that the differences between the exit polls and the reported vote count on the Republican side were within error. Even when the data was collected by the same interviewers on the same day at the same location.
Here's the data: http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/06/20/demo ... primaries/
Now there are two possibilities here for such errors.
1) The interviewers all somehow coordinated and decided to do this deliberately. This means different states, different interviewers and different polling companies all somehow plotted together to make it appear that Sanders was a victim for some random reason.
2) The Democratic party was at play to get Hillary to win.
Statistically, it gets even more bizarre.
Tarragon wrote:vendic wrote:The only thing I'd add to this is that you implement mandatory voting here. After seeing the issues here, that itself might be enough to get the ball rolling on the other issues.
What's the penalty for those who don't vote?
geonuc wrote:
Yep, that appears to be evidence (not proof - I subscribe to the scientific use of that term) of an instance of illegal tampering. Probably a Republican voter registration activist gone rogue, but who knows.
geonuc wrote:
Sorry, I can't agree. Your premise and especially your conclusions are, in my mind, flawed. Statistical analysis is not necessarily 'one of the best ways' to identify election rigging and you certainly can't conclude there are 'two possibilities for errors', particularly those two. I know enough about statistics from the work I do to know that laypeople like you and me and everyone else on FWIS who aren't trained in a statistical analysis can't draw conclusions from such data.
Around the world, exit polls have been used to verify the integrity of elections. The United States has funded exit polls in Eastern Europe to detect fraud. Discrepancies between exit polls and the official vote count have been used to successfully overturn election results in Ukraine, Serbia, and Georgia.
Have your papers been peer reviewed?
Yes. There is no formal mechanism for papers like this (nor is there any good forum in which to publish them), but when I leave a "t" uncrossed in these papers, people write to the dean and demand my dismissal (actually, they do that anyway). The conclusions of the initial paper, in fact, have been accepted, and the "debate" has moved on.
The US Count Votes paper which I co-authored with 11 mathematicians, statisticians, and other social scientists was extensively peer reviewed.
geonuc wrote:For example, one other possible reason for the EP/VC discrepancy is what some people have been saying since the election (where Clinton was heavily favored to win over Trump) is that polls - even exit polls - are becoming less reliable because people simply lie about their voting preferences more than they used to, for whatever reasons.
And there could be other reasons for the data looking the way it does. I don't know.
SciFiFisher wrote:Unfortunately, I do not have the time to dig into the data or the websites you are presenting. At the end of the day it would do me no good if I did. The results are what they are. I am not disagreeing with Vendic that the DNC was biased towards Clinton. I also don't totally disagree that they may have engaged in shenanigans to make sure that Clinton won the nomination. As far as I know they did not break the law. They may have been unethical. They were biased. But, that is politics.
vendic wrote:Tarragon wrote:vendic wrote:The only thing I'd add to this is that you implement mandatory voting here. After seeing the issues here, that itself might be enough to get the ball rolling on the other issues.
What's the penalty for those who don't vote?
That one I'm not sure about at all. Most people will follow the rules without fear of repercussions. Especially if you make it easy for them. I don't like the idea of fines/charges at all on this issue. That just leads to the possibility of political prisoners. Maybe just get them to lodge an reason for not voting and if they don't put it on their record.
No idea really.
geonuc wrote:Tarragon wrote:I agree with those for the most part, as a start.
A couple questions. For the plurality, do you have a preference for a minimum threshold to win or to winnow down the number of candidates or do you want to accept the risk of dozens of candidates splitting the popular vote? What happens in a tie?
When you say you want a national ID card to be affordable, do you mean free? Some would say any cost constitutes a poll tax.
Any other election rules, like primary dates, congressional elections, apportionment or anything else?
Plurality: I haven't considered the question to that detail, but a minimum probably would be a good idea. I'd be open to other votong schemes, such as STV.
Free, or minimal fee. We can work it out such that no one is denied due to cost.
One other 'rule'. To combat gerrymandering, redistricting would be done at the federal level by a non-partisan group. State legislatures would have no say in it.
vendic wrote:SciFiFisher wrote:Unfortunately, I do not have the time to dig into the data or the websites you are presenting. At the end of the day it would do me no good if I did. The results are what they are. I am not disagreeing with Vendic that the DNC was biased towards Clinton. I also don't totally disagree that they may have engaged in shenanigans to make sure that Clinton won the nomination. As far as I know they did not break the law. They may have been unethical. They were biased. But, that is politics.
Forging someones signature to change their registration against their will is illegal. I provided a link to evidence of it. A judge agreed it was a forgery.
It's identity theft for a start.
It's also deliberately trying to steer the direction of the selection of the most powerful person in the world. If people don't think this is a problem then I don't know what to say.
The day we start accepting this kind of behaviour as just "politics", is the day we have given up on getting democracy for the USA. I say that with a straight face, you don't have a Democracy here. You have an oligarchy running under a faux Democracy. I doubt they want to give up their power so easily.
Tarragon wrote:Sounds like you want to reduce state autonomy. I don't disagree. The Electoral College was one compromise for that, but hasn't worked out so well.
For the federal gerrymandering commission, do you have any specific rules or preferences for packing and cracking voting blocs?
Is the election reform just for presidential elections or Congress as well? Even with Plurality or STV, there might be a lot of different parties elected. Do you have any ideas or preferences for making the houses of congress work when there's no majority party?
SciFiFisher wrote:vendic wrote:SciFiFisher wrote:But, was it the "Democratic National Party" engaging in a nationwide conspiracy? Or are all the instances you are talking about the work of individuals who for their own motives chose to "help" Clinton win? In the case of the signature forging I would agree that was a criminal act by an individual. But, unless we can prove that they did so because the DNC instructed them to or in some way was part of the crime then all we can accurately determine is that there were widespread individual cases of "cheating" to ensure that a preferred candidate wins. Which, is sadly, a very widespread practice in every country that uses some form of elections to decide things. Or imperfect democracy in action. AKA That IS Politics.
IMO, based on vague recollections, the individual acts of "cheating" usually don't add up to an overwhelming influence on large elections such as choosing a candidate to run for president or the actual presidential election. IOW the cheating gets washed out. If enough voters had wanted Bernie to be the nominee then they would have overwhelmed the small percentage of cheating for Hilary. The only time it might make a statistical difference is if you had two candidates who were practically tied.
geonuc wrote:I see that the data you provided seems to suggest a discrepancy. However, I object to your saying it necessarily means one of the two things you stated. It could mean other things (such as people lying more these days but also maybe something we haven't considered). And it could be meaningless. It could be that there were flaws in the polling rendering the results useless. It could be a lot of things.
I'll wait for the peer-reviewed studies.
Tarragon wrote:What about carrots instead of sticks? Do you think a lottery with casting a vote as the method of entry would bring more people in?
Or including a straw poll section that could be included on the ballots? This would give people a chance to express an opinion, even if it's not binding like in direct democracy.
Tarragon wrote:vendic wrote:The only thing I'd add to this is that you implement mandatory voting here. After seeing the issues here, that itself might be enough to get the ball rolling on the other issues.
What's the penalty for those who don't vote?
code monkey wrote:Tarragon wrote:vendic wrote:The only thing I'd add to this is that you implement mandatory voting here. After seeing the issues here, that itself might be enough to get the ball rolling on the other issues.
What's the penalty for those who don't vote?
I wouldn't have a penalty for not voting in and of itself. however, i'd levy a large fine on anyone who didn't vote but then complained about any gov't action after the inauguration of those elected.
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