Pacific Islands and sea level rise

[vendic]

An interesting article that doesn't make claims that sea level rise is bogus, while still explaining the issues that some South Pacific Islands are facing without using global warming as the reason.

[Rommie]

My understanding about the problem is buried down in the article-

Besides the damage inflicted by sea-level rise itself—coastal erosion, surface flooding, and saltwater intrusion into soil and groundwater—they will suffer from increasingly frequent and severe weather extremes (droughts and cyclones) and die-offs of their coral reefs through ocean warming and acidification, leading to potential collapse of marine ecosystems that provide food and livelihoods for island dwellers.

A decade ago (geez!) when I visited the Cook Islands they told us the issue was not them literally sinking into the ocean (Rarotonga, the main island, is a giant volcano and is not going anywhere) but more what's written here. Cyclones in particular are the awful ones- beyond the devastation a direct hit can cause, floods from them can make the water and arable land brackish, and you basically can't recover from that. And when you're only a square mile wide or two, this is a huge deal and you can't just move inland for more arable land. And when the salt gets into your drinking water, well, you're fucked.

Coral reefs are the second one- most of these islands still really rely on fishing for a large percentage of the food intake (plus money from tourism and all that fun stuff). When the coral reefs die, sustainability becomes a huge problem.

But yeah, I mean, there are definitely some islands that are going to disappear. But like most places on Earth, the risk is not from the slow onslaught but rather the extreme events- even in the Netherlands no one expects the flooding that overwhelms the dikes to come from the ocean, but rather from a sudden deluge of water from the Rhine after a flood.

[vendic]

I found it interesting that these islands move and shift so much, and that some are growing even with the sea level rise. For me the article was contrary to what I'd been lead to believe and have read in the past regarding the islands there. I haven't verified the claim, but, 80% of the islands have grown, as opposed to shrank is quite a surprise to me.

[Rommie]

Yeah, as I said, the question isn't the physical sizes of the islands changing so much as whether they're still inhabitable. This is an insanely different question than the first, but I guess there is a romantic idea to the thought of an island sinking under the waves and all that.

Plus, I mean it's not like the population distribution on all the islands is the same- most of these island nations have one island that will have the majority of the population (often with bad conditions as there are insanely high population densities above what the island can support, and not great conservation practices), and other scattered islands in an area the size of the continental US. So it's not like all islands are equal, and if your main island happens to be in that 20% you're pretty fucked as a nation as the rest of the islands can't support those people (not to mention, it's not like they're just next door to begin with).

[SciFiFisher]

Yeah, as I said, the question isn't the physical sizes of the islands changing so much as whether they're still inhabitable. This is an insanely different question than the first, but I guess there is a romantic idea to the thought of an island sinking under the waves and all that.

Plus, I mean it's not like the population distribution on all the islands is the same- most of these island nations have one island that will have the majority of the population (often with bad conditions as there are insanely high population densities above what the island can support, and not great conservation practices), and other scattered islands in an area the size of the continental US. So it's not like all islands are equal, and if your main island happens to be in that 20% you're pretty fucked as a nation as the rest of the islands can't support those people (not to mention, it's not like they're just next door to begin with).

Really good example of that. The VA has programs that include staff doing home visits. In Hawaii some of the clients do not live on the main island. So, the VA staff have to fly to the smaller islands to do home visits because traveling by boat is too slow.

[Rommie]

Yeah, as I said, the question isn't the physical sizes of the islands changing so much as whether they're still inhabitable. This is an insanely different question than the first, but I guess there is a romantic idea to the thought of an island sinking under the waves and all that.

Plus, I mean it's not like the population distribution on all the islands is the same- most of these island nations have one island that will have the majority of the population (often with bad conditions as there are insanely high population densities above what the island can support, and not great conservation practices), and other scattered islands in an area the size of the continental US. So it's not like all islands are equal, and if your main island happens to be in that 20% you're pretty fucked as a nation as the rest of the islands can't support those people (not to mention, it's not like they're just next door to begin with).

Really good example of that. The VA has programs that include staff doing home visits. In Hawaii some of the clients do not live on the main island. So, the VA staff have to fly to the smaller islands to do home visits because traveling by boat is too slow.

Yeah, Hawaii is relatively large and well concentrated compared to other islands, and part of an exceptionally wealthy country for that region. When I was in NZ I did Pacific History class, and a lot of it kept coming back to "now imagine an area the size of Auckland split into twenty islands, and scattering them over an area the size of the continental USA." It really makes your perspective of the world quite different to imagine knowing a water world with scraps of land tossed in.

[Thumper]

Well, Kevin Costner tried to help us imagine.

[vendic]

That's why I wanted to visit the Pacific Islands by boat.

[SciFiFisher]

Well, Kevin Costner tried to help us imagine.

You beat me to it.