Election 2018

[Rommie]

Because I'm sure we'll need a thread.

Got an email this morning that my absentee ballot was received, and went to follow the link to the Collier County voting page. (I vote in Florida because you vote in the last state you were living in when you move abroad, and I totally lived with my parents for a few weeks a few years back when my old driver's license expired.) Was stunned to see 60% turnout already and it's not even noon! Mostly mailed ballots, but early voting sure makes a difference.

Looking into it further, turns out Collier County is the highest turnout of any county in Florida thanks to all the old people. And they sure ain't voting Democrat. Still, I was pretty impressed to see this in a midterm election, and seemed a good starting point for a thread.

[pumpkinpi]

When I lined up this morning a little after 7, the A-I table was 20 deep (my line), while the K-R and S-Z table had 5 people. That dwindled to zero while I was waiting to check in.

Until one of the poll workers noticed the error, and changed the K-R sign to J-R. Then someone moved from my table to the next. If I had to make a bet, I'd say his last name is Johnson.

[Thumper]

We voted Saturday at our Board of Elections. Vote early, vote often.
We had the time, I knew today's schedule would be hectic.

[SciFi Chick]

Just waiting on the results, and on the heels of Daylight Savings, it feels a lot later than it is as I post this.

[Rommie]

I know! My thoughts exactly!

So far looks like it's going about where I expected, getting the House, Senate staying as is. Honestly, I'll take it.

[SciFi Chick]

Well, the Georgia gubernatorial race seems to be summing up the tenor of the country - still divided straight down the middle. That's the one that's going to make the news.

[Rommie]

I dunno. I think the emphasis on candidates people liked in super tough places is a bit misplaced. Maybe it's because last night I was watching the election with a bunch of Canadians, but I kept having to explain to them that while Beto is inspiring he needs a miracle to win, and they were still so shocked that Texas didn't go for him. Meanwhile I'm like dude, it's Texas (or Georgia, or wherever)- the fact that they did so well is actually impressive!

I guess Florida is more the "split down the middle" one in my mind. But honestly it's so close, that now that all the old felons will vote in Florida in two years time means no one knows what will happen in that state. I will bet good money by that point I won't be a Florida voter anymore though. (We also had a ton of other things on the ballot that went through in FL, like dog racing was banned as was offshore drilling. The one I find telling is it's now in the state constitution that you need a 2/3 supermajority for any tax increases- Florida is fucked.)

If I was a Republican though I'd be very nervous about the fact that if you look at all the votes in all the House elections, it's something like 9% in favor of Democrats across the country. That's a serious enthusiasm gap, and it will be interesting to see what happens with it, especially if Dems can find an inspiring candidate.

[SciFi Chick]

The news seems to be suggesting that the Democrats are going to eagerly launch investigations into Trump's activities, because they have a majority in the House.

Looking at this strictly pragmatically and not emotionally, I don't think this is wise. The country is still highly divided, and I really believe the best strategy would be to find an inspiring candidate as Rommie put it, and focus on the next election.

Trump's supporters believe all the stuff against him is a witch hunt. Perhaps some of it is. Perhaps none of it is, but you have to win the hearts of the electorate if you want to gain in power.

I guess what I'm saying is the Democrats could take a lesson from the populist playbook and play the long game.

[Rommie]

My response to that is a lot of water has to go under the bridge until January, and I don't think what anyone says they're going to do "first thing" the day after the election is always what happens. I also highly suspect Mueller has been sitting on some new things in the investigation that he just hasn't released in the weeks before the election, and that will really be what sets the tone of investigations into the matter. (I find it highly unlikely we would reach 2020 without his report, come to that.)

Obviously we don't know what that investigation finds, but if it's serious shit, I think it would be a serious step in the banana republic direction if the House doesn't look into it because some people's feelings would be hurt given that that's their job.

[SciFi Chick]

I see your point, but he's been under investigation since he got into office, and nothing has really come of it, so to just continue on - I mean, how is this any different than the various investigations into Hillary Clinton?

Yes, I've mentioned Clinton, but not to rag on her. I hate when both sides behave this way.

I want these dumbasses in Washington to serve the American people.

[SciFi Chick]

Also, if Mueller is already investigating, why would we need more investigations? Again, I'm looking at this from the perspective of what will give the Democrats what they really want? I don't think continuing to alienate half the country is a wise idea. I mean, if they truly believe they can bring Trump down, fine. But if they aren't pretty damn positive, I believe this path will lead to Trump getting re-elected.

[SciFiFisher]

I see your point, but he's been under investigation since he got into office, and nothing has really come of it, so to just continue on - I mean, how is this any different than the various investigations into Hillary Clinton?

Yes, I've mentioned Clinton, but not to rag on her. I hate when both sides behave this way.

I want these dumbasses in Washington to serve the American people.

It depends on your perspective. All the investigations into Hilary Clinton were blatantly about torpedoing her political career. One of the prominent Republicans in congress actually bragged that was what they were doing.

Trump, OTOH, has done a lot of shady stuff. It's not totally true to say that "nothing" has come of the investigations into Trump. There have been over 20 indictments, somewhere around 5 or 6 guilty pleas, and a serious conviction in a federal court. And that is just off the top of my head.

His long time fixer, Cohen, appears to have totally flipped on him and is trying to warn people of exactly what and who Trump is.

I think the Democrats CAN'T ignore what Trump and his administration are doing. The real question is with the Senate in Republican hands and the House in Democrat hands can they really do anything effectively to bring down the current administration? And given the refusal to work across the aisle on major substantive issues by the Republicans during the Obama years it is highly unlikely that the Democrats are going to make nice now and try to work with Trump or the GOP.

The best we will probably get is a long simmering stalemate with Trump blaming the Democrats for everything that goes wrong. And more polarization.

[Sigma_Orionis]

if you ask me. As I said elsewhere, If the Dems spend the next two years writing articles of impeachment and making "Pie in the Sky" bills, they're going to lose the House in 2020 and Trump will get re-elected. I am of the opinion that one of the reasons the 'Pubs got their asses handed back to them yesterday was because of the incredible fuckup they made with Obamacare. 8 years passing at least 50 bills to repeal it. Always saying that it sucked and they had something better (Including Trump) and when they finally have to votes to do it, turned out (surprise, surprise) it was evident they didn't have anything. Or the Tax bill. Made so amateurishly that they were handwriting amendments on the bill while trying to pass it. I think that the Dems should start writing well backed, well discussed bills on Healthcare, Infrastructure, Fiscal Policy (among other things) and let the 'Pubs and Trump explain why they killed them on the Senate or why they where vetoed. That way, they have something to sell for the 2020 Election, Which is what they should be aiming at.

The only exceptions would be if the Mueller probe finds incontrovertible evidence that the Trump Campaign collaborated with the Russians. In which case they should get involved with impeachment immediately. OR if Mueller's team issues a report to the DOJ and it's not made public, in which case they should subpoena it immediately.

Of course, now that he fired Sessions, there is another exception: if Trump is stupid enough to have his acting AG fire Rosenstein or shutdown the Mueller Probe. He just let himself wide open for the House to subpoena whatever findings they made and open their own investigation in January. Is he stupid enough? I wouldn't bet against it. HOWEVER that is MUCH DIFFERENT from starting off in January with articles of impeachment.

[geonuc]

Trump fired the Attorney General and his replacement isn't a fan of the Mueller investigation, so we'll see how that goes.

ETA: and Sigma already mentioned the firing ...

[SciFi Chick]

I think Sigma gets where I'm coming from the best.

And now, reading this about Sessions (not that I care about that POS), I'm just going to bed.

See y'all on the flip side.

[squ1d]

Still waitin' SFC.

[SciFi Chick]

Still waitin' SFC.

I don't suppose you know, off the top of your head, what thread I need to go back to? I'll hunt for it if I have to.

[geonuc]

I'd be surprised if Probably-Soon-to-be-Speaker Pelosi will pursue an impeachment vote. She's a savvy operator and unless there's something that's comes of the Mueller investigation that rises to High Crimes and Misdemeanors and demands it, there's no political profit in impeachment proceedings. I've read that an infrastructure bill might be coming, which is something Trump has claimed to support but the GOP hasn't done anything about.

[geonuc]

I think Sigma gets where I'm coming from the best.

I get where you're coming from. I may not agree on everything, but I get it.

[Rommie]

So I confess I haven't been paying much attention to the Florida races as I thought they were all finished, but it turns out our Florida governor's race isn't done either. We are now within 20k votes between the two, which is insane for a state of 21 million!

Tweet from Nate Silver that brought all this to my attention.

Was also reading up about how insane voting is in Arizona if you drop off your ballot- turns out they likely won't know the results from the Senate race there for some time, because if you drop off your ballot they have to verify signatures match. I'm kind of amazed that since 2000 we still haven't been able to sort out reasonable voting systems in this country.

[SciFi Chick]

I think Sigma gets where I'm coming from the best.

I get where you're coming from. I may not agree on everything, but I get it.

And that's okay. I'm not seeking agreement. I'm seeking to be understood so we can have a discussion. I'm trying to look at the perspective of winning. I'm looking at what the Democrats need to do to win. My strategical ideas may not be the best ones, but I think it's fun to look at, and I'm very disappointed with the road they're going down at the moment - at least if the news media is portraying it accurately.

I, frankly, hate living in a world where all sources are suspect and we're left to guess who's telling the truth.

[SciFi Chick]

I'm kind of amazed that since 2000 we still haven't been able to sort out reasonable voting systems in this country.

I'm kind of amazed we haven't been able to sort out a LOT of systems in this country.

[SciFiFisher]

I'm kind of amazed that since 2000 we still haven't been able to sort out reasonable voting systems in this country.

I'm kind of amazed we haven't been able to sort out a LOT of systems in this country.

Well, it costs money. And no one wanted to spend that money on that purpose. And then there were the people who were agin it if the other side was fer it. And of course, no one trusts the machines so half of them wanted to keep paper ballots (which I am OK with BTW). Some of them wanted early voting, mail in voting, and automatic voter registration. But, that seemed to favor the wrong party so the other guys didn't like that.

On a sort of serious note.. In 2016 the Federal Government said "Hey, we think there may be a problem. We would love to offer some money and expertise to help you states fix that." And a bunch of the states, sadly mostly Republican, election officials started screaming that the Feds were trying to interfere in the elections and rig them. Le Sigh.

And that kiddos is why we can't fix the voting systems. They are all run locally and by the state. And none of them can seem to agree on what the fix should be. Some states do better than others.

[pumpkinpi]

I love how my state does voting. To register you need any sort of ID with your name, photo, and current address. If you don't have one, bring a photo id and document with your current address, like a bill or a student fee statement. Or if you don't have any of those, a registered voter can vouch for you. (Really.)

The deadline for registering to be eligible to vote in any election is that day. They have a table ready for you to bring in the proper paperwork or person to vouch for you, and you get yourself registered and then get in the proper line to vote.

When you check in, you prove you are yourself by telling the poll worker your name, and signing your name beside your record. No ID needed.

BUT FRAUD!!!

Yes, that happens. In 2016, almost 3,000,000 people voted. There were 11 convictions of fraud.

https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2018/01/ ... minnesota/

[Rommie]

I have come to realize that conversations about voter fraud are basically the classic mirror into how you view government and society. As in, because it's so easy in your state to vote, there's no question more than 11 people voted who wouldn't have if there was some sort of ID law in place. But if you legit get upset about those 11 people who illegally voted versus the many more who would have been disenfranchised... let's just say I've seen that correlates well with people who get upset about welfare because some people will cheat the system and other things like that.

I confess I've never been terribly upset at the idea of a few people who will cheat the system so long as the grand majority benefit from it. Not enough to suggest fixing inefficiencies over scrapping the whole kit and kaboodle, at least.