Coronavirus

[SciFiFisher]

Well, the good news is that the administration has rescinded the ICS rule about online-only classes.

[SciFiFisher]

Ugh, that sucks SciFiFisher. I hope you guys stay healthy. Why do you think it got so bad in California btw? It sounded like they were being really proactive at the beginning of things.

One of my cousins was saying recently that her big concern is she has three kids, and three different schools, and it does not seem like the local schools are really coordinating with each other. So they might just homeschool all three because who can juggle all that? (Basically one middle school, one elementary, one still in preschool kid.)

Honestly, this school thing makes me angry because of course everyone wants kids back in school. And of course there was time to plan for it, and find money to do it, but the powers that be just clearly can't think of very basic things more than what's in front of them. Finally, of course it was much easier for my Dutch niece and nephew to head back to school in May when getting to that level was a national priority in lockdown over bars, and they were down to a few hundred cases tops. It's really not rocket science to realize that's a hugely different situation than what's going on in most states right now.

There were a lot of people refusing to follow basic recommendations. Brite ran into one last week who had anti-science crap graffiti scrawled on her gas-guzzling SUV. She was following Brite around the store making nasty comments about wearing masks. Brite offered her some hand sanitizer and a spare mask.

Things were relaxed about the end of June. People seemed to think that meant that they could go to birthday parties, have a big 4th of July celebration with family and friends, sing in the church choir, and do all the stuff that helps spread the virus.

The school thing is especially challenging because the kids really need social skills and they do learn better when the teacher is physically present. It's doubly challenging for the special education kids like Son of Brite and SFF.

What really just gobsmacks me about kids going back to school is that Devos and Trump aren't even trying to pretend they really care about the kids or the teachers. And neither are the others pushing this. They don't even try to say they want to work out a way that is safe or will protect the kids or the teachers. They basically demand that someone else figure it out because they don't want to hear about the risks or the reasons why it's a bad idea.

[code monkey]

fisher - how kind, generous and restrained of brite! are you certain that she didn't offer anything else? i'm beginning to worry that she's losing her edge.

I believe that a transfer of prisoners also added to the surge in cases. when a friend said that she didn't care about diseases in prisons (btw, a jolt to me as she's always seemed to be far nicer and more caring than I), I pointed out that while the prisoners tended to stay in, the guards, administrative staff, etc. left the prisons and went home after their shifts, carrying along any infectious organisms they happened to pick up while on duty and that she'd better care. an eye-opener.

[Rommie]

With a giant caveat of "if numbers go otherwise we are back at home because we are not idiots," might be going back to the office this fall in Cambridge.

Basically, a few reasons. First, I don't care what people say, I definitely work better in an office environment than at home- I definitely got programmed for "you work when at work, relax when at home," and can't really unlearn that. Second, I don't actually have to commute more than walking a few minutes, so that really minimizes a lot of risk in going to work, ie no public transit commute. Third, I currently only share my office with one other postdoc, who is arranging to work remotely from California this fall for personal reasons, so most of the day I'd be in the office solo. But fourth, by this fall I do hope we can have a few socially distant interactions with colleagues- we have a huge grassy area outside the office, where I met one for coffee a few weeks ago, and amazing how great it was to just chat about science together. My boss is actually also planning to head in this fall with the same in mind, and man even if I only got 1-2 interactions with him alone every week, I think it'd be worth it.

Mind, I don't think I'd be considering this if it were anywhere except New England in the USA, the way numbers are going. And we're all kind of operating under the assumption that Harvard is as a whole, which is basically "plan to hibernate after Thanksgiving if not earlier." But yeah, reading up on what studies are about w this virus, I think it should be a reasonable risk mitigation.

I'm kinda worried six weeks will be long enough to sink all those plans though the way things are going elsewhere.

[pumpkinpi]

With a giant caveat of "if numbers go otherwise we are back at home because we are not idiots," might be going back to the office this fall in Cambridge.

Basically, a few reasons. First, I don't care what people say, I definitely work better in an office environment than at home- I definitely got programmed for "you work when at work, relax when at home," and can't really unlearn that. Second, I don't actually have to commute more than walking a few minutes, so that really minimizes a lot of risk in going to work, ie no public transit commute. Third, I currently only share my office with one other postdoc, who is arranging to work remotely from California this fall for personal reasons, so most of the day I'd be in the office solo. But fourth, by this fall I do hope we can have a few socially distant interactions with colleagues- we have a huge grassy area outside the office, where I met one for coffee a few weeks ago, and amazing how great it was to just chat about science together. My boss is actually also planning to head in this fall with the same in mind, and man even if I only got 1-2 interactions with him alone every week, I think it'd be worth it.

Mind, I don't think I'd be considering this if it were anywhere except New England in the USA, the way numbers are going. And we're all kind of operating under the assumption that Harvard is as a whole, which is basically "plan to hibernate after Thanksgiving if not earlier." But yeah, reading up on what studies are about w this virus, I think it should be a reasonable risk mitigation.

I'm kinda worried six weeks will be long enough to sink all those plans though the way things are going elsewhere.

What's Harvard's plans for instruction? How often do you and your colleagues interact with undergraduate students? That's my biggest worry right now. As much as an institution can enforce mask wearing inside their buildings, they have no control over what happens when students go home. I just can't imagine all the students making the best decisions on mask wearing and social distancing. Even if 75% of students are diligent, those left over can cause an outbreak.

If you don't have to worry about students around, then I think you're in good shape and I'm happy you'll be able to go back in the office.

[Rommie]

All our instruction is online this fall, both for undergrads and grads (some grad students are going to be coming in too for research, of course, but I find our students to be really mature and am not really worried about them, plus they don't live in dorms). About 40% of the campus is invited back, but I believe it's mainly people like the freshman and seniors. I did ask around for the faculty I interact with, and my boss is teaching a seminar online but that's it.

But yeah my joke is when most of the faculty are in the at risk category and are convinced they need to survive to win the Nobel Prize, your institution is more careful than most.

[Rommie]

I gotta confess, I was pretty happy reading about the vaccine trials this weekend and for the first time allowed myself to feel a little optimistic about the entire situation that multiple vaccines are at that the advanced clinical stage (because while I don't think they'll all work, the odds are getting higher that one will). Nobel Prizes all around IMO.

I mean, there's no way I'd get a vaccine for the first few months after they're introduced, but if healthcare workers at least could and the vulnerable that would be so awesome and reassuring.

[SciFiFisher]

Yes, there are some promising treatments and vaccine possibilites. That will go a long way towards stablizing things if they can get those out.

[code monkey]

we still don't know if the level of antibodies lasts long enough to be effective nor do we know what mass production will be like. so caution, please. cautious optimism. finger crossed and all that.

[Rommie]

Oh don't worry, this is an extra cautious dose of optimism. But some days you want to be a little optimistic.

Anyway, crazy stuff guys- I am typing these words from inside a library right now.

Our little one in town quietly reopened Tuesdays and Fridays for a trial run (bc three days is enough for the virus to die out if it were on any surfaces), and you can reserve one of the little rooms to study, some of which have their own little entrances (old building) so you don't even get close to anyone. I definitely needed a change of scenery to get some writing done (an easy way for me to break writer's block pre pandemic), so reserved one for this morning. Great so far! A door guard to keep track of the number of people in the building (10 tops), they sanitize the study areas between users, and I have the window open.

For me btw the fun thing is they legit have a little basket of cloth homemade masks when you come in at the main entrance that someone made and donated, right next to the mandatory hand sanitizer station. This strikes me as the most New England thing ever and I love it.

[pumpkinpi]

Oh don't worry, this is an extra cautious dose of optimism. But some days you want to be a little optimistic.

Anyway, crazy stuff guys- I am typing these words from inside a library right now.

Our little one in town quietly reopened Tuesdays and Fridays for a trial run (bc three days is enough for the virus to die out if it were on any surfaces), and you can reserve one of the little rooms to study, some of which have their own little entrances (old building) so you don't even get close to anyone. I definitely needed a change of scenery to get some writing done (an easy way for me to break writer's block pre pandemic), so reserved one for this morning. Great so far! A door guard to keep track of the number of people in the building (10 tops), they sanitize the study areas between users, and I have the window open.

For me btw the fun thing is they legit have a little basket of cloth homemade masks when you come in at the main entrance that someone made and donated, right next to the mandatory hand sanitizer station. This strikes me as the most New England thing ever and I love it.

Oh, I miss libraries so much. Mostly for my kids. I have enough of a stash of books that I know I want to read that I can buy or put on hold, but still it's fun to browse the shelves every now and then. And for my kids, looking through the online catalog to find things just doesn't work. I look forward to going back with them!

[squ1d]

Things have been mostly good over here, although Victoria is currently experiencing a bit of a wildfire, and it remains to be seen if they can get it under control again. I'm EXTREMELY lucky being in WA, as we have no community spread at all, and life goes along "sort of" normally. But as we know, that could all change quite easily.

One thing that has occurred to me recently is that the philosophy of "rugged individualism" is incompatible with issues that require the sacrifice of minor individual freedoms in a swift and united manner. That focus on the individual and resentment of government interference is kind of the perfect storm for a pandemic.

[SciFiFisher]

Things have been mostly good over here, although Victoria is currently experiencing a bit of a wildfire, and it remains to be seen if they can get it under control again. I'm EXTREMELY lucky being in WA, as we have no community spread at all, and life goes along "sort of" normally. But as we know, that could all change quite easily.

One thing that has occurred to me recently is that the philosophy of "rugged individualism" is incompatible with issues that require the sacrifice of minor individual freedoms in a swift and united manner. That focus on the individual and resentment of government interference is kind of the perfect storm for a pandemic.

I think you expressed it perfectly. For the U.S. even when we know the danger is imminent it takes an actual physical threat to get some people to pull together. A lot of people want to beleive that it was one big team effort during WWII for example but it wasn't as homogenous as people think. I do think in some ways it is worse now because it is easier for the contrarians to communicate with each other and support each others blind adherence to the cult of "fuck the rest of you".

[SciFiFisher]

On a humorous note. I had to pull door duty at my VA hospital for two days this week. I was screening people for any possible symptoms or exposure to coronavirus. if they were clear they could come into the hospital. If they were potentially or actually contagious we shunted them to an outside screening area where staff in a higher level of PPE could check them out and test them. An older veteran came in to be seen in the ER. He was a well known frequent visitor to our ER and he was known to have bed bugs. We only screened him for COVID. He went to the ER desk and the Medical Support Assistant working there FREAKED OUT. LMBO. They were more afraid of his bed bugs than they were of COVID based on their reaction. Mind you, a bed bug infestation in a hospital is bad Juju. They chased him out of the hospital and made him wait in the COVID waiting area.

[pumpkinpi]

Tonight I briefly forgot about the pandemic. Buster has a soccer training arranged by the family of one of his teammates. I had a conflict with picking him up (donating blood for the first time! Thanks Rommie for the suggestion!) So I told MrPi I could drop him off, then maybe he could go home with one of the teammates and I could pick him up later. That's something we'd done in the before time. MrPi said I don't know what families would think of that because, you know, covid.

So I ended up changing my appointment for donation so I can ferry him.

And so, yeah, thanks Rommie for being the inspiration for donating blood! I'm curious to get the antibody test. I feel a bit bad that this is the thing that made me decide to do it. My parents were regular donors in their youth. I've always wanted to but for some reason never did. It's not about needles; I have blood drawn regularly and it doesn't bother me. It's more about the blood volume, and the potential for getting dizzy. I'm sure I'll be fine. We'll find out!

[code monkey]

pumpkin pi, I hope that the donation went well and that you will now be a regular donor.

my dad donated regularly (mom was excluded) and this was something that I looked forward to being allowed to do as I grew up. Michael and I both donated until we were not permitted to. for the last several years that I was allowed to donate I was a pheresis donor. a minor inconvenience but a solid contribution.

[Rommie]

Hope the donation went well, pumpkinpi! And I was kind of similar, used to do it regularly but lapsed when I moved to the USA... and now waiting for my status to change per the Red Cross.

Speaking of moving to the USA, today is the anniversary of one year since I last left the USA (went to Canada for a few days to work on PhD corrections). Obviously, y'all know me enough to know that's a surprisingly large milestone for someone who lived abroad almost a decade! Obviously, it wasn't supposed to be this way, but between the green card and the pandemic it's been a strange year. (We did however go to a dozen states and Puerto Rico, so guess we can't say we've been really homebound.) I'm more wondering when we'll be going again- this is also definitely the longest stretch in adulthood that I'm not flying anywhere, and no plans to do so, which is also strange.

I will say though, I'm really getting into my NH "52 with a view" hiking list- did #13/52 on it on Saturday. The only trouble is now I'm eyeing a few on the 48 4,000+ foot list, which I know I'd never finish but want to keep track of... well, worse pandemic hobbies to pick up I guess!

[pumpkinpi]

MN's Governor announced guidelines for school instruction this fall. It's based on data! It lets districts make their own decisions based on local conditions! Yippie!

So, you look at the case count in your county per 10,000 residents in the past 14 days, and find which one of the FIVE options matches your lucky number!

0-9 All in person
10-19 Elementary students in person, secondary students hybrid
20-29 all hybrid
30-49 Elementary students hybrid, secondary students online
50+ all students online.

Plus, districts MUST offer fully online options for families that choose to keep their students home.

Sooo many questions....

The school year is still 5 weeks away, but the decision is based on the past 14 days of data. Should districts wait for the latest possible data release to make their decision, or base it on today? (We'd be option 3, all hybrid)
Should they be reassessing every week? What's the threshold, one case over? two? three? What if it comes back down within the next two weeks?

What's elementary vs. secondary? My kids' school goes through 8th grade. So if they fall in one of the grey areas, do they have different models for the different grades?

Minneapolis schools had already decided to go fully online before the Governor's news conference. They recognized what a mess the hybrid system would be. St. Paul announced the same just after the conference. My kids are in neither district, but we border both cities and are in the same county as St. Paul.

Last months districts were told to prepare for three options: in person, hybrid, and online. Now add in the additional two options, and the need to constantly reassess, and imagine what a headache it is for administrators right now.

It's my understanding that nothing is mandated, but I don't really think offering these guidlines made at any easier for planning.

So, we wait for an announcement from the schools.....To be honest, I hope they choose the online only model. MrPi and I are both going to be working from home--him 100%, me at least 50%. So we can handle it. And I'd much rather have them fully at home to start and potentially go back in person, then to have them start out in person and eventually be sent back home. And hybrid--no thanks.

edit: we're actually in the 2nd category, so elementary students would be in-person full time.

[SciFiFisher]

Our schools have elected to go strictly all online. Zoom and Google Classroom are the primary delivery methods.

[pumpkinpi]

I don't know what's worse--people who refuse to wear masks, or having someone I know and care about say they wear masks to make others comfortable and/or protect themselves, but if the government mandates it, it's about control and people shouldn't be forced to.

Umm.....are you getting the idea it's about control on your own, or did someone/some group tell you it's about control? Isn't that a form of control itself? Who's the one being controlled now?

I've had a friend I've called out on social media a couple times about masks, one time making the connection to "if you think they are controlling you now, just wait until they make you take the vaccine." I've had to just unfollow her. I know I'm never going to get through to her.

Edited to add: Actually, I do admit a mask mandate is about control. Controlling the spread of the virus, of course! I am glad that most of my fb friends agree, it's just a few outliers who don't. I with that was also the same ratio as the general population but alas....

[Rommie]

My joke about all this is where have all these people been to protest my right to be topless in public and not wear pants?

But yeah, the other thing that drives me bonkers is I am well-versed in libertarian philosophy. The reason you shouldn't require people to wear masks, the argument goes, is because they are smart and will realize on their own that they should wear them. That's obviously not happening, and someone's right to life outweighs someone's right to not wear a piece of cloth. It's really nuts.

Also, yesterday I learned my dad legit doesn't think that there'd be any real difference if we lived our lives normally right now instead of all the restrictions, because "10 million people died during the Spanish flu." When I said that's not true, we can track this well, and said "at least 150,000 people (I was being conservative) haven't died because of the restrictions- do you think 150,000 families not mourning the death of the loved one is not a big deal?" And for that I got the grumpy "no one knows what's going on" shpeel.

What prompted this, btw, is in a little over two weeks F and I are driving down to Virginia to meet my nephew. We are planning to quarantine and were even looking into getting a test before we go (you can pay about $100 for a same day result one), and parents were asking why we don't plan to also swing by my brother who lives ~3 hours away from sis. I said no because my SIL will be just back a week from traveling to Hungary- her grandma just got diagnosed with terminal cancer so she decided to go home some weeks ago- and will be in her own quarantine. My mom said a macho (can it be macho if it's a woman?) "don't worry about us!" as if that solved it (ie, don't worry if we come back and bring the virus). Legit had to tell my mother sorry but I love them, so I am going to worry about them whether they care or not.

It drives me bonkers how this virus is, indeed, not that big a deal if we take the right precautions. Why the hell is that so hard to understand?

[SciFiFisher]

It's funny how we have ruled that public safety outweighs personal liberty for everything from wearing seat belts to saying the word "fire" in a public theatre but suddenly the government can't tell us to wear a mask? And trust me, I disagree with some of the public safety stuff such as a wearing a helmet for riding a motorcycle. But, no one decides to not wear a helmet and then run into a wall to prove the government can't tell them what to do. I have a lot of other examples that come to mind.

Maybe we have always had a significant level of ignorance in the population but the speed at which information travels just makes us more aware of them. And it allows them to propagate their ignorance at a very rapid rate also.

[code monkey]

oh yes - personal liberty and bodily autonomy. who knew that so many were pro-choice? (I know, I know. that's different.)

as for mask-wearing I've become quite fond of 2 slogans -

better a mask than a coffin.
if you don't like wearing a mask then you really won't like a ventilator.

I had dismissed the latter because if you're on a ventilator you're also sedated. (and by sedated I mean out.) however, my sister, the nurse, has told me that she's had patients tell her that they could hear people talking and tried desperately to communicate. there were a number of indications that these were not dreams or fabulation.

[lady_*nix]

@cm

It's even worse than that. Exceptionally long and realistic nightmares are common for people in comas, especially sedation induced comas.

e.g. https://kotaku.com/the-dreams-of-a-man- ... 1833572960

[Sigma_Orionis]

Estimates of how many people died in the US because of the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic vary from 500,000 to 850,000 from 1918 to 1920. So, you were being quite conservative Rommie. Of course, as you said. that's pretty cold comfort for the relatives of the 150.000 people who have died in the US so far. There are a lot more practical considerations though. This Pandemic came into force in March. As of this morning, you've lost 156,000 people so far. An estimate by the University of Pennsylvania claims that the pandemic could last until November 2021.. The same person who made that estimate said that he expects that the US will have about 250,000 deaths attributable to COVID-19 by the end of the year You are already 3/5ths of the way there. This Pandemic can be potentially as bad as the Spanish Flu epidemic or worse. And that epidemic is considered to be one of the worst in recorded history. And this happened under much better conditions than in 1918. The position that "at least it isn't as bad as the Spanish Flu" goes well beyond ridiculous.