Election 2020

[Rommie]

Well, I went and cast my vote today for The Lesser By Far Of Two Evils (i.e. Biden).

The line was long, going all the way back around a block and through several loops - it was kind of interesting TBH to see how people had self-organized into those loops to reduce the area the line took up. But in any case, people are not fucking around. One of the volunteers said it was usually like this on voting day proper, but she'd never heard of it being this way during early voting.

Straight Ds all the way through obviously. I was disappointed to see none of the farther left candidates I voted for got past the primaries, but what you gonna do. Here's to hoping that Trump gets his ass kicked, that enough decent people remain in our institutions to show him the door, and that he doesn't order anything nuked during the lame duck period.

Hey, hope you voted for ranked choice voting to make that a reality someday! (The one interesting thing for me as a MA voter this year- we have a "Yes on 2" sign in our yard.)

I got my ballot in the post some days ago but it's still sitting on the coffee table. There are several drop off boxes in Cambridge so I will walk it over sometime- I have two weeks so don't think particularly matters if I just wait until it's convenient to get it in during the next two weeks.

[Rommie]

There are a number of stories starting to surface about Republicans distancing themselves from Trump. Rats abandoning ship. Ben Sasse is the most prominent as he apparently let Trump have it with both barrels in a virtual town hall. Of course, my take on this is these are the same fuck muppets who voted to acquit Trump. They took off the masks the last 4 years and showed us who they really are. Now, they are trying to slap a new coat of paint on the Republican party and gaslight everyone into believing that it was all Trump and a few enablers at the top.

We can't let them do that. They have shown everyone exactly who they are. There is no treason horrible enough and atrocity terrible enough that they won't contemplate using it to get what they want. They all need to go. The Republican party is like an old building that cannot be restored with some cosmetic work. It needs to be torn down to the foundations and rebuilt using better materials.

I am shocked, shocked to hear politicians are acting like politicians! (I think it's hopefully too little too late.) But yeah if their party platform this year is literally just saying they support Trump, it's a pretty demanding backtrack even for them.

Read an interesting piece this weekend that while everyone keeps saying we likely won't know the election results election night, this is probably not 100% true because two of the crucial swing states, Ohio and Florida, are allowed to count ballots as they come in, so unless they're really close (not impossible, see: Election 2000) we should have the results in around 11pm per usual for those. And Trump needs to win both, so if one or the other goes to Biden you can go to bed feeling a lot better about things. (It should be noted Texas is also one of these count as they come in states, and pretty much everyone needs to vote in person there, but I think everyone knows if Texas goes Biden Trump is gonna lose in a landslide without that being pointed out. Also, it's not as likely as Florida.) Like, we might not know Wisconsin and PA on Election night, but if Ohio is Biden that's safe to assume of the others... assuming, of course, that some serious contesting won't happen, which may yet be a reason to toss and turn election night.

I guess we'll see, but I reckoned I'll be watching anyway that night so it's good to know there are still signatures to keep an eye on to know what to be nervous about.

[lady_*nix]

@Rommie

I did vote for ranked choice! Really hoping that goes through.

@Rommie, @Fisher re "the rats deserting the sinking ship"

They're waffling, and always will. If Trump appears to be winning, they'll waffle towards him; if he appears to be losing, they'll waffle away; and if he seems to have a good shot at pulling off a coup, they'll waffle back to him, with their tails between their legs and supplicating praise on their lips.

IOW, don't count on the apparent loss of their supporting helping us much, especially if Trump doubles down on the illegal stuff.

[code monkey]

I voted on Friday. for the first time since I've been in Oregon there was another car behind me at the drop box. (Oregon is exclusively vote by mail or drop box.) it's yellow dog time. I've got my fingers crossed.

yes, it's interesting to see some of the republicans daintily stepping away. not too far, of course. what gives me hope that our current president will not be able to pull off a coup is the number of very high level military and intelligence people who've made public statements against him. I do believe that once he's out of office we'll be inundated with tell-all books from his inner circle which will explain how they deserve unending praise as they kept him from doing even worse things. yes, much like the soldier who throws him/herself on the hand grenade and sacrifices him/herself to save his/her fellows, they sacrificed reputation to save the country.

[Rommie]

I mean, I'm not saying my BiL who works in the Pentagon knows everything and everyone about the Pentagon... but he thinks it's laughable that Trump would manage a coup like what Erdogan did in Turkey where you need the support of the military. The others around here can agree or disagree, but he says the army is not as conservative these days as people think (like, I'm not saying those right wing guys don't exist, but they decided to allow trans people serving for example until Trump said they couldn't). I think there's been enough things happening in the last four years that has insulted the military and complicated their lives to anyone paying attention.

Honestly though I think if Biden wins, the best (and hopefully most likely) outcome is Trump refuses to concede, and refuses to go to any inauguration or similar... but Jan 20 finds him a few weeks into "running things" from Mar a Lago and the power goes to Biden at the appointed time. Like, I don't know why people make such a big deal of him potentially refusing to concede when it's pretty obvious that's what's going to happen, but it's not like the Constitution cares, and he'll still get the standing to fleece his followers which is what he wanted from the 2016 election anyway (I mean the man still bitches about voter fraud in an election he won). Coups in the traditional sense are, in fact, a shit ton of work and hard to pull off, and he doesn't strike me as the type to be interested in that.

A good old fashioned "contest, and go to the Supreme Court you've rigged" coup though? Totally still on the table, and I still think a landslide would probably be the easiest way around that.

[SciFiFisher]

I am reasonably certain that Trump is never going to be able to pull off a good old fashioned military backed coup. What makes me break into a cold sweat is that the election results are just close enough that he files a court case which goes all the way to the Supreme Court, which is stacked with Republicans, who will rule that Trump won the election.

The other issue that worries me a tad is the way he has been fermenting and agitating the more violence prone types on the far Right if he loses we may see some terroristic acts.

[lady_*nix]

Yeah when I say "coup" I'm not talking exclusively about a military coup. Trump has other means and he will use them. (And yeah those two things you folks mention are among my main concerns. TBH I'm also very worried about law enforcement agencies siding with Trump, since police unions fucking adore him.)

But yeah I just... suspect it's going to be worse than y'all imagine. Worse than I imagine too, probably. The administration's handling of the pandemic has already exceeded my wildest nightmares.

[Rommie]

Fun widget on 538 today- https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... id=abcnews

Basically you can choose a state and set it to a Biden or Trump win, and see how it changes the odds of each winning. What is honestly striking to me is if you choose just one of those swing states to go Biden, and Trump basically has no chance of winning. Choose just one to go Trump though, and the odds get way higher than most people would be comfortable with for him winning, so guess that still is enough to strike the fear of God into anyone.

Also, sign of how weird 2020 is: my friends have all voted and think I'm weird for still just having my ballot on my coffee table and figuring I'll drop it off sometime.

[pumpkinpi]

Fun widget on 538 today- https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... id=abcnews

Basically you can choose a state and set it to a Biden or Trump win, and see how it changes the odds of each winning. What is honestly striking to me is if you choose just one of those swing states to go Biden, and Trump basically has no chance of winning. Choose just one to go Trump though, and the odds get way higher than most people would be comfortable with for him winning, so guess that still is enough to strike the fear of God into anyone.

Also, sign of how weird 2020 is: my friends have all voted and think I'm weird for still just having my ballot on my coffee table and figuring I'll drop it off sometime.

They would probably think I'm crazy. I plan to vote in person! We're going to our local library which has in person voting all next week. I figure it will be a long wait so I'll go as early in the week as I can, and change my plans if the line is just too long.

[lady_*nix]

So uh not directly election related, but this is what Amy Coney Barrett's track record looks like:

https://www.theroot.com/unqualified-imp ... 1845429637

[SciFiFisher]

So uh not directly election related, but this is what Amy Coney Barrett's track record looks like:

https://www.theroot.com/unqualified-imp ... 1845429637

I don't know how things will look in a couple of years. But, I suspect that if the D team wins big and controls the House, Senate, and Presidency we are going to see some legislation that will make it easier to impeach judges, an expansion of the seats on the supreme court, and other efforts to curtail blatant racist rulings. My preference is probably to make it easier to impeach judges for judicial malfeasance.

[lady_*nix]

@Fisher

That would be lovely but I highly doubt it will happen.

[Rommie]

So uh not directly election related, but this is what Amy Coney Barrett's track record looks like:

https://www.theroot.com/unqualified-imp ... 1845429637

I don't know how things will look in a couple of years. But, I suspect that if the D team wins big and controls the House, Senate, and Presidency we are going to see some legislation that will make it easier to impeach judges, an expansion of the seats on the supreme court, and other efforts to curtail blatant racist rulings. My preference is probably to make it easier to impeach judges for judicial malfeasance.

It's kind of crazy for me because my former lawyer American history teacher spent a lot more on courthouse packing during the Great Depression than the average teacher likely did... and the same might be coming up. History may not repeat but it sure does rhyme.

I really think if the Dems become in charge a ton of their messaging will just have to focus on what is precedent because the Constitution says it has to be, and what are just things that have been around for awhile (and for how long) that the Republicans have taken huge advantage of. The Republicans will kick up a giant fuss about the filibuster for example, no doubt, but I suspect most people don't know that it no longer applies to judicial appointments, and it's not actually a real rule. Same with basically most of what exists for the Supreme Court right now- we might not know much of what the Founding Fathers wanted because they only sketched broad outlines, but I'm pretty sure what's happening now there is not what they had in mind.

[lady_*nix]

Tangentially related and apropos of nothing, I've lately taken to referring Mitch McConnell as "the unfair death turtle".

[lady_*nix]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ion-orders

Holy shit. I mean unsurprising, but holy shit.

[SciFiFisher]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/22/us-ice-officers-allegedly-used-torture-to-make-africans-sign-own-deportation-orders

Holy shit. I mean unsurprising, but holy shit.

I suppose we could be grateful they aren't just dragging them out and shooting them all and then burying them in a mass grave. But, in a perverse way, it makes sense that witnesses need to be made unavailable to testify.

[code monkey]

@Fisher

That would be lovely but I highly doubt it will happen.

we've got lying under oath and Thomas would be first on my list for that followed closely by more recent justices. simple incompetence for the latest pick - asked about what federal law had to say about voter intimidation her response was that she'd have to talk with her clerks and other judges! diane feinstein read the law to her.

[code monkey]

So uh not directly election related, but this is what Amy Coney Barrett's track record looks like:

https://www.theroot.com/unqualified-imp ... 1845429637

and I thought that the prison rape decision was revolting. the 'no right to breathe' decision leaves that one in the shade! what a miserable, disgusting excuse for a human being.

[lady_*nix]

@cm

Yeah, if the Democrats take back the govt they need to clean house. Impeach Justices, put stricter regs on what can be called "news", hit Breitbart and FOX and the like with lawsuits. Make it impossible for a fascist takeover like this to happen again. But that's a big if, and regardless, they absolutely don't have what it takes; they're too addicted to civility and making nice with people who want to murder them.

This is a thing both conservatives and leftists understand, and liberals... mostly don't, IME. When someone shows up at your barbecue with a weapon and starts threatening to murder your family, you don't try to appease them with extra delicious barbecue, and maybe bargaining away one of your less-liked relatives. You brain them with a skillet at the soonest opportunity, and only give yourself space to deal with your guilt once they're no longer an immediate threat. Debate and bargaining are for when your opponent gives a damn about your existence.

Re Barrett: yeah. She's bad. All of these people are.

[Rommie]

Watched the debate last night, but honestly it was on the level of "still crazy compared to 4 years ago, but nowhere near as crazy as the first debate." Honestly while some moments were interesting enough at the time, I think it wasn't enough to change anyone's minds either way. Especially when 50 million people have voted already!

On another note, I sure look forward to whenever we get around to watching Borat II this weekend for an already infamous Giuliani scene.

[lady_*nix]

Let's be honest, the right is probably going to take that as a sign of Giuiliani's vitality and upstanding male character, because they have no self-awareness at all.

[SciFiFisher]

He was just tucking his shirt in.

[lady_*nix]

Hahahaha NOPE

I have a lot of thoughts on that footage, but the main ones are things about Giuliani I can't put in print on a public forum.

Edit: actually I am going to say one other thing... this is going to sound super weird, but? If I had to be in a situation like that and trust a dude to have my back, I could do a lot worse than with Sacha Baron Cohen. Seeing that footage gave me a level of respect for him I didn't have before.

[code monkey]

He was just tucking his shirt in.

now why am I reminded of that old joke?

officer, we were just necking.
then I suggest you get your neck back in your pants

[SciFiFisher]

He was just tucking his shirt in.

now why am I reminded of that old joke?

officer, we were just necking.
then I suggest you get your neck back in your pants