Ukraine

[Rommie]

Well, the geopolitical map as it was just a few days ago is officially done and buried. All those poor people.

I find it rather incredible and depressing that we still live in a world where basically one dude can decide to invade a foreign nation, and can just go off and do it, with no one really doing a thing about it. I suspect despite all the dire warnings a lot of people in Russia and abroad just legitimately did not think it was going to happen- or if it did it would be more of the "carve off just the Russian territories" type of occupation, not a full scale one (like the Sudentenland in Czechloslovakia before the start of WW2). I kept telling my husband this for weeks and he kept shrugging his shoulders saying it was all a ruse/ Putin would just go after those territories and leave it there, then he told me "Putin's gone crazy" this morning when I woke up as if this wasn't the outcome everyone was saying was going to happen.

Well, we sure can't put this genie back in the bottle. I'm just reminded though of all the other wars I've seen start in my lifetime, and how the end game is hardly ever like what they imagine at the start if they think about it at all. And I genuinely can't imagine any end game here that ends the way Russia imagines- when you have such a naked aggressor, there's just going to be such a huge insurgency, with a helluva lot of backing from the West. Like ok, Putin, if you think the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest mistake ever, you'd think you'd remember the mortal wound called 1970s Afghanistan in that happening...

Also, strange times in Poland and Hungary now I think, with their far-right governments that were cozying up with Russia. It's an election year right now in Hungary, and less than 3 weeks ago the Hungarian PM, Orban, was literally in Moscow praising Putin and saying Russia today wasn't like the USSR which mistreated its neighbors like Hungary. Now add in the millions of refugees and the speech of Putin basically saying the exact opposite and... as I said, I really think a lot of people didn't think he'd go through with it despite all the evidence.

Ugh.

[lady_*nix]

Have to confess, I was sure for a while that this was the Biden administration trying to gin up another war to distract from their failures on domestic issues, just as Bush and Trump had done. Guess not.

That probably reflects mostly on my own cynicism and paranoia, but I think it also says something about how wrecked citizens' trust in the US federal govt is.

[Rommie]

IDK I feel like when a big geopolitical thing like this happens that doesn't actually affect the USA, people project onto the administration whatever they feel about it. Like not aimed as a jab at you, just a general observation, my brother was on a rant earlier about how "this only happened because Putin saw Biden is weak!"

[lady_*nix]

Yeah that's entirely fair, it might just be a US centrism thing.

And I get the "not a jab" part. TBQH I appreciate your frankness.

[Sigma_Orionis]

If you ask me, Putin at the very least wants all of Eastern Europe back under Russia's boot. If he can get Finland and Azerbaijan, even better. I strongly suspect that people in Hungary and Poland are as nervous about it as the ṕeople from the Baltic Republics. And hoping that since all of them are members of NATO, Putin won't invade them. At the very least the Polish PM is quite alarmed over the prospects of having a border with Russia again. And I strongly suspect that Orban is going to keep his mouth shut if he knows what's good for him because: While he might have the support of Hungarians that lean towards the far right, I strongly suspect that they don't see Russia anywhere in the same light as Orban does.

Case in point...

[SciFiFisher]

Finland has a very interesting relationship with Russia already. It's complicated.

[SciFiFisher]

Well, the geopolitical map as it was just a few days ago is officially done and buried. All those poor people.

Also, strange times in Poland and Hungary now I think, with their far-right governments that were cozying up with Russia. It's an election year right now in Hungary, and less than 3 weeks ago the Hungarian PM, Orban, was literally in Moscow praising Putin and saying Russia today wasn't like the USSR which mistreated its neighbors like Hungary. Now add in the millions of refugees and the speech of Putin basically saying the exact opposite and... as I said, I really think a lot of people didn't think he'd go through with it despite all the evidence.

Ugh.

It seems that a lot of people really thought he would not actually do it. I suspect a lot of factors led us to this situation. When he invaded Georgia no one really did much. When he invaded Crimea no one really did much. Meanwhile the world has gone more authoritarian. It wasn't just Trump cozying up to strong men like Putin and Xi Jinping. A lot of alliances are not as solid as they once were. So, we slide slowly towards disaster. I am not sure if this will trigger a massive war in Europe or not. I suspect not. They will continue to try appease him or hurt him economically without much effect.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Finland has a very interesting relationship with Russia already. It's complicated.

I bet that they're remembering the so-called "Winter War" in Helsinki right now...

[Sigma_Orionis]

Well, the geopolitical map as it was just a few days ago is officially done and buried. All those poor people.

Also, strange times in Poland and Hungary now I think, with their far-right governments that were cozying up with Russia. It's an election year right now in Hungary, and less than 3 weeks ago the Hungarian PM, Orban, was literally in Moscow praising Putin and saying Russia today wasn't like the USSR which mistreated its neighbors like Hungary. Now add in the millions of refugees and the speech of Putin basically saying the exact opposite and... as I said, I really think a lot of people didn't think he'd go through with it despite all the evidence.

Ugh.

It seems that a lot of people really thought he would not actually do it. I suspect a lot of factors led us to this situation. When he invaded Georgia no one really did much. When he invaded Crimea no one really did much. Meanwhile the world has gone more authoritarian. It wasn't just Trump cozying up to strong men like Putin and Xi Jinping. A lot of alliances are not as solid as they once were. So, we slide slowly towards disaster. I am not sure if this will trigger a massive war in Europe or not. I suspect not. They will continue to try appease him or hurt him economically without much effect.

From what I've read, the Ukrainians are putting up quite a fight. The Russkies have not been able to take any major cities YET (last night they entered Ukraine's second largest city. Today: the Ukrainians claimed they drove them out). Yesterday, Germany not only accepted to send weapons to Ukraine. But also announced a massive increase in defense spending (remember how they pussyfooted about spending 2% of their GDP in defense as per NATO's requirement?) NATO is deploying forces in countries like Poland and the Baltic Republics to remind Putin that they MIGHT take Article 5 seriously this time. And half-baked measures as they might be, This morning, The US, EU, UK and Canada agreed to kick several Russian banks out of the SWIFT system. The Ukrainian president announced that Ukraine is forming a "Foreign Legion" of sorts so foreigners can enlist and fight against the Russians. And the UK said they were fine with it and that any UK citizen who wanted to join up would be allowed to. According to the US, the Russkies have deployed about half of the forces the amassed at the border. I am guessing that Putin is going to send the rest in any minute now. Because I strongly suspect that what the best outcome as things stand right now (and probably what most of the West's leaders are hoping), is that Putin gets a "bloody nose" and retreats. I find that to be unlikely though. IF that happens, Russia's and Putin's position will be severely weakened in front of their allies and even Russian public opinion. I agree with you that he figured he could get away with gobbling up Ukraine because of the current situation in the US and the EU. But, the fact that Germans, who were the most reluctant to act, are actually getting off their asses, suggests that the West will try harder than usual this time.

[Sigma_Orionis]

IDK I feel like when a big geopolitical thing like this happens that doesn't actually affect the USA, people project onto the administration whatever they feel about it. Like not aimed as a jab at you, just a general observation, my brother was on a rant earlier about how "this only happened because Putin saw Biden is weak!"

Trump was asked if the Russian invasion of Ukraine occurred under his administration, what he would do, but told Fox News Digital that he couldn’t say "right now."
"Well, I tell you what, I would do things, but the last thing I want to do is say it right now, because if somebody asks me that is in a position where they can utilize whatever it is I give them," Trump said. "But I certainly wouldn't want to be talking about it on television or to the media too much."

Biden weak? he might LOOK old and feeble. But that doesn't mean he is. If we're going to talk about weak leaders though, his precious Trump fits the bill perfectly. The Ukrainian comedian-turned-president that this cowardly worthless waste of DNA tried to bully two years ago has shown more statesmanship and courage in his pinky than this worthless piece of crap in all his useless mooching life. May he one day wake up in one of our slums alone and penniless. I'd be certainly running bets on how long he'd last...

[Rommie]

I think there's a good argument that Biden is not weak just because the war is happening now. When Trump was in office, Putin thought he could get away with anything (seeing as Trump literally held back arms from Ukraine in order to find dirt on Biden's son...).

I find it rather incredible that after maybe a few hours period of waiting, tops, basically everyone on Earth has come out in favor of Ukraine and against Russia. Hell, even Switzerland has broken its neutrality on this! I don' think there's ever been such a universal support vs condemnation about anything in my lifetime- I saw a joke that this is the most united we'll be until an alien invasion, and I think there's something to that!

Also, Russian economy, holy crap. That's a severe crisis now that wouldn't disappear even if Putin immediately stopped all hostilities, which I don't see him as doing. On the other hand, with the complete lack of success so far, I'd say what he's doing right now is not sustainable either on the war front. He's spending a shit ton of money for no cities taken, being universally reviled even by people like China who he presumably was relying on, his trusty oligarchs losing over $50 billion and counting, etc... the real concern right now IMO is that his solution might be to just ratchet it up.

[Sigma_Orionis]

According to this Russia has deployed 75% of the forces they had at the frontier in Ukraine. So far: No difference. I am really impressed with Ukrainians. They're going to fight this tooth and nail. I think it's just a matter of time before Russia overwhelms them though. Although I have my fingers crossed hoping that I am wrong. As for reactions throughout Europe. Yes: It's incredible. Switzerland placing sanctions on Russia, Sweden is sending weapons. Even Turkey is threatening to block Russian warships through the strait of Istanbul. Putin definitely miscalculated badly. The fact that the sanctions being placed are blocking a good chunk of his cash reserves and the absolute lack of progress in their military advances sure suggest he has overplayed his hand. He put this Nuclear Deterrence Forces on "Special Alert" to intimidate the EU and NATO. But, so far it hasn't worked at all.

I think that the "Putin Apologists" in the US are failing to get any traction. Sure, Trump's base is going to gobble up anything he says. But at least some Republicans are thinking that the way the wind blows "la masa no esta para arepas" which literally means "the cornmeal dough is not good to make arepas". As in that the general public seems to have no sympathy for Putin cheerleaders.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Case in point...

[lady_*nix]

Honestly? I'll believe it when I see it. There's been discussion of "moderate Republicans" abandoning the Trumpists since Trumpism started being a thing; every time the optimists have said "This time is different though because X, Y, and Z", and every time they've been wrong.

Mitch McConnell claims that racism and antisemitism have no place in the Republican party, but they are literally the party platform, and have been since Nixon or thereabouts if not far earlier. The difference between McConnell and Trump is no deeper than words; both want a future US very much like Putin's Russia, ruled by oligarchs and clergymen.

On which note, Republicans (and more than a few transphobic liberals) have really been coming out with the hot takes. How does transphobia relate to Russia and Ukraine, you might ask? Well... Some (journalist Jesse Singal for instance) think that decadent Western preoccupation with gender politics has let Putin realize how weak we are, and that now is a good time for him to make his move. Others (like US Rep Clay Higgins) harp on how the modern "woke" younger generations are too soft to deal with a rerun of the Cold War. And others have become enamored of Putin's own words on the matter; since he's made a habit of denouncing inclusive gender politics as corrupt, frivolous, decadent etc., and runs a government infamous for treating LGBT people like dirt.

Words that keep coming up: Decadent. Degenerate. Infantile. Soft. Effeminate. Effete. And a bit more transparently: Cuck. Soyboy. Simp. Beta.

"Most men of today are too soft to deal with the current crises, so those of us who are harder - those of us who can manage - must take control, and enforce the older, more virile ways to save society from itself." That kind of stuff. In it, Putin and Republicans share a common language and a common goal.

[lady_*nix]

On which note, I'm just gonna throw in for a sec how incredibly insulting and fucked up it is, for Republicans to be condemning feminism and "wokeness" in this moment of all moments. Ukraine's military is about 10% women. And that's to say nothing of the women volunteering in armed capacity, taking up rifles and Molotov cocktails. There are teachers, service workers, and homemakers out there sniping at Russian soldiers, and risking worse than the men (esp. knowing Russia's military history). It hardly matters how many of them self-identify as feminists.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Not going to argue with that. They've sold their party to the Tea Party Nuts. Then to Trump, They have excused and provided cover to nutjobs of every kind: anti-vaxxers, insurrectionists, eugenics fans, white supremacists and even worse. You name any form of nuttiness and they've pandered to it. So: sure, given their track record, there's a good chance they'll cave in to the Putin apologists. They have and continue to sell their so called "Culture War" to the deluded mob that is their base.I just think they'll have a harder time doing it. WWII neutralized these nutjobs for a generation. Hopefully it will happen again, and THIS time the rest of society will learn its lesson.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Orban is still holding out on supplying weapons to Ukraine though

[lady_*nix]

Yup... Birds of a feather. Even more so with Lukashenko, who last I checked was providing troops to assist Russia. And likewise that douchebag Kadyrov in Chechnya, who helped out Putin with elite troops (who the Ukrainians proceeded to slaughter), and who is previously famous for carrying out a genocide against gay men. It's especially telling that Kadyrov used to be part of the Chechen independence movement.

As cliched as it sounds, what we're seeing here is basically liberal democracy vs. authoritarianism. There's a reason people historically opposed to Putin and Russia are now fanboying over him. And even more to a point, there's a reason that old guard Soviet types are commanding armies under the banner of Christian supremacy.

(Funny thing is, I parted ways with liberalism a while ago myself. But it sure beats fascism. I will support imperfect liberals over genocidal fascists any time; leftists who won't are shitty leftists and shitty people. Accelerationism, to paraphrase an article I read recently, is the socialism of idiots.)

[lady_*nix]

Oh, that article if anyone's interested: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/a- ... from-kyiv/

[Sigma_Orionis]

So: the DSA is doing the "Many Sides" thing again? Can't say I'm surprised.

[Rommie]

On which note, I'm just gonna throw in for a sec how incredibly insulting and fucked up it is, for Republicans to be condemning feminism and "wokeness" in this moment of all moments. Ukraine's military is about 10% women. And that's to say nothing of the women volunteering in armed capacity, taking up rifles and Molotov cocktails. There are teachers, service workers, and homemakers out there sniping at Russian soldiers, and risking worse than the men (esp. knowing Russia's military history). It hardly matters how many of them self-identify as feminists.

I'll say the thing I said above again- when it's not 100% about the USA in geopolitics, people will project whatever message they find convenient to themselves.

[Sigma_Orionis]

On which note, I'm just gonna throw in for a sec how incredibly insulting and fucked up it is, for Republicans to be condemning feminism and "wokeness" in this moment of all moments. Ukraine's military is about 10% women. And that's to say nothing of the women volunteering in armed capacity, taking up rifles and Molotov cocktails. There are teachers, service workers, and homemakers out there sniping at Russian soldiers, and risking worse than the men (esp. knowing Russia's military history). It hardly matters how many of them self-identify as feminists.

LN. Trash like that won't respect any qualities on people of the "Right" gender (or any other "credential" they can come up with) when it suits them either.

Take a look at this

In reference to Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Bolsonaro said Ukrainians have "placed the hope of their nation in the hands of a comedian".

That "comedian" has shown to be a much better leader than that worthless pile of shit Bolsonaro many times over. By Bosolnaro's own deluded standards, he should be kissing Zelenskiy's feet.

I of course understand your revulsion. And I don't imply that it's not justified. My point is that Trash IS Trash IS Trash.

[lady_*nix]

@Sigma

Yeah, the national DSA are completely beclowning themselves. Local DSA is keeping it sensible though, at least in Boston. Which is fortunate, because Boston DSA is one of very few leftist orgs here that has their shit together. Their competition is mostly PSL, a bunch of accelerationist tankie fucks who openly engage in red-brown alliance bullshit. PSL have been observed counterprotesting DSA counterprotesters during Trumpist rallies, just openly aiding the Trumpists because they hate liberalism more than fascism.

This situation is also not abnormal for DSA, by the way. They're a registered charitable organization; IDK, maybe having a bunch of dead weight on top goes with the territory.

@Rommie

Fair, and it's not like I'm immune to that. I think there are also other things going on though, and that the main one is we're entering multiple crisis points of global human civilization. Across the world there are different responses to that, but humans are gonna human, so the main responses fall under either

a) being part of the "reality based community" and dealing with the ugly actual nature of things

Or

b) retreating into fantasy, usually with the help of charismatic strong men and/or all-encompassing ideology

I'd say the ad-hoc alliance between different archconservative factions comes out of their being all more or less the second option.

[Sigma_Orionis]

@Sigma

Yeah, the national DSA are completely beclowning themselves. Local DSA is keeping it sensible though, at least in Boston. Which is fortunate, because Boston DSA is one of very few leftist orgs here that has their shit together. Their competition is mostly PSL, a bunch of accelerationist tankie fucks who openly engage in red-brown alliance bullshit. PSL have been observed counterprotesting DSA counterprotesters during Trumpist rallies, just openly aiding the Trumpists because they hate liberalism more than fascism.

This situation is also not abnormal for DSA, by the way. They're a registered charitable organization; IDK, maybe having a bunch of dead weight on top goes with the territory.

@Rommie

Fair, and it's not like I'm immune to that. I think there are also other things going on though, and that the main one is we're entering multiple crisis points of global human civilization. Across the world there are different responses to that, but humans are gonna human, so the main responses fall under either

a) being part of the "reality based community" and dealing with the ugly actual nature of things

Or

b) retreating into fantasy, usually with the help of charismatic strong men and/or all-encompassing ideology

I'd say the ad-hoc alliance between different archconservative factions comes out of their being all more or less the second option.

I already disliked the DSA because they support Maduro. The fact that a good deal of them prefer to support Putin because they dislike the Dems. In my eyes, makes those no better than the trash that passes for the US right these days.

[lady_*nix]

That's entirely fair, Sigma, but IDK what to tell you; other than that fighting for my own right to exist sometimes requires working alongside shitty people, and hoping I have enough friends to overrule them once our coalition has won. Realpolitik is sadly as much a thing on the left as on the right, and I would personally rather work with ivory tower DSA ignoramuses than with Stalinist PSL fucks who'd love to throw me in a gulag, or with Democratic party apparatchiks who think mass homelessness is an acceptable reality. In the imperial core as in Venezuela, we don't always get the allies we'd like.