So turns out that with the country LITERALLY falling apart, Hyperinflation raging and people starving
we still have people arguing on how many angels can fit on on the head of a pinI have no sympathy at all for the opposition in my country. I am of the opinion that their stupidity bought Chavez and his boys at least five years more than they would have gotten otherwise. HOWEVER they're the only game in town. If we're to get rid of Maduro and his Narco-buddies, there's nobody else.
So after all the whining on the comment section someone wrote this:
Such as it is, I think the situation can be summarized as follows:
A) The country is so broke that Maduro & Co. Can’t pay the bills and take their graft too (as the last two years have shown. those two have much higher priority than importing food and medicine).
B) The Chinese and the Russkies will NOT give us more money. Why not? they would have done it already. The Chinese just said they are “confident” we’ll be able to deal with the current situation. The Russians refinanced a US$ 3.15 Billion loan They will happily obstruct anything the US, Canada or the EU attempt at the UN Security Council. But as to give us any fresh money? hard to believe. If they were willing and/or able to do it, they would have done it already
C) The sanctions set by the US & Co do not allow Maduro or any his cronies to refinance the debt, the only way around that seems to have the AN on board
D) There’s been talk that bondholders will not force an acceleration and try to confiscate any assets owned by Venezuela or PDVSA because it’s going to be a messy default and they have hope that they’ll get payed, even if they’re late payments. Well, Maduro can show all the willingness to pay he wants. But the ability for Venezuela to pay is becoming more questionable every week. SO, I find it hard to believe that there will be no acceleration in the near future.
E) Any refinancing deal will require a radical change in our country’s current economic policies. MOST PROBABLY will also require the assistance of our favorite “Imperialist Organization” (i.e. The IMF)
F) It’s very hard to believe that the Maduro Government will implement the changes required by E)
Based on the above. Plus (for whatever is worth) international pressure. I think that Maduro has no choice but to negotiate with the MUD. He (or any Chavista for that matter) of course would never admit to that, but I think that at most, with the Russian refinancing, he has three or four months before entering a messy default.
This leads me to think that the MUD’s position ought to be:
Non-Negotiable: Elections supervised by international observers by March 2018
What can the MUD negotiate with Maduro?
– Who’d get amnesty: Padrino Lopez and his top Generals most probably
– Who goes to Cuba: Maduro, Diosdado, Delcy Rodriguez, etc.
– Whether the PSUV gets to field a candidate for the March 2018 Elections
The first point HAS to be non negotiable, let’s assume that the MUD is as spineless as it’s supposed to be and decides to accept CNE supervised elections in December 2018 (which is of course, what Maduro would accept at most). Furthermore, let’s say the AN is on board with this. Hell, let’s say the US actually accepts that and allows Venezuela to enter the necessary deals to refinance its debts. Well, I suspect it would still be a non starter. The IMF won’t be on board because there are no guarantees Maduro will actually do the required changes in Economic policy. And, in turn, bondholders can simply say that if the IMF is not on board they see no reason to refinance, Game Over, we default in April.
You can discuss the morality of amnesty to the Military or Chavistas all you want. or if you will accept the Chavistas participating in the next presidential elections But the Chavistas HAVE to leave, otherwise it's game over. If we have a messy default (which IMHO it's a 100% certainty if Maduro and his boys remain in power) The government will NOT be able to use subsidies to force the people in the slums to support them. As it is it's amazing that we haven't have a repeat of the 1988 riots (no Virginia, the recent ones were not even a pale copy, back in 1988 we had martial law and curfews) Which leads me to think that the people currently in power had a hand in those 1988 riots (IIRC several left wing ex-guerrillas were jailed, right after those). This leads me to think that the real collapse will happen early next year if Maduro doesn't leave.
Edited for Spelling
