Banana Republic Newsflash

[Sigma_Orionis]

SO Maduro has his Kangaroo Supreme Court ban Guaidó from leaving the Country

"I am ready to sit down at the negotiating table with the opposition so that we could talk for the good of Venezuela," he told the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti in Caracas.

Mr Maduro ruled out an early presidential election - saying the next one was not due until 2025 - but said he would support early parliamentary elections as "a good form of political discussion".

Riiiiiight.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Well the fight is finally happening in the slums and it ain't pretty.

[Thumper]

Yikes.

[Sigma_Orionis]

yeah.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Too bad this is not in English.

The chavistas at aporrea just mentioned in a piece that during an interview given by the Russian vice-minister of foreign affairs Sergey Ryabkov to one of them Russkie Government mouthpieces: Sputnik News, that after claiming that Moscow stands ready to assist Venezuela in the case of a possible invasion he could not give any details on it.

Amusingly enough I rummaged through the Sputnik News website (both in English and Spanish). Only got this

[Sigma_Orionis]

About God dammed time

After all, it helps get the Florida vote...

[SciFiFisher]

Bolton may have also been trying to increase Maduro's paranoia about the U.S. "assisting" a regime change. Noriega thought he was safe in Panama. And look how that ended.

[SciFiFisher]

And then there is a question about where 20 tons of gold is going on that Russian 777.

[Sigma_Orionis]

And then there is a question about where 20 tons of gold is going on that Russian 777.

Rumor has it that Maduro's been selling gold to Turkey.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Damn, I hate it when I get it wrong.

This piece by Bloomberg mentions what I just said mentioned about Russia helping Venezuela. That's what I get by copying stuff from Aporrea, turns out that it was Ryabkov's boss (the foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Lavrov) who said it.

[Thumper]

You weren't wrong, just slightly inaccurate...

[Sigma_Orionis]

They say that Leopoldo Lopez is this guy's mentor. Well at least this guy learned to express himself coherently.

Juan Guaidó: Venezuelans, Strength Is in Unity

[Thumper]

You mean he doesn't just tweet out offensive, misspelled BS?

[Sigma_Orionis]

You mean he doesn't just tweet out offensive, misspelled BS?

Lol, no. That'd be more in line with Maduro if he tweeted himself. I meant that I always considered Leopoldo Lopez a lightweight. Although, of course, 2 years in prison and 2 years under house arrest sure had their impact on that.

Haven't seen any news of this in English. But, apparently the Police just showed up at Gauidó's house while he was giving a speech with his wife elsewhere. He made Maduro personally responsible if any harm comes to his daugther.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Just made the BBC

They still call him "self-proclaimed". he was "proclaimed" by the National Assembly. And it's important to mention it.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Finally made the International News.

Today there are several rallies organized by the opposition.

But the real news is that a Major General from the Air Force, just turned on Maduro.

A high-ranking Air Force general announced his support for Mr Guaidó in a video message posted online.

Gen Francisco Yanez, the force's head of strategic planning, called on other members of the military to join him in defecting. It is not clear when or where the message was recorded.

In response, the Air Force's high command accused him of treason.

[SciFiFisher]

I am on my 10th bucket of popcorn.

[Sigma_Orionis]

From the BBC piece

But a pro-Maduro crowd gathered to mark the 20th anniversary of the rise to power of his predecessor, the socialist leader Hugo Chávez. Mr Maduro accused international media of "making invisible" [not showing] demonstrations by pro-government supporters.

[Sigma_Orionis]

I am on my 10th bucket of popcorn.

Well, I'll grab the popcorn IF I see Major Generals from the Army flipping on Maduro. In any case, it's expected that the most likely to flip are mid level officers.

[SciFiFisher]

I am on my 10th bucket of popcorn.

Well, I'll grab the popcorn IF I see Major Generals from the Army flipping on Maduro. In any case, it's expected that the most likely to flip are mid level officers.

As a rule, the generals usually only turn on a countries leader if they are planning to seize power. Their fortunes are usually too intertwined with El Presidente to risk throwing him out of power. They rarely turn and then hand the power over to another civilian leader.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Yup

[Sigma_Orionis]

I am not so far of my handle as to call these two tools of Maduro. However I think they both ought to know better

First the things I agree with.

1) Yes, the Trump Administration is gambling that Maduro's clique (they don't even deserve to be called "regime") will collapse quickly

If this drags out for more than a month. I think Maduro (or another Chavista) will retain power.

2) The risks of something going south (yeah, pun intended) are quite significant.

3) Unfortunately the track record of the US when it takes these actions is at best mixed.


However, I strongly disagree with their suggestions.

Why? we're pretty much at the end of our rope. Other than an outright invasion from outside the country (which of course is one hell of a can of worms to open) I don't see a solution. Maduro and his buddies have already made clear they will not relinquish power, ever. And they HAVE to go, period.

Now for the actual suggestions:

As a first step, we recommend that Chavismo and opposition forces join to insist that the state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela’s earnings be put to the immediate disposal of the Venezuelan people for two urgent uses: food and medicine, and oil field equipment and maintenance to keep the Venezuelan economy from collapsing. The use of these funds should be guided by a joint committee of the government and the National Assembly, with United Nations support. Mr. Guaidó, who has been handed Venezuela’s oil earnings by United States decisions, should immediately suggest such a solution in the interest of the nation’s survival and peace.

Right, these nutjobs were so much in denial,that they didn't even bother with issuing larger denomination bills when hyperinflation went bananas (not to mention the "currency re-valuation" done past August) and even now refuse humanitarian aid to enter the country and they're going to agree to this? Sorry. I think Rodriguez and Sachs are living in a different world.

Second, both sides should agree to an interim government of experts to help bring Venezuela’s hyperinflation and economic collapse to an end. This interim government should have a limited mandate for economic stabilization and recovery, to carry the nation to new elections within one to two years. Leaders of the current government, possibly including Mr. Maduro, would play a limited and predetermined role in the interim government — for example retaining control of national defense — but their powers would be circumscribed and would not include the economy and reform of the electoral system.
The agreement should also include the appointment of new independent electoral authorities, which would be tasked with rebuilding the country’s electoral institutions in order to make a free and fair election possible. The international community, backed by the United Nations Security Council, should support such stabilization efforts and accept that elections would take place only after the end of the hyperinflation and the reform of electoral institutions, when social and political conditions are suitable.

Sorry, After 5 years of listening to Maduro's cheap excuses of "Economic War" when they're pretty well aware of the inflationary impact of their policies, I find it pretty hard to believe Maduro and his boys would agree to this. In any case, see my first point. As for appointing new electoral authorities. I should remind Rodriguez and Sachs that Maduro's clique padded the Supreme Court with cronies so they could derail the call for a referendum in 2015. Or that the last three elections were extremely suspect BECAUSE the current authorities have sided with the executive every time. Why would Maduro agree to this?

Third, the transition government and the framework for future elections should be based on respect for the separation of powers and the independence of the judiciary, and the protection of human rights. Venezuela’s neighbors, above all, should champion negotiation and compromise rather than winner-take-all politics. Venezuela’s recovery, healing and peace are the nation’s, and the region’s, most urgent needs.

Uhhhh.. Hello? Chavistas have NEVER respected separation of powers. Why would they now do so out of the goodness of their hearts?

Edited for Clarity

[SciFiFisher]

The people who wrote that article are assuming everyone involved is a rational actor. Or, they wrote it from the point of view that if everyone involved were a rational stakeholder this is what would help resolve the current situation. Apparently, they are unaware that posting fairytales in New York Times do not make them true.

[Sigma_Orionis]

The people who wrote that article are assuming everyone involved is a rational actor. Or, they wrote it from the point of view that if everyone involved were a rational stakeholder this is what would help resolve the current situation. Apparently, they are unaware that posting fairytales in New York Times do not make them true.

What pissed me off the most is that Francisco Rodriguez knows all this pretty well. He was an early Chavez supporter that was ousted by them 15 years ago. BECAUSE they didn't like it when he called them out for being full of bull.

In September 2000, I left American academia to take over a research team with functions broadly similar to those of the U.S. Congressional Budget Office. I had high expectations for Chávez's government and was excited at the possibility of working in an administration that promised to focus on fighting poverty and inequality. But I quickly discovered how large the gap was between the government's rhetoric and the reality of its political priorities.

Soon after joining the National Assembly, I clashed with the administration over underfunding of [the program] which had been created by Chávez to coordinate the distribution of resources to antipoverty programs. The law establishing the fund included a special provision to ensure that it would benefit from rising oil revenues. But when oil revenues started to go up, the Finance Ministry ignored the provision ... When my office pointed out this inconsistency, the Finance Ministry came up with [a] creative accounting gimmick ... [whose] effect was to direct resources away from the poor even as oil profits were surging.
— Francisco Rodríguez, An Empty Revolution: The Unfulfilled Promises of Hugo Chávez, Foreign Affairs March/April 2008

So, he ought to know by now that negotiating with people like this is a waste of time.

As for Jeffrey Sachs. Well, he certainly has a lot of experience dealing with foreign governments and doesn't strike me as being too left of center. He seems pretty much assuming what you say though. That there are rational actors on both sides. I think he's wrong no so much because of Maduro & Co's ideological obtuseness, but because they are scared shitless of ending up like Gadaffi, OR in Jail in the US for Drug Trafficking (if all the rumors are true). NO agreement (short of exile, with the inherent risk of being indicted of criminal charges for drug trafficking) is going to save them from that.

[Sigma_Orionis]

Well, so far. 10 EU nations have recognized Maduro. (the same piece stated it was eight this morning and had to be corrected).

The case of Italy is "schizophrenic". They have a coalition between left and right wingers. So, the left wingers back Maduro and the right wingers Gauidó. Very typical of them I'm afraid